Dane Dunning Can’t Keep Getting Away With This!

The Texas Rangers, as you may need heard, are in first place. And that doesn’t even inform the entire story; the Rangers are at the moment on a 106-win tempo, and imagine it or not, they’re underperforming their Pythagorean report by 4 video games. And so they’ve executed numerous it with out the very best pitcher on the earth.

Jacob deGrom, foremost among the many quite a few high-profile free agent arms Texas has invested in over latest years, has spent the previous month on the IL with elbow irritation. A sluggish restoration led the Rangers to maneuver the two-time Cy Younger winner to the 60-day IL on Monday. That precludes deGrom from returning to motion earlier than the top of June — which can or could not have been within the playing cards anyway.

However the Rangers have coped simply high-quality with out deGrom all through Might thanks in no small half to Dane Dunning, who began the yr as a reliever however has matched deGrom’s outcomes.

Even acknowledging that there is no such thing as a pitcher fairly like deGrom, Dunning couldn’t be extra totally different stylistically. None of Dunning’s pitches averages greater than 90.6 mph. His strikeout charge, 16.6%, ranks simply 104th out of 122 pitchers with a minimum of 40 innings pitched this season. However amongst that set, he has the second-lowest ERA; just one different pitcher, Dustin May, has an ERA under 3.00 and a Ok% underneath 20%.

Dunning, 28, made a minimum of 25 begins in every of the previous two seasons earlier than being displaced by deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney. He spent the primary month of the season in a multi-inning aid position, the place he was excellent in a small pattern — zero earned runs over his first six appearances, a span of 17 innings.

Shuttling backwards and forwards from the rotation to the bullpen is nothing new for Dunning, who was one thing of a forgotten man on probably the most loaded pitching staffs ever assembled. (Sure, I’m going to speak about his school profession, as a result of the 2016 Florida Gators are one among my favourite baseball groups ever.) In Dunning’s draft yr, Florida used 13 pitchers for multiple inning of labor. Each single one among them bought drafted, six of them — together with Dunning — within the prime 50 picks. Seven pitchers from that workforce have made the majors thus far. The Gators additionally had Jonathan India and Pete Alonso on the infield corners. Completely loaded workforce.

With Logan Shore, Alex Faedo, and A.J. Puk within the weekend rotation, Florida used Dunning (in addition to future first-rounders Jackson Kowar and Brady Singer) in a hybrid reliever/midweek starter position, and Dunning excelled. He completed third on the workforce in innings, and posted a 2.29 ERA and a 7.33 Ok/BB ratio. That bought him drafted within the first spherical by the Nationals, who a couple of months later despatched him to Chicago because the least necessary element of the Adam Eaton/Lucas Giolito commerce. 4 years after that, Dunning bought swapped for Lance Lynn, which is how he got here to be in Texas.

Invoking Puk and the Florida pitching growth juggernaut makes Dunning sound like an influence arm, however he’s not. And whereas his Location+ numbers and stroll charge are good, they’re nothing out of the extraordinary.

So how is that this man with a fastball velocity and strikeout charge out of the early Nineties maintaining with the very best pitcher of his technology?

A pair months again, I had numerous enjoyable writing a bit referred to as “What the Frig is Brent Honeywell Jr. Throwing?” through which I examined Honeywell’s changeup and screwball. For Dunning, the query is “What the Frig Isn’t Dane Dunning throwing?” Out of the 414 pitchers on Baseball Savant’s pitch arsenal leaderboard, 55 have registered six or extra pitch sorts this season. (Yu Darvish and Chris Bassitt lead the league with eight.) However a few of these are one-offs or potential coding errors. Dunning is one among simply 17 pitchers who’s thrown six or extra pitches a minimum of 4% of the time this season:

Yeah, I picked that 4% cutoff mark for a cause. What are you gonna do about it?

Right here’s one other strategy to put it. Dunning doesn’t use any of his pitches greater than 29.2% of the time. Out of these 414 pitchers, solely 20 use their commonest pitch much less steadily than Dunning. Dunning throws all six pitches to batters on each side of the plate, and this Nineties Wendy’s salad bar of choices has led to related outcomes. Setting apart the curveball, Dunning’s different 5 pitches have led to an opponent wOBA between .233 and .306 and a strikeout charge between 12.5% and 24.4%.

The curveball numbers are a bit wonky as a result of Dunning throws it solely early within the rely. Out of all of his pitches, it’s the one one which sits outdoors the 82 to 91 mph vary, and it has much more downward and glove-side break than his slider. You already know, it’s a curveball. He’s thrown it simply 34 occasions this yr, and 25 of these have been on the primary pitch of an at-bat. Having one thing bizarre to shock hitters with for strike one is a helpful talent, however the curveball is seldom the decisive pitch of the at-bat. Dunning has hit a batter with it, and produced 5 swings: three whiffs, a single, and a groundout.

There are 3 ways to take a look at the “How is Dane Dunning doing it?” query. There’s the approach strategy, the predictive strategy, and the descriptive strategy. And from a predictive standpoint, I think that Dunning won’t finish the season with an ERA of two.06. He’s bought some regarding underlying numbers, like a career-low .265 BABIP (down from .338 and .313 within the earlier two seasons), and a 69-point hole between his opponent wOBA and xwOBA. His xERA is 4.07, and so forth.

Nonetheless, he’s protecting the ball off opponent’s barrels and never permitting many walks. If he does regress, it needs to be to merely league-average ranges. And that leaves the descriptive query. Even when it doesn’t final, Dunning has one of many lowest ERAs within the league, and never simply due to his sizzling begin out of the bullpen. Dunning has an ERA of two.28 since returning to the rotation, and regardless of a .314 BABIP, opponents have an OPS of simply .588. And utilizing that 40-inning cutoff, Dunning has a top-10 FIP in baseball too, regardless of not putting anyone out.

So what’s up? What sort of magic is he utilizing?

4 statistics go into FIP: strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and residential runs. And Dunning, in 48 innings pitched this season, has not allowed a house run. The one different pitchers to throw greater than 30 innings and never permit a house run this yr are Yennier Cano and Brent Suter. (Give ‘em hell, Brent Suter!)

Dunning isn’t giving out free passes, and whereas he does quit numerous contact, the injury from mentioned contact has been restricted. Going again to that 40-inning cutoff, Dunning is twenty fourth in baseball in GB/FB ratio, and when he does quit balls within the air, they don’t are usually that harmful:

Baseball Savant has 34 fly balls within the database for Dunning this yr; the xBA on 21 of them was .075 or under. Dunning has given up 4 hits — a single and three doubles — on fly balls this yr. And this was one of many doubles:

Most offense comes from balls hit within the air, and since Dunning isn’t permitting any injury, his opponent ISO of .051 is the bottom in baseball. Good luck scoring off a man who doesn’t stroll anybody or permit extra-base hits.

The Rangers can be with out deGrom a minimum of one other three weeks, and given his historical past, Texas can most likely anticipate to be with out their ace for a very good chunk of the remaining video games. The longer Dunning can preserve his opponents scrambling for singles, the longer the Rangers will be capable of face up to deGrom’s absence.