Fernando Tatis Jr. Remains in Limbo as Padres’ Slide Continues

A 23-year-old star shortstop walks into a health care provider’s workplace and… properly, we don’t precisely know what occurs subsequent, no less than within the case of Fernando Tatis Jr. Even after Tatis had his left wrist examined on Monday by the surgeon who repaired the fracture he sustained throughout the offseason, the Padres have but to announce a timetable for his return. He has been cleared to renew practically all baseball-related exercise apart from swinging a bat at full depth, and till he can, he’s in a holding sample. In the meantime, the crew is within the midst of a four-week skid after briefly supplanting the Dodgers atop the NL West.

The uncertainty is par for the course, as the whole saga of Tatis’s wrist damage is somewhat murky. In early December, shortly after the lockout started, he was reportedly concerned in a motorbike accident within the Dominican Republic, by way of which he sustained “minor scrapes.” He apparently didn’t start feeling the results of the damage till he started taking swings in mid-February in preparation for spring coaching. On March 14, with the lockout lastly over, the crew announced that x-rays revealed he had suffered a fracture; when requested in regards to the bike accident on the time, the shortstop responded, “Which one?” and acknowledged “a pair incidents” with out additional specificity. Tatis underwent surgery to restore his scaphoid bone on March 16, at which period common supervisor A.J. Preller estimated a three-month restoration and a mid-June return.

That timetable proved to be too optimistic. As of early Might, Tatis was operating and taking grounders, however on June 14, Preller told reporters, “One other MRI scan continues to indicate therapeutic, however it was not fairly on the degree for … a full inexperienced mild.” In different phrases, he had not been cleared to hit, although he was in a position to play catch at full depth. Eight days later, he was in a position to swing “at 40% depth” for what appearing supervisor Ryan Christenson called “a programs examine” (supervisor Bob Melvin was in COVID-19 protocol on the time). After a go to to docs on June 28, Tatis mentioned he anticipated to be taking swings in two weeks, however he didn’t get the anticipated inexperienced mild in Monday’s follow-up.

Through the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee, the delay displays the crew exercising warning as a result of there’s not a full consensus from among the many docs the Padres are consulting on whether or not Tatis has healed sufficient to start swings:

A number of folks insist Tatis has had no setbacks.
As acknowledged in earlier tweet, crew is being extraordinarily cautious. As is commonly the case in these conditions, docs differ on opinions re: what’s “sufficient” therapeutic.
Tatis may start swing development by the weekend.

— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) July 14, 2022

As soon as Tatis is cleared, which could possibly be at some point this weekend, the expectation is that his “development from dry swings to swinging in opposition to reside pitching is anticipated to take about 10 days,” after which he’ll go on a rehab task whose size of time will likely be dictated by how snug he feels and the way shortly he will get on top of things. Thus, it seems like he gained’t be again till the top of this month or early in August.

For the skidding Padres, the return of the reigning NL residence run champion can’t come quickly sufficient. San Diego performed excellent baseball by the primary 10 weeks of the season; by June 22, the crew was 44–27, homeowners of the NL’s third-best report behind the Mets (45–26) and Dodgers (42–25) and in a digital tie for first place with the latter atop the NL West. The Padres had spent seven of the earlier 9 days with no less than a share of first place as properly, even briefly nudging the Dodgers out of the highest spot for the one time for the reason that starting of Might.

Since then, nevertheless, the Padres have gone 6–14 (.300) for the NL’s second-worst report because the Dodgers have gone an NL-best 16–5. That’s created a 9.5-game swing within the standings, all however wiping out San Diego’s probability to win the division. The Padres’ .277 Pythagorean Winning Percentage suggests issues may have been even worse.

The Padres have gotten simply an 83 wRC+ from the shortstops they’ve used instead of Tatis, however that break up is misleading. Ha-Seong Kim, who has made 59 begins on the place, has supplied a 99 wRC+ in that function and a 102 mark total, making 17 extra begins at third base in Manny Machado’s stead. Kim is hitting .239/.329/.364 with 5 homers and 4 steals and has supplied a mixed 6.7 UZR, 5 DRS, and three RAA on the two positions. Rookie C.J. Abrams has began 26 occasions at shortstop however has hit for only a 72 wRC+ on the place and a 74 mark total by way of a .233/.278/.328 line. To be honest, the 21-year-old rookie had simply 42 video games at Double-A and none at Triple-A when the Padres introduced him to the majors within the wake of Tatis’s damage. He’s been a bit higher (.279/.286/.377, 87 wRC+) since getting back from a six-week stint at Triple-A El Paso when Machado suffered a sprained ankle, and Melvin has praised his progress. Nonetheless, even with that enchancment (to not point out some temporary experimentation within the outfield), he’s netted zero WAR and will discover himself again within the minors as soon as reinforcements arrive.

Kim’s sturdy work has the Padres once more mulling the concept of taking part in Tatis within the outfield, one thing they did for a few month final yr after he returned from a bout of left shoulder irritation in mid-August. He made 16 begins in proper discipline and 7 in middle and didn’t injure or embarrass himself; the small-sample metrics counsel he was a contact under common. Tatis said just a few weeks in the past that he’s open to the chance however that he had but to work on the market. The reality is {that a} non permanent transfer would make a complete lot of sense given the form of this roster, as a result of the Padres’ outfield is a flat-out catastrophe. Collectively, they’ve gotten a .220/.303/.346 (89 wRC+) efficiency and a internet 2.4 WAR from their three outfield spots; each middle discipline and proper discipline (0.4 WAR apiece) are certain for my upcoming Substitute Stage Killers collection highlighting the largest lineup holes on contending groups.

