Daniel Vogelbach Deal Continues Toronto’s Tepid Offseason

The Blue Jays signed a lefty-swinging first baseman/designated hitter whose identify begins with a V and an O, nevertheless it wasn’t Joey Votto. As place gamers report back to camps, the longtime Purple and all-time leader in video games performed by a Canadian-born main leaguer stays a free agent. As a substitute, the Blue Jays added Daniel Vogelbach on a minor league cope with an invite to spring coaching. At his greatest, the well-traveled 31-year-old may also help the Blue Jays, however in context, his limitations present yet one more reminder of the group’s underwhelming offseason.

Vogelbach’s deal requires him to make $2 million if he’s within the majors, according to the New York Put up’s Jon Heyman. That is truly his second go-round with the Blue Jays, however you’re forgiven if you happen to want your reminiscence jogged. He spent 10 days with the group throughout the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, between being bought from the Mariners and misplaced on waivers to the Brewers; inside that span, he performed two video games, going 0-for-4 with a stroll and two strikeouts. After spending all of 2021 with the Brewers, he break up ’22 between the Pirates and Mets, with an efficient stretch-run stint for the latter, after which spent final yr in Queens as properly.

Regardless of a productive opening month to his 2023 season, Vogelbach hit simply .213/.326/.348 (92 wRC+) via the top of June, a span that included an eight-day benching for the needs of a psychological break. He was a lot better from July onward, batting .258/.355/.475 (131 wRC+) with eight homers in 138 plate appearances, besides, he was an afterthought in September. He made simply 5 begins that month, none within the Mets’ closing 16 video games, with simply three of his 24 plate appearances for September coming in that span. Unsurprisingly, he was nontendered in November.

Even in a down season, Vogelbach once more confirmed a wonderful batting eye, chasing simply 24.1% of pitches exterior the strike zone and strolling 13.2% of the time; that stated, his strikeout fee crept to 25.4%, his highest since 2019. He didn’t get sufficient enjoying time to qualify for Statcast’s percentile cutoffs, however his 91.7 mph common exit velo and 50% hard-hit fee would have landed on the 86th and 93rd percentiles, respectively.

Vogelbach is a participant with apparent limitations. He didn’t play a single sport within the discipline throughout his Mets tenure, had simply 5 for the Pirates earlier than being dealt in July 2022, and owns DH-caliber metrics at first base for his seven-year profession (1,059.2 innings, -8 RAA, -15 DRS). He went 0-for-15 with a stroll and eight strikeouts in opposition to lefties in 2023, and has been completely helpless in opposition to them for his profession (.129/.248/.215, 35 wRC+ in 323 PA). He’s by no means even tried a stolen base within the majors, a sensible alternative given his 2nd-percentile dash velocity. That’s not the best participant to suit onto a roster, and if Vogelbach does follow the Blue Jays, he’s not more likely to get a ton of enjoying time except issues go flawed elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the incumbent first baseman, and Toronto signed the righty-swinging Justin Turner to a one-year, $13 million deal to function its main DH whereas recognizing throughout the infield, as he did final yr with the Purple Sox. Turner hit for only a 105 wRC+ in opposition to righties (.273/.335/.430 in 462 PA) in 2023, however which will have been an aberration given his 132 wRC+ in opposition to them over the earlier three seasons. He doesn’t want a platoon accomplice.

Given the dimensions of the function in query, it’s not tremendously arduous to know why the Blue Jays signed Vogelbach as an alternative of the 40-year-old Votto, who turned a free agent after 17 seasons with the Reds and who scuffled in 2023. Coming off of August 2022 surgical procedure to restore tears in his left rotator cuff and biceps, Votto didn’t make his season debut till June 19, and whereas he homered off Austin Gomber in his second plate look, he hit simply .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) with 14 homers in 208 PA. Save for his slugging share and barrel fee, neither that slash line nor his underlying Statcast numbers have been pretty much as good as these of Vogelbach.

The Blue Jays confirmed curiosity in Votto early within the offseason, with basic supervisor Ross Atkins saying, “Unbelievable status, actually dynamic persona, actually vibrant (particular person) that I do know our group would embrace… However I believe that’s the case for in all probability 15 groups.” Based mostly on Votto’s background, he added a possible for “large affect in the neighborhood if he have been to be a Toronto Blue Jay.”

Regardless of the apparent attraction, nothing ever materialized, and within the wake of the Turner signing, we are able to infer that the Blue Jays might not have been keen to supply Votto — whose 2022 manufacturing was underwhelming amid his shoulder woes — sufficient enjoying time. To this point, it doesn’t seem that any group has provided the correct mix of alternative and cash. On January 11, USA Right now‘s Bob Nightengale reported that three groups have been involved in Votto, and in his Sunday notebook just a few days later talked about the Blue Jays and Brewers as potential suits. The final report of a group’s curiosity in him got here on January 24, when Heyman related Votto to the Angels. That very same day, Reds GM Nick Krall told season ticket holders he had no plans to carry again the franchise icon. Since these sparkles of curiosity, the Blue Jays added Turner and the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins. In the meantime, the long run Corridor of Fame first baseman has popped up on the NHL All-Star Sport within the firm of Gritty and different mascots and quoted Dylan Thomas on Instagram, however in any other case, he’s been quiet on social media.

