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12:02 |
: |
12:02 |
: This ought to be good.
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12:02 |
: Nothing is nice in the mean time!
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12:02 |
: What’s the absolute best clarification for Gleyber Torres? It simply doesn’t make sense
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12:03 |
: If Gleyber Torres doesn’t make sense, you should acquit!
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12:03 |
: I assume the perfect doable clarification could be that he had a secret harm which magically healed this offseason
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12:03 |
: Faux you reside in a universe the place groups make loopy trades. The Dodgers and Angels swap Betts and Trout, together with the gamers’ long-term contracts. Who received the higher finish of the commerce?
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12:04 |
: Trout
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12:04 |
Us: First time? |
12:04 |
: Is it that I can’t discover something with the brand new format which actually I don’t love, however I don’t see an article about Jeter stepping down?
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12:05 |
: I don’t assume we had one? It’s doable that no one felt that they’d something particularly totally different to say about it that wasn’t already
|
12:05 |
: And it occurred at time so different stuff was taking place!
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12:05 |
: What do you assume the meals choice was throughout their 16-hour negotiation marathon? Do you assume they may have come to a deal if it was chilli as a substitute?
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12:05 |
: They need to do negotiations like scorching ones.
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12:05 |
: The wings get hotter and warmer till you make the deal.
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12:05 |
: And in the event you bow out, the opposite aspect will get their most up-to-date supply carried out in the event that they end *their* wing
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12:06 |
: Assist me really feel one thing that isn’t emotionally analogous to dropped french fries
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12:07 |
: I don’t!
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12:07 |
![]() |
12:07 |
: That’s the reference, BTW
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12:07 |
: I canceled my MLB.television subscription after the house owners scuttled Opening Day. I’m not saying it’s a giant deal; it simply dawned on me that I had higher issues to do than give cash to those house owners, particularly the workforce I need to see is blacked out half the time, anyway. What I’m wondering is whether or not lots of people really feel the identical method and if it makes any distinction.
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12:07 |
: It actually places me in a battle of curiosity, since my present profession is baseball associated!
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12:07 |
: Hey Dan, simply wished to request you and another Fangraphs guys and gals do some MLB The Present sim sport twitch streams throughout the lockout! Liked watching these in 2020.
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12:08 |
: We would! I’d then have to purchase the newest one. I hadn’t as a result of I’m nonetheless attempting to snag a PS5.
|
12:08 |
: Although that’s on maintain proper now.
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12:08 |
: Any sensible motive to be optimistic that the CBA is signed by April? I’m clinging to something I can at this level
|
12:08 |
: No.
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12:08 |
: The house owners seem like intransigent and TV cash strain isn’t a difficulty till you lose 25 video games or say
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12:08 |
: With a 12 workforce playoff, shouldn’t they return to only east and west divisions?
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12:08 |
: Sure
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12:09 |
: Does ZiPS use pitch information (motion, launch level, velo, extension, and so on) in its estimations for pitchers? I really feel like it might be helpful for smaller samples
|
12:09 |
: SOME issues. Lots of different stuff we’re nonetheless engaged on squeezing out what’s predictive and helpful
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12:09 |
: If the proof is powerful that enjoying in Coors hurts gamers, is there something that may very well be accomplished to the Coors atmosphere to mitigate this? Or is altitude altitude and nothing may be accomplished?
|
12:09 |
: I believe the humidor is as a lot as you are able to do with out different points popping up
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12:09 |
: Such as you begin altering the ball itself for top elevation, you begin to probably alter issues awkwardly
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12:10 |
: And whereas that proof is important, the impact isn’t *sturdy*
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12:10 |
: Zips going full scorched earth on Shewmake made me unhappy
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12:10 |
: I simply noticed your tweet a couple of wage cap and it’s one thing I’ve been pondering of for some time now. The CBT is already mainly a wage cap so does it make sense for the gamers to only embrace a cap at this level? A minimum of when you’ve a wage cap you even have a wage flooring and the cap is tied to complete income so it’s going to go up as income goes up. That’s the way it works within the NFL anyway, unsure about different leagues
|
12:10 |
: That’s form of my feeling.
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12:11 |
: If the gamers are already mainly beneath a wage cap proper now.
|
12:11 |
: Underneath a unique identify.
