Dansby Swanson Heads to the Windy City

Why would you need to add a top-tier shortstop in free company? I can consider loads of causes. Possibly you misplaced simply such a participant to free company this offseason; in any case, for each star reaching free company, there’s a workforce that employed them in 2022 and now has a gap on the place. Possibly you need to enhance a workforce that’s strong elsewhere however has room to enhance at shortstop; the Phillies match that description precisely and snagged Trea Turner earlier this month. Possibly your plan to advertise a prime prospect is beginning to really feel dangerous; if Aaron Judge had left New York, the Yankees may need changed a few of his manufacturing within the type of a slugging shortstop.

Or perhaps your workforce simply needs to get higher and spend more cash to take action. For instance:

BREAKING: Cubs and Dansby Swanson have an settlement on a seven-year deal for $177 million, per supply. https://t.co/9cmtK9mLzL

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) December 17, 2022

The Cubs weren’t near rivalry in 2022, going 74–88 with underlying numbers that largely agreed with that evaluation of their expertise. They’ve fascinating gamers on the main league roster and promising prospects nearing main league debuts, however even when a number of of these conditions labored out, there’s a significant hole between 74 wins and the 93 the Cardinals posted to win the division. Heck, there’s a significant hole between 74 and 86, the mark the Brewers hit in a down yr for them. If Chicago wished to compete in 2023, it couldn’t sit pat.

Thankfully for its playoff possibilities, it seems that the workforce by no means deliberate to. In 2021 and ’22, the Cubs shed payroll as shortly as they shed wins. In 2019, they boasted the third-highest payroll within the majors, a cool $221 million. They checked in at $144 million (thirteenth) in ’21 and $151 million (14th) in ’22. That’s hardly Guardians-esque, however it’s additionally meaningfully lower than after they had been competing for World Collection titles.

In reality, the 2022 Cubs workforce felt like a skeleton ready for some flesh to be added to its bones. I all the time implore rebuilding groups to hunt out high-upside gamers who can both be part of the subsequent aggressive core or fetch one thing priceless in commerce. Chicago did an important job of that, each giving it personal prospects loads of alternative and letting minor league journeymen have an opportunity within the majors.

Within the meantime, the Cubs additionally began signing good gamers final offseason, including each Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to a workforce that definitely didn’t want their contributions instantly. It’s arduous to go from disastrous to wonderful in a single offseason, so beginning early is smart. I nonetheless don’t assume they’re going to compete for the NL Central crown this yr, however with Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger, and now Swanson added to the roster, they’ll be much more aggressive than they’ve been for the previous few years.

In case you glided by his 2022 season alone, Swanson would benefit a bigger contract than the one he signed with the Cubs. He performed in each sport, batted almost 700 instances, and posted each his finest offensive and defensive season. Put all of it collectively, and he was price 6.4 WAR, the Eleventh-best mark amongst all hitters. His season was a hair higher than that of Turner, and he’s a yr youthful — and Turner received $300 million from the Phillies. It’s pure to marvel what warning indicators groups noticed in Swanson.

The apparent one is that he’s solely been this good for one season. Earlier than 2022, Swanson felt extra like an above-average starter than a real star. He’s all the time been a wonderful defender, however his profession batting line earlier than 2022 labored out to an 88 wRC+. That’s like José Iglesias, or maybe a toned-down model of Andrelton Simmons — a glove-first starter who may spike the occasional All Star season on the again of batting line.

If that’s Swanson’s true expertise degree, he’s much less All-Star and extra function participant. Beneath the hood, although, I believe there’s good cause to consider that his true expertise degree is, if not a repeat of 2022, someplace between that and his earlier profession. Why? As a result of whereas there are many holes in his offensive sport, he hits the snot out of the baseball, plain and easy.

The above comparisons to Iglesias and Simmons may make sense from a complete offensive contribution perspective, however Swanson is nothing in any respect like them on the plate. He’s not a slap-hitting contact fiend; he’s mainly the other of that, in truth. For the previous three years, he’s been stinging the ball on contact, posting barrel charges above 10% in annually, rating within the prime 15% within the sport. A few of that’s as a result of he places a ton of balls into the air — you may’t get credit score for a barrel in the event you don’t hit it within the air — however he additionally makes numerous loud contact.

Over time, Swanson has gotten higher and higher at attending to his energy. That’s how you find yourself with the next remoted energy in 2022, the yr of the brand new useless ball, than in 2019, the height of the rabbit ball period. He’s hit extra dwelling runs in his previous two seasons over a mixed 1,349 plate appearances than in his earlier 2,038 plate appearances in a higher-offense period. Group 2020 in with New Dansby, and that’s 40 homers in his first 1,774 plate appearances adopted by 62 in the newest 1,613 journeys to the plate.