The Padres outfielder who has supplied the majority of the optimistic manufacturing, left fielder Jurickson Profar, has accounted for two.0 WAR, hitting .242/.343/.397 (115 wRC+), however he suffered a concussion and a neck pressure by way of a terrifying collision with Abrams on July 7 and was positioned on the seven-day IL. Fortunately, he seems to be on his method again, starting a rehab task on Thursday night time and going 0-for-4 with a stroll for Single-A Lake Elsinore; he could possibly be activated as quickly as Friday. That Lake Elsinore lineup additionally featured Wil Myers, who went 1-for-3 with a stroll and a homer within the third sport of his rehab task. Myers has been restricted to 32 video games (all in proper discipline) this season by a proper thumb contusion and proper knee irritation, the latter of which has sidelined him since early June. When obtainable, he’s hit a meager .234/.276/.306 (65 wRC+) in 134 PA for the Padres, producing simply 0.1 WAR.

Profiting from Myers’ absence is Nomar Mazara, who was launched by the Tigers after simply 50 video games final yr, signed a minor league deal in March, and spent all of April and Might with El Paso. Since becoming a member of the crew when Myers went down in early June, the 27-year-old has hit a scorching .314/.368/.429 (130 wRC+) in 114 PA. Remarkably, his 0.7 WAR is approaching his profession excessive of 0.9, set 2018 with the Rangers; for all of his uncooked energy, he has by no means put collectively even a one-win season attributable to low on-base percentages and subpar protection. He’s elevating the ball greater than regular — his 35.7% groundball fee is a profession low and his 16.6 diploma common launch angle is a profession excessive — however he’s barreling simply 3.6% of batted balls and is properly forward of his Statcast anticipated stats (.275 xBA/.393 xSLG), suggesting that this run could possibly be fleeting. For the second, the lefty-swinging Mazara no less than owns the lengthy half of a proper discipline platoon. Righty-swinging José Azocar, a 26-year-old rookie who has hit .229/.277/.321 in 141 PA, clearly isn’t the reply as his platoon-mate.

The Padres have gotten even much less offense from middle discipline by way of a .186/.282/.314 (75 wRC+) line. Almost all of that’s on Trent Grisham (.192/.295/.334, 85 wRC+), who seems to have forgotten the best way to hit after producing a 109 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR in 2020–21. Earlier this week, the Padres known as up prospect Esteury Ruiz, a 23-year-old Dominican speedster who has hit an eye-opening .333/.467/.560 with 13 homers and a minors-leading 60 steals (in 69 makes an attempt) in 77 video games break up between San Antonio and El Paso. Whereas he’s seen time in any respect three outfield spots, 56 of his appearances have been in middle discipline; since being promoted, he’s began twice in left and as soon as in middle, going 4-for-12 with a double, a triple, and a steal, all in opposition to the Rockies at Coors Area. He made a big gaffe in his main league debut, although, getting caught stealing for the third out of the eighth inning with Kim on the plate representing the tying run; the Padres misplaced that one, 5–3. Oof.

Ruiz was rated as a 35+ Future Worth prospect as of Might, when he was ranked twenty fifth on our Padres prospect list. He’s acquired 70-grade velocity and common uncooked energy — a mix that drew Alfonso Soriano comparisons at one level, partially as a result of he was a nasty second baseman earlier than transferring to the outfield. All of his different instruments are no less than a grade under common, along with his hit device graded at 30/35, although it’s value noting he’s placing out at a 17.4% fee this yr, down from 20.7% final yr and 26.6% in 2019. From Eric Longenhagen’s report:

There are nonetheless swing-and-miss points lurking beneath the floor right here, particularly in opposition to excessive fastballs. Ruiz remains to be more likely to have a well-below-average hit device, however he has sufficient energy to be harmful and is very adept at hooking breaking balls that don’t end down the left discipline line. Ruiz’s affect velocity has helped him transition from second base to left discipline, and now to middle discipline, the place he started to see time in 2021. He has barely performed 50 profession video games in middle, and he typically exhibits the discomfort and tentative physique language of somebody new to the place whereas circling fly balls, however he undoubtedly has the lengthy velocity to play there with time, and that velocity performs on the bases as properly; Ruiz stole 23 bases throughout the first month of play in 2022. His velocity is so disruptive that it alone ought to give him massive league utility as a top-shelf pinch runner, with the possibility that he may run into one off the bench the cherry on high of an up/down outfielder sundae.

An outfield pieced along with a wholesome Profar, Tatis, and a Mazara/Myers platoon may present an offensive improve, with Grisham offering defensive assist and Ruiz some tactical utilization off the bench. That wouldn’t clear up the entire Padres’ issues; for one factor, Eric Hosmer has hit simply .237/.295/.313 for a 72 wRC+ since I highlighted him on Might 3, when he was off to a scorching .382/.447/.579 begin. On the pitching facet of issues, the crew has been working with a six-man rotation which has helped management the innings counts of rookie MacKenzie Gore and Tommy John surgical procedure returnee Mike Clevinger, however the unit has been hit for a 5.07 ERA and 4.66 FIP over the previous 30 days, with Blake Snell strolling 13.8% of hitters en path to a 5.22 ERA and three.69 FIP. The bullpen has been shaky over the previous month as properly (.4.74 ERA, 3.60 FIP), and nearer Taylor Rogers has yielded runs in 5 straight appearances, blowing two saves and inflating his ERA to 4.04.

Preller has usually taken an aggressive method to upgrading the Padres on the deadline, and this yr guarantees to be no completely different; we will anticipate him to pursue additions to the outfield and bullpen on the very least, probably by transferring a starter, and who is aware of what else. Nothing he does, nevertheless, could have a possible affect that may match the return of Tatis. Precisely when that can occur, nobody can but say.