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12:11 |
: You then may as properly go for an *precise* wage cap that comes with the advantages.
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12:12 |
: Are the rsns and nationwide television offers going to offer Manfred an earful for the newest report on the house owners utilizing them as leverage or is that this simply par the course?
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12:12 |
: I don’t assume conversations change into uncomfortable till truly cash appears prefer it’s being misplaced.
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12:12 |
: Would placing a roof on Coors assist?
|
12:12 |
: Most likely not.
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12:13 |
: Somebody forgot to place locks and chains across the gloves earlier than they took that pic for the house web page featured article
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12:13 |
: They need to identify the highest 30 points to negotitate for the brand new CBA, then have the 30 house owners and 30 participant reps go face to face – subject by subject. Max Scherzer vs Steve Cohen on the CBT.
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12:14 |
: Concern #28 – Ought to Bobby Nutting be launched by trebuchet? Debating it’s Bobby Nutting vs. Andrew Miller
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12:15 |
: Have inventory costs gone up for Grasp & Yale locks due to the lockout and all of the pictures required?
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12:15 |
: What in the event you pressurized the Coors dome?
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12:16 |
: I dunno if it makes a park impact distinction
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12:16 |
: Wasn’t the Metrodome air pressured?
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12:16 |
: Hello. What do you assume ZiPS actually likes about Bryan Ramos to rank him at #20? Thanks.
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12:17 |
: Good plate self-discipline, excellent for his age on the degree, thinks he can play the infield
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12:17 |
: Why is Miguel Vargas prime 10 within the ZIPS prospects?
|
12:17 |
: ZiPS doesn’t see him as 1B-only proper now
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12:17 |
: Has there been any considered utilizing alternative gamers throughout the lockout?
|
12:17 |
: I’m certain there’s been a thought, however I don’t assume MLB’s going there but
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12:17 |
: They received slapped down fairly arduous final time in any case
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12:17 |
: and so they don’t need to be compelled to play beneath the outdated CBT once more
|
12:18 |
: err CBA
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12:18 |
: The CBT explicitly sunsetted on a date
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12:18 |
: So there’s cbe no CBT
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12:18 |
cholent.
: In the event you pressurized the Coors dome, may I prepare dinner my beans sooner? Not for chili, thoughts you, for |
12:18 |
: Simply how a lot strain are we speaking about right here?
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12:18 |
: I preserve listening to individuals say that in the event you get a Wage Cap – it comes with a Wage Flooring. Does it? If all the things is a part of the CBA, the ground is a negotiated merchandise as properly.
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12:18 |
: It’d, it may not. The income assure is the important thing
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12:19 |
Construct a pressurized dome. Set the strain to sea degree, and you’ll match the enjoying area dimension to no matter sea degree stadium you want. FTFY |
12:19 |
: I don’t understand how arduous that is to do
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12:19 |
: Or costly
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12:19 |
: That is utterly out of any space of experience I’ve!
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12:19 |
: If you’re new to baseball labor points, watch out in the event you google CBT.
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12:20 |
: is cognitive behavioral idea a scorching button subject?
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12:20 |
: I actually don’t know
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12:21 |
: Pressurized dome in Colorado? Prompt Pot area?
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12:21 |
: Is the lockout only a technique of the universe imploding to stop the Mets from having a rotation topped by DeGrom and Scherzer?
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12:21 |
: You do should really feel they’re attempting to lockout COhen too
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12:21 |
: The chatters don’t notice the a part of the appeal of Coors is the view of the mountains within the background. Put a dome and also you lose that.
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12:21 |
: Do you play motion RPGs in any respect? Just like the Elder Scrolls collection and 0 Daybreak?
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12:21 |
: I’ve performed a ton of elder scrolls
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12:21 |
: haevn’t performed zero daybreak
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12:21 |
: So sure
|
12:21 |
: however I do are likely to desire traditional JRPGs
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12:22 |
: I’m much more excited nowadays for brand new Falcom Trails releases than Ultimate Fantasy ones.
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12:22 |
: I seen that FG projections for my workforce went down after ZIPS was (have been?) included. Why do you hate my workforce a lot?
|
12:22 |
: TO make you unhappy.
