Dolphins vs. Buffalo Week 15: Preview & Prediction

Week 14 was straight-up miserable. On paper, a 23-17 street loss to a gifted staff doesn’t look so dangerous. Any of us devoted Dolphins followers know higher, although. It stays to be confirmed, however I’ve an actual worry that the code has been cracked on what had been a traditionally scary offense earlier than these final two video games on the Pacific Coast. In opposition to an injury-ravaged Chargers protection, the vaunted Dolphins offense simply by no means regarded proper, unable to combat by tight cross protection (and some terrible calls by the refs). This dropped our staff, as soon as 8-3, right down to 8-5 and in an actual scrap for playoff positioning. It additionally handed me one other “L” within the prediction sport:

Issues don’t get in any means simpler for our Fins, with a brief week to fly again to Miami late on Sunday evening, work out how in Hades to get their offense again on monitor, then fly as much as the frigid realm of Buffalo for his or her second sport in opposition to the Payments. The Dolphins managed a bizarre, hard-fought win over the Payments again in week 2 in South Seaside, due to a gutsy efficiency by the protection and a brutal Miami local weather that wilted half the Buffalo roster by the 4th quarter. This rematch has all kinds of implications, so let’s check out how the present model of the Fins and Payments stack up.

Stat-o-Matic

The important thing season stats for the 2 groups.

The numbers right here ought to come as no nice shock. Regardless of trying extra mortal previously month or so, the Payments have maintained a wonderful stability of offense and protection. Throw in a powerful web turnover ratio and first rate self-discipline within the penalty division, and it appears very very like the stat sheet of a really gifted, skilled 10-3 squad charging arduous for its third straight division title. The Dolphins aren’t that. As much as two weeks in the past, they regarded like a stable membership with a doubtlessly devastating offense. After scoring practically at will in opposition to a string of weak defenses, they ran right into a pair of groups that made some key changes that Mike McDaniel and the boys apparently weren’t ready to counter. The defensive numbers for the Fins nonetheless aren’t nice, although the D has really improved. The issue is that, even if you happen to’re an improved protection, you’re going to have a tough time in case your offense forces you to run on the market for about 628 snaps each sport whereas they crank out one 2-minute drive after one other.

So the numbers don’t look nice. Something in Buffalo’s current historical past on movie that might encourage optimism?

Buffalo in Weeks 13 & 14: at New England and vs. NY Jets

Disclaimer: That is the purpose in writing this text the place my common work life went berserk and wore me out. The remaining sections are abbreviated from their typical kind.

These two intra-divisional video games bore quite a lot of similarities. Type of ugly. Scores nonetheless shut at halftime. Buffalo struggling in opposition to good NE and NY defenses to search out the offensive rhythm that made them so terrifying earlier within the season. However in the end the Payments’ offensive expertise out-performed the Pats’ and Jets’ offensively-challenged squads, pulled away, and bagged two extra wins. They didn’t come with out value, although. The Payments misplaced a couple of extra key gamers to accidents, with Von Miller being probably the most essential. The approaching weeks will inform if the two-game lead they constructed within the division with these two wins will offset the losses of personnel.

Dolphins vs. Payments Unit Matchups

Dolphins Offense vs. Payments Protection: Three weeks in the past, I’d have regarded favorably on this one. After the final two weeks, although? Not a lot. The 49ers and Chargers each employed defensive methods – particularly, much more man-to-man and press protection – that enormously restricted what had up till then been a nigh-unstoppable Dolphins passing assault. I’ve to count on the Payments to strive the very same factor till Tua and the remainder of the offense show that they will counter it successfully. The Payments are lacking some key defenders, however they’re nonetheless a lot gifted and constructed to place a variety of stress on the Fins’ cross catchers. Benefit: Payments.

Dolphins Protection vs. Payments Offense: As said, the Payments offense has been a bit out of kinds recently. Possibly it’s been the elbow harm to Josh Allen a couple of weeks in the past. Possibly accidents to a couple offensive linemen. Or possibly it’s simply the identical malaise that we noticed final season with each the Payments and Chiefs, the place a kind of boredom over their very own dominance made them a bit extra weak than regular. Regardless of the case, the Fins’ protection has been spectacular these previous few weeks. The opponent scoring numbers may not counsel that, however I grasp that on a Miami offense that’s left the D out to dry means too usually, forcing them to remain on the sphere for 75 and 74 snaps in San Francisco and Los Angeles, respectively (by comparability, the offense took 42 and 47 snaps in those self same video games). I do assume the Dolphins protection will forestall the Payments from doing an excessive amount of injury and can acquit themselves effectively. Nonetheless, the Payments nonetheless have an excessive amount of confirmed expertise for me to assume that Miami has a leg up. Benefit: Payments.

Different Components

Sure, the accidents are there for each groups; nevertheless, I believe they nearly even out. Sure, the Payments are actually with out Von Miller. That’s large. However the Fins could also be lacking a couple of key guys, or at the least have them on the market taking part in harm: Terron Armstead and Jeff Wilson (although it’s not like Wilson’s been getting a ton of run in current video games). For a mid-December sport, these groups are about as wholesome as one might count on.

The biggie is the climate. As I write this, a number of inches of snow have already fallen, with many extra to come back over the following a number of hours. In brief, this does not favor the Dolphins in any means. This staff has but to indicate that it will possibly play effectively in any kind of inclement climate, and snow usually wipes out any benefit that your speedy gamers provide you with. To achieve some of these circumstances, you want a powerful working sport, which the Dolphins completely should not have. On the plus aspect, the Fins are good at stopping the run, so this sport may very well be one other nasty, low-scoring affair the place two or three “large” performs will likely be sufficient to get the win.

Prediction: Dolphins 13, Payments 23

I simply can’t see a win right here, as superior as it will be. The Dolphins regarded all kind of discombobulated final week, regardless of coming off a loss that simply screamed for them to regulate and do one thing completely different. They didn’t, and so they received embarrassed in primetime on nationwide TV. Nicely, the circumstances of this sport are such that the choices for adjustment are actually extraordinarily restricted, and now isn’t the time to check out new methods. I believe we see our Dolphins skid to their second three-game dropping streak of the season and principally drop out of the race for the AFC East division title.

Please inform me I’m mistaken. Inform me that there’s hope. I simply have bother discovering it in opposition to Buffalo this week. Fins Up!