Elite Defenders Myles Straw and Manuel Margot Sign Extensions

Final week could have been highlighted by the beginning of the 2022 common season, but it surely additionally featured a spate of contract extensions. At this time I’m going to take a more in-depth take a look at two such extensions, each involving glove-first outfielders coming into their age-27 seasons.

We’ll start with Myles Straw, the middle fielder for the Cleveland Guardians, who signed a five-year, $25 million extension, in line with Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The extension consists of club options for the 2027 and ’28 seasons that will carry the full to $41.5 million over the following seven years. Remarkably, that is the Guardians’ third extension this month with the potential to maintain a participant in Cleveland through the 2028 season — the group additionally inked offers with star third baseman José Ramírez and closer Emmanuel Clase.

2021 was Straw’s first full season as an on a regular basis participant. He came visiting to Cleveland from the Astros on the trade deadline in alternate for Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz. After the commerce, he continued to construct on his breakout marketing campaign. He ended the having posted stellar protection (11 OAA), nice baserunning (30 steals in 36 makes an attempt), and about league-average offense (98 wRC+). That well-rounded manufacturing quietly positioned him among the many greatest middle fielders in baseball final season, ending sixth in WAR on the place with 3.7:

That chart does a very good job of displaying how uncommon Straw’s profile is in comparison with his friends’, as he’s the one middle fielder on the checklist with no clearly above-average bat. These offensive limitations principally come from an absence of energy, and it’s a critical lack of energy at that, with Straw posting an ISO, Barrel% and HardHit% all under the fifth percentile. His max exit velocity is definitely above common, which may very well be an indication that extra constantly exhausting contact is hidden away someplace, however there’s simply not quite a bit to counsel that he’ll be placing up double-digit dwelling run totals anytime quickly.

That’s to not say his offensive recreation isn’t with out some strengths. Straw has a really compact swing with a flat bat path that generates loads of contact (4.7% profession SwStr%) and line drives (24.5% profession LD%). This profile performs up a bit on account of his 96th-percentile dash velocity, and he’s additionally remarkably good at squaring up the ball. The excessive finish of the Soft% leaderboard is plagued by guys like Straw who’ve restricted energy, but he’s nowhere to be discovered due to his Goldilocks strategy of hardly ever hitting it too exhausting or too tender. In reality, he had the eighth lowest Soft% last season, proper in-line with a few of the video games greatest hitters, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani.

Moreover his compact swing, his capability to make high quality contact comes from his spectacular plate self-discipline. As you may anticipate, pitchers problem Straw within the zone very often, with solely J.P. Crawford and David Fletcher seeing the next proportion of pitches in the zone final season. And but Straw nonetheless turned in an above-average stroll fee of 10.5%. This in fact comes from an elite capability to put off of pitches out of the zone. Final yr, he chased pitches solely 18.8% of the time, good for seventh best in baseball. Together with his contact-oriented swing and talent to put off nasty pitches, he has a very good basis for succesful offensive efficiency regardless of his lack of thump. Take at take a look at his ZiPS projections over the lifetime of the contract, courtesy of Dan Szymborski:

ZiPS doesn’t absolutely purchase Straw’s offensive breakout final season and nonetheless views him as a below-average hitter. This is sensible given his relative lack of monitor document, however even with that conservative outlook, you possibly can see how he ought to stay a constantly beneficial participant for the Guardians into his early 30s as he rides nice defensive worth. Straw’s velocity has remained elite within the early a part of his profession, which is an enormous a part of the place his defensive prowess comes from. His jump rating, a metric that appears on the first three seconds after contact, is lower than stellar, although, primarily on account of merely common route working. His response time and elite velocity make up for this, and he’s an ideal defender regardless of which general metric you take a look at, however extra direct routes to the ball may positively enhance his recreation, particularly if he’s going to stay a superlative defender as he ages out of that world-class velocity.

Previous to this extension, Straw was set to succeed in free company after the 2025 season at age 30; this contract buys out a minimum of one yr of free company and probably three if the Guardians train the 2 choices. Given his sturdy efficiency final season, the deal is sensible for each events. The Guardians can lock in a reasonably cheap contract, one that would look nice if Straw retains placing up three-plus-win seasons. Straw, in the meantime, locks within the security of assured cash and constant raises even along with his pretty restricted monitor document.