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12:22 |
: Re: the wage cap. I can see the attraction of conceding that time and accepting a cap tied to league income… however because the house owners have demonstrated they do all the things in unhealthy religion, how may the gamers belief that the definition of “income” doesn’t get manipulated and twisted as soon as the ink is dry?
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12:22 |
: They’re doing it now, although.
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12:22 |
: A continuously twisted income assure might be nonetheless so much higher than an entire lack of 1.
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12:23 |
: Hello Dan, I had a query about participant growing older; I’ve seen the growing older curves and issues of that nature, however I used to be questioning about how do you see participant expertise usually age? or how does ZIPS see it? Like for instance, does a hitter’s contact begin to fade first? energy? eye? or do some expertise enhance with age, like maybe plate self-discipline? Thanks
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12:23 |
: ZiPS doesn’t have a “baked-in” algorithm on this sense.
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12:23 |
: ZiPS compares gamers, on the fly, to a really massive cohort of roughly related forms of gamers
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12:24 |
: There’s no a part of ZiPS that claims “OK, if X goes up A%, then Y goes down B%”
|
12:24 |
What share of MLB gamers are on a assured contract? |
12:24 |
: Most (however the minimal wage means that a large chunk of gamers aren’t)
|
12:25 |
: However right here’s the factor: there’s no rule that *requires* assured contracts to free brokers
|
12:25 |
: You possibly can *supply* Carlos Correa a 10-year deal that’s made up of 9 workforce choices.
|
12:25 |
: The house owners’ books: the MLBPA sees the house owners books proper? Or a minimum of some model of them? What does it say in regards to the integrity of the MLBPA that this information is rarely leaked.
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12:26 |
: They see *some* information. However they don’t get to do what, say, a forensic accountant would do
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12:26 |
: I’m Julio Urias’s projections and word that Zips has him with a considerably higher FIP than THE BAT – 3.44 to three.86. As you may count on then, Zips is projecting higher underlying metrics throughout the board (a minimum of the place comparisons can be found) resembling Ok/9, BB/9, HR/9. But, the projected WAR is the same 3.8 for each programs. Since FG WAR is FIP-based, how this the case? Zips is projecting 5 fewer IP, however it’s arduous to consider that would cancel out a 0.42 FIP benefit over ~170 IP.
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12:26 |
: is it within the playe rpage or from the rundown?
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12:27 |
: Hmm, couldnt’ let you know
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12:27 |
: However I additionally don’t know if THEBAT’s WAR is submitted or FG-calculated
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12:29 |
: What’s your favourite form of immature humor?
|
12:29 |
: Puns
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12:29 |
: If dropping 25 video games is the ache level that means that they should to signal the CBA by round authentic opening day. Are we that optimistic?
|
12:29 |
: No, I believe that’s most an optimistic situation, not the more than likely one.
|
12:29 |
: I dont’ assume I’m goign to die earlier than I’m 45, however that doesn’t imply my prediction is that I’m going to die at 45.
|
12:30 |
: A minimum of, I hope it isn’t; I flip 44 in June.
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12:30 |
: Why cease at a 12-team playoff? Can’t we embody the opposite 18 groups in a loser’s bracket to find out for as soon as and for all (properly, for 2022) whether or not Baltimore or Colorado is worse?
|
12:30 |
: If house owners have been keen to be inventive, you may even make a 30-team playoff that also most well-liked the traditional possibilities from workforce high quality
|
12:30 |
: however they’re not
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12:30 |
: as a result of it’ snot simply in regards to the playoff cash, it’s about making success extra random and thus, workforce high quality price much less
|
12:31 |
: Ought to the gamers simply preserve making extra calls for as extra video games are misplaced? For each sport missed, the minimal wage demand goes up 100k?
|
12:31 |
: It’s a must to watch out as a result of the authorized requirement to negotiated in good religion is a two method road
|
12:31 |
: In the event that they’re enjoying admittedly satisfying video games like this, it weakens their NLRB criticism and opens them as much as one
|
12:31 |
: As this drags on into most likely a minimum of Could, what probability is there the gamers handle to get missed video games rescheduled? This might seemingly push the top of playoffs again to impartial website just like the 2020 WS. Is there a shot of that occuring with explanded playoffs anyway
|
12:31 |
: THat’s going to be the powerful half.