ZiPS buys into Swanson’s newfound pop, projecting him for a slugging share almost 20 factors above his profession mark in 2023. It sees him roughly the identical manner I do, as an above-average bat regardless of his early-career struggles:

ZiPS would have supplied Swanson nearly precisely the contract he received: $176.2 million over seven years, solely $800,000 underneath his precise deal. And whereas we’re on the subject of ZiPS, it additionally spit out 2023 percentiles that recommend there’s an actual likelihood he’ll accumulate some MVP votes:

The explanation that Swanson’s plus energy doesn’t translate into an excellent higher projection is one other manner he’s not like Iglesias or Simmons: he strikes out a ton. He struck out 26.1% of the time in 2022, and he’s at an excellent 26% over his previous three high-power years. Swinging tougher and making an attempt to hit dwelling runs has clearly labored, however it hasn’t been with out downsides. He additionally doesn’t stroll a lot regardless of having an honest thought of the strike zone, as a result of he swings early and infrequently making an attempt to launch fastballs into the seats.

Fastballs? Oh yeah, positively fastballs. Each hitter in baseball would favor to see fastballs to secondary pitches, however Swanson is an excessive model of that. Over the previous three years, he’s been downright wonderful towards each four-seamers and sinkers, roughly matching Pete Alonso’s manufacturing towards these two pitches. That’s dwelling run champion Pete Alonso, profession 138 wRC+ Pete Alonso, top-of-the-line energy hitters within the sport. Swanson appears nothing like Alonso, however in relation to smashing heaters, they’re shockingly related.

Throw Swanson anything, and the story modifications. He’s within the prime quarter of manufacturing towards fastballs and the *backside* quarter of manufacturing towards all different pitches, cutters included. Most of that comes down to hassle with sliders; he each misses too typically when he swings at them and doesn’t do sufficient injury when he connects. To make use of the Alonso comparability once more, he slugged .717 when he put a slider into play final yr; Swanson checked in at .485. He’s an influence hitter, little question, however it all comes down as to if or not he can punish sufficient fastballs to paper over gaps elsewhere.

I believe he can. He already sees a metric ton of sliders — 26.5% final yr — and nonetheless manages to hunt sufficient fastballs to hit for energy. In reality, I believe that has quite a bit to do together with his low stroll charge. He swings at early fastballs within the zone very aggressively, as a result of he is aware of his personal strengths and weaknesses. It’d minimize down on his possibilities of strolling — you may’t stroll in the event you don’t take pitches — however you may’t make an omelet with out cracking a number of eggs, and Swanson is barely making omelets out of fastballs.

You may also discover, within the above ZiPS projection, that Swanson’s protection is projected to start out sturdy and gently decline over time. I don’t assume he’s 15 runs above common defensively at shortstop, which is the mark he put up in 2022 in line with Statcast. I’m utterly keen to consider ZiPS’ view, although; that will make him an important defensive shortstop however not the standout finest defender within the majors. That sounds about proper to me; you may’t watch Swanson and deny he’s defensively gifted, however you can also’t watch him with out questioning whether or not he has a sufficiently big arm to be really elite. Statcast has pegged his arm within the fifteenth percentile in every of the previous three years.

I believe it’s truthful to say that Swanson is the fourth-best shortstop out of the highest 4 who had been in the marketplace this yr. Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts all have meaningfully increased offensive ceilings. However I’ll degree with you: the extra I appeared into Swanson whereas getting ready to write down this text, the extra I revised my opinion of him increased.

It’s straightforward to pigeonhole him as a blah hitter who spiked a profession yr he’ll by no means repeat heading into free company. I don’t purchase it, although. I believe he’s a thumping hitter who might be above common on the plate even when he doesn’t determine one thing out towards breaking balls, however with the prospect for extra if one thing clicks and he will get as much as even common towards them. It’s not like he’s signing for the change in David Ross’ sofa or something, however it’s not the type of contract that can limit Chicago’s skill so as to add different gamers, even when the workforce needs to function on a decent price range. An affordable deal for a strong participant with the prospect to be greater than that? I just like the sound of it.

Swanson most likely received’t work out how you can ascend to a brand new degree. He doesn’t need to, although; have a look at these ZiPS projections. That’s a borderline All-Star yearly even when he by no means figures out how you can hit sliders. I don’t assume it’ll block anybody on the Cubs, both; Nico Hoerner can be an important defender, however he’ll slide over to second base and enhance all the infield. Throw in Bellinger, and this might be top-of-the-line defensive items in baseball, notably up the center.

The Cubs aren’t a completed product but. They may use a primary baseman, and perhaps some extra pitching. The Cardinals might be arduous to catch even when they make these modifications, not less than in 2023. However that was going to be the case nearly no matter what Chicago did this yr. I believe the Cubs wanted to exit and get somebody with the potential to be a star to maintain including to the core they’re beginning to develop. Possibly Swanson is miscast as the very best participant on a workforce, however he’s a wonderful shortstop, and if the they’re planning on spending again to their championship-era payroll when their subsequent wave of prospects arrives, beginning with him in the course of every thing makes good sense to me.