Subsequent, we flip toManuel Margot, who, as a glove-first outfielder with loads of velocity, is similar to Straw in a whole lot of methods. As reported by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Occasions, Margot and the Rays agreed final week on a two-year extension that can hold the 27-year-old in Tampa by way of a minimum of the 2024 season. Margot is ready to make $7 million in 2023 and $10 million in ’24. There’s additionally a $12 million mutual choice for the 2025 season with a $2 million buyout, bringing the assured quantity to $19 million. This deal buys out two years of free company, and probably a 3rd.

Since becoming a member of the Rays previous to the 2020 season, Margot has been a key piece of what’s arguably the most effective defensive outfield in baseball; the group ranked first in Outs Above Common final season and was second in 2020. Margot is an elite middle fielder in his personal proper however sharing an outfield with Kevin Kiermaier, one of many few who may very well be thought-about higher, has meant Margot has primarily performed proper area, a task he has greater than excelled at:

By OAA, Margot was the sport’s greatest outfielder final season, and he’s routinely been within the high 10 over time. He’s merely a incredible outfielder, one who’s as great going again on the ball as he’s coming in. However whereas he’s solely 27, his underlying velocity abilities have already began to take a success. The place as soon as Margot had a 99th percentile dash velocity (over 30 ft per second), he’s been steadily declining year-over-year, down to twenty-eight.6 ft/sec final season, good for the 87th percentile. Margot remains to be fairly quick, however this dip has proven up within the jumps he’s getting within the outfield, which dropped to a career-low eightieth percentile in 2021.

As a hitter, Margot has by no means put up even a league-average offensive season, though 2021 noticed him submit a career-high 95 wRC+, his third straight season of slight enchancment in that regard. He makes loads of contact (he boasts an 87th-percentile strikeout fee), which retains his batting common above water, however there’s little or no energy to talk of; his common exit velocity, barrel fee, and ISO are all under common. The one space the place Margot confirmed some notable enchancment in 2021 was in his frequency of creating exhausting contact, as his HardHit% climbed over league common. It may very well be an indication of some energy growth.

One of many issues that has held again Margot’s general offensive recreation is his efficiency in opposition to righties, in opposition to whom he has a profession .285 wOBA. Thoughts you, he’s hardly prolific in opposition to lefties, however his .328 profession wOBA in opposition to southpaws is way more formidable. On the floor, 2021 was one other poor displaying in opposition to righties (.281 wOBA) however he really confirmed some underlying enchancment and completed with a career-high .310 xwOBA and above common exit velocity in opposition to them, suggesting some unhealthy luck held him again. If Margot’s enhancements in opposition to right-handed pitchers are actual, it might go a protracted method to turning him into an above-average hitter, as 68% of his profession plate appearances have come in opposition to righties. Right here’s what ZiPS thinks of Margot:

The system doesn’t anticipate a lot to alter over the lifetime of this extension. That is sensible on condition that even when the 2025 mutual choice is exercised, it’ll solely be his age-30 season. The place this contract will get fascinating, nevertheless, is in its team-wide implications, coming because it does on the heels of an offseason crammed with trade rumors surrounding Kiermaier, the Rays’ costliest participant over the following two seasons (he’s owed $12 million this season, with a $13 million membership choice for 2023). Margot’s extension may very well be an indication that the group is getting ready for all times with out Kiermaier roaming middle area. Margot is almost 5 years youthful, however given his already declining velocity, I’ve my doubts that his protection will age as gracefully as Kiermairer’s has. Kiermaier’s velocity has remained within the ninety fifth percentile or increased, at the same time as he enters his age-32 season, and his defensive skills in middle have remained elite.

In fact, this extension doesn’t should imply {that a} Kiermaier commerce is probably going. Having an abundance of nice outfield defenders is an efficient downside to have, particularly should you’re making up that offensive manufacturing at a few of the different extra defensively-minded positions, because the Rays are with Wander Franco at shortstop and Mike Zunino at catcher. The talents that Margot brings to a group that clearly values outfield protection, in addition to his continued offensive enhancements, make this a reasonably low-risk contract even when Margot’s function stays the identical as it’s now.