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12:32 |
: And we’ve got loads of powerful elements!
|
12:32 |
: The variety of video games is a compulsory bargaining topic. Which implies that gamers should *agree* on the variety of video games to be performed or a minimum of the variety of video games they’re paid for.
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12:32 |
: RIght now, the MLBPA’s place is that there will probably be 162 video games performed and 162 video games they’re paid for and that isn’t MLB’s place
|
12:33 |
: And the extra video games misplaced, the extra this turns into an issue.
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12:34 |
: You may have a situation the place it’s July, they’ve an settlement on all the things that’s at the moment a difficulty, however there’s nonetheless no CBA as a result of they will’t agree on what number of video games and what number of video games the gamers are paid for
|
12:34 |
: Was there ever some extent that anybody would have guessed that Oliver Perez would retire as one of many oldest gamers within the sport?
|
12:34 |
: The day earlier than he retired!
|
12:34 |
: Extra on Urias’s projections: I believed Zips DC was Zips charges utilized to FG employees IP projections. And the FGDC was blended Zips/Steamer charges utilized to the identical employees IP projections. But, ZipsDC has 130 IP and FGDC has 159. Do I misunderstand?
|
12:35 |
: Wait, that’s not alleged to be.
|
12:37 |
: I’ve despatched a message to David aboutr that
|
12:37 |
: Are you able to run ZiPS backwards? What occurs in the event you plug Votto’s final season in, and undertaking backwards? What does his earlier profession seem like?
|
12:37 |
: I can however it takes a bit work
|
12:38 |
: I did that with Ted Williams
|
12:38 |
: Do you and the opposite projection gurus (steamer guys, Ariel Cohen, Derek Carty) have a gaggle chat?
|
12:38 |
: No. Or there could also be one and I’m simply not invted
|
12:38 |
: Are there sufficient information factors to see if the ZIPS Prime 100 has a better correlation of success than the BOARD Prime 100? In that case, I’d like to see the outcomes and FG inner dialogue [eats popcorn].
|
12:38 |
: ZiPS has accomplished very properly, however it’s additionally not in search of the very same factor
|
12:38 |
: Who’s your favourite minor league signing of the offseason to date?
|
12:39 |
: I’m kinda curious if Dan Straily’s HR enchancment in korea can persist again within the US
|
12:39 |
: What are we listening to in the present day?
|
12:39 |
: Not a lot, this week has brought on me to have a large everlasting headache.
|
12:39 |
: I did take heed to the three/1 episode of the On a regular basis Driver podcast.
|
12:40 |
: With the Orioles transferring left-field again to Harford Street, what kind of changes do you assume groups might want to make? Will MLB enable leftfielders to play on Segways?
|
12:40 |
: I don’t assume it’ shtat massive a deal.
|
12:40 |
: I believe most if not all individuals on this chat are pro-player (myself included). Are you able to try and steel-man and provides the most effective sensible pro-owner argument?
|
12:40 |
: OK, although please word that I don’t consider this in any respect.
|
12:44 |
: “From a basic standpoint, it’s true that baseball’s revenues are rising a lot sooner than salaries. Nonetheless, the premise for that income development is in areas resembling web and worldwide income, that are primarily being generated due to our funding in there, the danger of which all of us assumed, not the gamers , who merely performed the identical baseball they all the time have. No participant had any pores and skin in our funding in MLBAM, so why would they be robotically entitled to these good points? We gave the gamers a chance to get a wage cap with a income assure in 1994 and so they went on strike after which sued us. Their slowdown in income is because of their intransigence in regards to the partnership we supplied them, leaving us to take the danger.”
|
12:44 |
: Now, please word that this isn’t my argument.
|
12:44 |
: However you ASKED me to play satan’s advocate right here, one thing I do get pleasure from doing.
|
12:46 |
: Once I was a highschool senior, social research was one of many solely few lessons I didn’t nope the hell out of that 12 months (the others have been prob/stat and wind ensemble/orchestra). Towson was turning into a regulation and public coverage magnet on the time and the GT course on the time was mainly arguing SCOTUS instances for the entire 12 months. I all the time tried to take the disagreeable aspect!
|
12:46 |
: Hello Dan! What, if any, influence do you assume a sustained lockout would have on the event of prospects who’re on the 40 man, however would most likely begin the season in AAA. Do you assume generationally there’s one thing going to be tousled with how gamers develop because of the lack of consistency over the previous 3 seasons?