.@JoeyVotto is having the time of his life on the @NHL All-Star Sport ?

through joeyvotto/IG pic.twitter.com/hBSOQfUhCr

— Cut4 (@Cut4) February 3, 2024

The Blue Jays/Votto connection has at all times been extra speculative than substantial, however, just like the Vogelbach signing, it’s at the least attention-grabbing sufficient to underscore simply how unremarkable Toronto’s offseason has been. Coming off an 89-win season wherein it claimed the third AL Wild Card spot however made a fast two-and-through exit, the group hasn’t made something that may very well be characterised as an affect transfer, even after exhibiting indicators of grand ambitions.

For a quick time, it appeared that the Blue Jays had gained the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, however alas that rumor proved untrue. With the doable exception of signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with whom they met earlier than he selected the Dodgers as properly, nothing else they may have finished would have been as impactful. However they at the least gave the impression to be pondering huge by exhibiting sufficient curiosity in Cody Bellinger to be considered co-favorites (together with the Cubs) to signal him as Christmas approached, and he stays a free agent as of this writing. As a substitute, in late December, the Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier — a spectacular fielder however a league-average hitter who turns 34 in April — to a one-year, $10.5 million deal, presumably to be their common heart fielder between Daulton Varsho in left and George Springer in proper.

After which there’s Toronto’s strategy to its third base state of affairs. Matt Chapman hit free company after an uneven season that included a .255/.346/.449 (121 wRC+) line via August 12, when he sprained his proper center finger in a weight room mishap, and a .163/.250/.302 (54 wRC+) line the remainder of the best way; he initially missed three video games after struggling the harm, then 15 extra after making an attempt to play via it. The Blue Jays, who reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100 million over 4 or 5 years earlier than he reached free company, prolonged him a $20.325 million qualifying supply, which he declined. Like Bellinger, he stays a free agent whereas the Blue Jays have moved on. Simply after inking Kiermaier, they signed light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, then added Turner. Although he makes extra sense becoming into the utility slot vacated by Whit Merrifield, who not too long ago signed with the Phillies, Kiner-Falefa is at the moment projected to obtain essentially the most plate appearances of any Toronto participant at third base (231), with Turner, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, and Eduardo Escobar additionally within the combine. The 35-year-old Escobar, who started final season as Vogelbach’s teammate on the Mets earlier than being traded to the Angels, signed a minor league cope with a nonroster invitation final week; he’s seeking to rebound from a dismal .226/.269/.344 (66 wRC+) efficiency in 309 PA.

Between Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa, and Turner, that’s a not-so-grand complete of $38.5 million dedicated to free agent place gamers this winter, wanting sufficient cash to cowl the present-day worth of 1 season of Ohtani. Their different main league deal was for Cuban righthander Yariel Rodriguez — who spent 2020–22 with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons, primarily as a reliever — whom they signed to a five-year, $32 million contract. After pitching for Cuba within the World Baseball Traditional final yr, Rodriguez sat out the common season whereas establishing residency within the Dominican Republic so he might change into a significant league free agent. The Blue Jays intend to construct him up as a starter, however he would possibly wind up in Triple-A or in a multi-inning bullpen function as he begins his main league profession. In the meantime, the group will roll with a beginning 5 of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah, the final of these coming off a dreadful season after a top-three end within the AL Cy Younger voting in 2022. Lefty Ricky Tiedemann, no. 28 on our new Top 100 Prospects List, might assist later within the yr, however has simply 36 innings above A-ball to his identify, whereas righty Bowden Francis is being stretched out to supply extra speedy depth. Whereas they’ve been “quietly monitoring” the continued Blake Snell market, per Nightengale, the Blue Jays have by no means appeared more likely to spend huge on beginning pitching this winter; as an alternative, they’ve centered on bettering their lineup.

Final week, Atkins said, “At this level, additions that might be of significance would imply some stage of subtraction,” which didn’t sound like he was leaving the sunshine on for both Bellinger or Chapman. If this is kind of the Blue Jays’ roster, according to Roster Resource, their payroll sits at $235.7 million when it comes to precise salaries, up from $214.5 million final yr, and $248.7 million for Aggressive Stability Tax functions, a hair forward of final yr’s $246.1 million and someplace between the primary and second tax thresholds ($237 million and $247 million, respectively). That’s the sport’s sixth- or seventh-highest payroll, relying on which determine you’re utilizing to rank them, so it’s not as if the Blue Jays are going low cost.

Nor do they challenge to be unhealthy. Now we have them forecast for 83.5 wins, fourth within the AL East however a part of a decent group with the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles; solely 4.6 projected wins separates Toronto from New York, the projected first-place finisher. The factor is, the Blue Jays are proper on the level the place including additional wins might enhance their odds above their 14.2% likelihood at profitable the division title and 47.7% likelihood to make the playoffs. Whereas their AL East competitors has added marquee gamers like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the top results of the Blue Jays’ grand offseason simply looks like a collection of half measures.