|
12:46 |
: I believe for guys like MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto, a 12 months may have important penalties
|
12:47 |
: (I may most likely put collectively a greater pro-owner argument in time, however I solely had like 45 seconds to consider and begin typing)
|
12:47 |
: Do you want Dan Straily or Aaron Brooks extra for 2022?
|
12:47 |
: Straily. It’s not like Brooks as a result of a Ok machine in KBO
|
12:48 |
: From the angle of MLB catching professional criticism for not selling the gamers, how crucial was it to take away participant likenesses from workforce web sites?
|
12:48 |
: Truly fairly so.
|
12:48 |
: There are authorized causes for that.
|
12:48 |
: Within the 60s and 70s, the media and the followers have been very pro-owner. This appears to have modified. Invoice James has theorized that it is because we are able to truly assign values to gamers now in a method we couldn’t years in the past, so it’s simpler to see which gamers are getting ripped off. Does this appear proper to you?
|
12:48 |
: I believe that’s an inexpensive speculation
|
12:48 |
: What number of house owners do you assume would have accepted the gamers newest supply? Are the house owners largely united? Are they break up evenly? Or is there a gaggle of ten or fewer holdouts?
|
12:48 |
: I believe they’re *largely* united however I get the sense that there’s 10 or so who’re VERY immune to transferring on something
|
12:49 |
: What’s Zips DC?
|
12:49 |
: ZiPS pro-rated to depth chart
|
12:49 |
: RE backwards ZiPS – That might be nice to do for a man like Gurriel to see what may need been.
|
12:49 |
: Don’t make me faucet the signal!
|
12:50 |
: How a lot do you assume attendance will probably be down (vs 2019 final common 12 months) as soon as video games restart?
|
12:50 |
: 20%
|
12:50 |
: However it additionally might come right down to how ugly this continues and the way fast this resolves.
|
12:50 |
: In the event that they got here to a fast deal this weekend (ha!) it may not have any impact
|
12:50 |
: however this prediction is predicated on them not coming to a fast deal this weekend
|
12:50 |
: Sizzling take: that is the participant’s fault, however they’ve accomplished a greater job creating the narrative
|
12:50 |
: Don’t take a look at me!
|
12:50 |
: When MLB finally goes to 32 groups, do you like the 4 division per league alignment?
|
12:50 |
: NFW
|
12:51 |
: Does a sustained lockout have an effect on the timeline for when prospects change into Rule 5 eligible?
|
12:51 |
: It shouldn’t
|
12:51 |
: HOWEVER
|
12:51 |
: if the entire season is gone, that kinda makes issues difficult with 40 man rosters
|
12:52 |
: And if there’s no baseball for your entire 12 months, properly, it will not be my drawback to fret about anymore
|
12:52 |
: I’m neither pro-player nor pro-owner – I’m pro-baseball. Typically I agree that the house owners are enjoying hardball (heh) greater than wanted, however the gamers have a bit little bit of cognitive dissonance occurring with one subject. They’re adamant that the system must be arrange so that every one groups are incentivized to be extra aggressive, however then they need the “wage cap” elevated in order that massive free brokers have extra upside however then just a few groups can spend that a lot.
|
12:52 |
: However there are some issues right here
|
12:52 |
: You don’t just like the CBT being raised
|
12:52 |
: Nice.
|
12:53 |
: NOW. The place’s the participant share from income development going to come back from?
|
12:53 |
: The gamers are hte ones that proposed a unique income sharing system that incentivized successful and investing in workforce
|
12:53 |
: the OWNERS stated no.
|
12:54 |
: Principally, it’s a faux aggressive stability scheme. Why ought to the gamers be shut out of baseball’s income development ceaselessly as a result of Bitty Bobby Nutting didn’t get as a lot in his belief fund as he’d like?
|
12:54 |
: Ha, I believed you had accomplished that, however then your reply made it sound such as you havent accomplished ZiPS backwards, lol
|
12:54 |
: It is sensible to translate efficiency that occurred
|
12:54 |
: I do backwards for Ted Williams
|
12:55 |
: What occurs first: a participant breaks rank and says they need to take the most effective deal doable and go play; or a rich proprietor breaks rank and calls out a budget house owners?
|
12:55 |
: I believe a participant just because it’s arduous to be as disciplined with 1200 individuals
|
12:55 |
: Re: Rule 5 draft: Rule 5 itself says its the variety of Rule 5 drafts after the participant indicators (with a minor exception if a participant indicators proper earlier than it). So the lockout usually mustn’t have an effect on it until there isn’t any Rule 5 draft this 12 months.
|
12:55 |
: However I believe the difficulty is that it’s a must to *shield* gamers from Rule 5 drafts.
|
12:55 |
: And also you do it by placing them on the 40-man roster
|
12:55 |
: which makes them union members
|
12:56 |
: “The place’s the participant share from income development going to come back from?” Larger minimal wage, greater bonus pool, free company sooner… I by no means stated the house owners would go for it.
|
12:56 |
: However free company sooner doesn’t enhance the sum of money there’s on the market
|
12:56 |
: Nor does a much bigger bonus pool.
|
12:56 |
: They’d run into the identical caps
|
12:56 |
: If Steve Cohen isn’t going over a punitive cap to signal six 12 months guys, he’s not going to for 4 12 months guys
|
12:57 |
: When a participant doesn’t have a ZiPs line in his profile, however has a ZiPS DC with a line of .211/.281/.343, what does that characterize?
|
12:57 |
: I don’t understand how that may be
|
12:57 |
: Until there’s a database subject
|
12:57 |
: It might assist in the event you instructed me the participant! I don’t have all their strains memorize
|
12:57 |
: d
|
12:57 |
: With 32 groups ought to MLB return to 2 divisions per league?
|
12:57 |
: Sure
|
12:58 |
: Muncy’s return for the beginning of the season is unsure, JT retains declining defensively, Eddie Rios is coming off an harm and will not be excellent, and Beaty has by no means been excellent regardless. Do the Dodgers have a “gap” at nook infield?
|
12:58 |
: I wouldn’t name it a gap but
|
12:58 |
: however it’s a mushy spot.
|
12:58 |
: The rationale I requested the Votto ZiPS query is I’d discover it attention-grabbing what his profession may need seemed like had he used his new “swinging for the fences at the price of self-discipline” strategy his complete profession.
|
12:58 |
: That’s a bit trickier
|
12:58 |
: I’ll ponder it
|
12:58 |
: You ever play the FF6 Courageous New World mod? Reblances all of the tools and character talents, limits every character to a couple espers. I actually favored it.
|
12:58 |
: I’ve not.
|
12:58 |
: Now wouldn’t be a good time as I’m enjoying by means of the pixel remaster proper now
|
1:00 |
: When are you having children!?!
|
1:02 |
: I do know that’s not you mother
|
1:02 |
: Mother’s gotten off me since my sister has children
|
1:02 |
: and since mother thinks her two 12 months outdated is similar to me, she’s already exhausted sufficient babysitting
|
1:03 |
: For those who haven’t performed FFVI
|
1:03 |
: This dialogue ended much like the CBA dialogue Monday-Tuesday
|
1:03 |
|
1:04 |
: How is the pixel remaster? I’m hesitant to pay AGAIN for a sport I’ve paid for like 4 instances already.
|
1:04 |
: Terrific. Price it only for the modernized rating
|
1:04 |
: The opera is VOICED
|
1:04 |
: (Now, I’ve already heard the concertized model, however it’s nice to have it in sport)
|
1:04 |
: Few examples for the .211/.281/.343 line: Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Smoak, Aaron Altherr. All guys who have been out of MLB in some type or one other final 12 months, however listed in FA within the DC. Clearly some form of a placeholder, and I get why they wouldn’t have a projection run, however noticed that quantity popping up a number of instances!
|
1:05 |
: Favorite ff6 PC? Mine is sabin. BUM RUSH SON!
|
1:05 |
: I like Edgar.
|
1:06 |
: As a result of the instruments are hilarious
|
1:06 |
: When are you going to get your junk out of our home?
|
1:06 |
: She woudln’t say our! My dad died in 1997
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1:07 |
: On that word, it’s time for me to move out for an additional week.
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1:07 |
: Thanks for coming everybody!
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1:07 |
: Hope to see you all subsequent week.
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Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on a lot of radio exhibits and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
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