Cody Bellinger Is in a Much Better Place

The Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal in December, hoping that the mix of improved well being and a change of surroundings might assist the slugger rebound from a pair of dismal seasons within the wake of accidents to each his left leg and proper shoulder. Although the 27-year-old heart fielder began the season slowly, he’s since heated up and simply accomplished his most efficient calendar month since his MVP-winning 2019 season. He might not all the best way again to his award-winning type, however he’s in a a lot better place that he was in his remaining years with the Dodgers.

Although he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in Wednesday’s 2–1 loss to the Nationals, Bellinger is hitting .291/.364/.573 with seven homers and a 149 wRC+. He completed April with a 158 wRC+, his highest for any month up to now 5 seasons:

You’ll be aware the token illustration of months from the 2020–22 seasons there (to be honest there have been solely two from 2020 as a result of pandemic); I went to 11 on the listing above simply to incorporate the final of these, as they’re the one ones during which Bellinger even hit at a league common clip. On the flipside, throughout the similar span he had 5 months with at the very least 59 PA and a 72 wRC+ or worse, and three starting from 83–94 by way of wRC+. At his worst, he hit an unfathomable .118/.186/.215 for an 11 wRC+ in 102 PA in July 2021.

Bellinger was a Dodger for all of these months besides the just-completed one. His 10-year run within the group, from the time he was drafted within the fourth spherical in 2013 out of an Arizona highschool to the purpose when he was non-tendered final November, included some unimaginable excessive factors: the 39-homer season for which he gained NL Rookie of the 12 months honors in 2017, the 47-homer season for which he took dwelling the NL MVP award two years later, and a few excellent protection and well timed hitting throughout the ’20 postseason, capped by a World Sequence ring.

A kind of well timed hits precipitated Bellinger’s historic plummet. Celebrating what proved to be the decisive dwelling run in Recreation 7 of the 2020 NLCS in opposition to the Braves, the exuberant Bellinger dislocated his proper (non-throwing) shoulder after bashing forearms with teammate Enrique Hernández. Although he performed by the World Sequence, he underwent arthroscopic labrum surgical procedure in November, began slowly in spring coaching, after which within the fourth recreation of the season suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula, knocking him out for eight weeks. Unable to seek out his rhythm as he recovered from each shoulder and leg points, he hit a grim .165/.240/.302 (48 wRC+) in 350 plate appearances, although throughout the postseason he confirmed indicators of life by briefly adopting a shortened swing with decrease hand placement, hitting .353/.436/.471 and placing collectively some tenacious plate appearances. However whereas he obtained off to a stable begin final yr, his season shortly went downhill just after some lunkheaded scribe recommended he is likely to be recovering his type. Distinctive protection heart area stored him within the lineup, however whereas endlessly tinkering together with his swing, he hit simply .210/.265/.389 (83 wRC+) with 1.5 WAR.

Updating the numbers from a piece Dan Szymborski wrote in late August, Bellinger skilled the steepest decline of any participant who had produced a 150 wRC+ in at the very least 400 PA throughout a season during which they have been 25 or youthful. He fell from a 161 wRC+ in 2019, his age-22 season, to a 78 wRC+ from 2020 to ’22; that 83-point hole is eighteen factors bigger than second-ranked Bryce Harper’s fall from 197 in 2015 to 132 from ’16 to ’18, although Harper was nonetheless a harmful hitter. Actually, Bellinger was the one participant from among the many 130 in Dan’s knowledge set who even fell under a 100 wRC+ over the following three-season span.

Thanks largely to a record-setting first-year wage in arbitration ($11.5 million for 2020), Bellinger’s paycheck shortly outstripped his manufacturing. He made $16.1 million in 2021, when he completed with -1.0 WAR, however dodged the non-tender and obtained a $17 million wage final yr. However with the Dodgers planning a winter of cost-cutting — they’d let Justin Turner, Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney stroll with no battle — Bellinger was the primary to depart.

Regardless of his precipitous decline, Bellinger didn’t lack for suitors as soon as he grew to become accessible, with the Blue Jays, Giants, Rockies, and Yankees amongst these reportedly expressing curiosity, and with agent Scott Boras telling The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that he had obtained a number of multi-year affords. Desirous to capitalize on a possible bounceback, Bellinger selected a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cubs. He’s making $12.5 million this yr, with a $5 million buyout on a $25 million mutual possibility for subsequent yr.

Bellinger went hitless in his first 12 plate appearances as a Cub earlier than clubbing a three-run homer off the Reds’ Connor Overton on April 3. However even with a three-hit recreation the following day, he began simply 5-for-30 with out one other extra-base hit and introduced only a 90 wRC+ with him for his return to Dodger Stadium on April 14. He went 3-for-11 with a double and a homer in that three-game collection, teaming up with Patrick Wisdom to go back-to-back off Julio Urías in a sequence that determined the rubber match. He hit two extra in opposition to the Dodgers in Chicago (together with one other off Urías) lower than per week later and, after getting back from a three-day paternity go away final week (he was one in every of five players on the 2022 Dodgers who apparently stored busy throughout final yr’s All-Star break), homered in back-to-back video games in opposition to the Marlins.

One motive Bellinger signed with the Cubs was his familiarity with hitting coaches Dustin Kelly and Johnny Washington, with whom he labored whereas within the Dodgers’ system. The pair’s familiarity together with his seeming countless search to remake his swing — an effort that goes again at least to 2019, as he labored to chop his strikeout price — helped. Via The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney:

“A whole lot of it with Cody was simply understanding and letting him speak about and clarify what he’s felt over the previous couple of years,” Kelly mentioned. “We knew that he’d gone by a pair totally different swing adjustments and tried a variety of various things. You don’t actually know what that’s till you really discuss to him and get within the cage and work out among the drills he’s carried out, among the strikes and feels. We didn’t wish to backtrack and check out a bunch of various issues he’d already tried a couple of times earlier than.”

…The Cubs recognized smaller issues with Bellinger’s decrease half, making an attempt to get him extra into his again hip and adjusting the place he locations his palms with out overloading him with options.

…“The core values of what we recognized as being athletic, creating a bit of bit extra of a hip hinge and setting a extremely good hand placement, has remained the identical,” Kelly mentioned.

In early March, CBS Sports activities’ Danny Vietti put collectively a side-by-side video exhibiting 4 years value of Bellinger stances and swings:

Cody Bellinger pic.twitter.com/yjRkm2xhGJ

— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) March 1, 2023

Bellinger’s ft look like nearer collectively than final yr, his palms nonetheless elevated however his bat much less wrapped. To my eye primarily based on having seen a complete lot of his struggles, he’s doing a greater job of staying again on the ball, however past that, I’ll go away the detailed visible evaluation to colleague Esteban Rivera if he chooses to take a swing, and as an alternative dive into the numbers. Earlier than that, although, let’s get pleasure from just a few Stomach Bombs.

One factor The Athletic article talked about is Bellinger’s success in dealing with excessive fastballs due to his changes. Right here’s his efficiency in opposition to four-seamers within the higher third of the strike zone.

He’s nonetheless swinging and lacking on the excessive warmth a good quantity, however already Bellinger has almost as many hits within the higher third as all of final season, and he’s making higher contact. In the meantime, on the subject of four-seamers above the strike zone, his 20.9% swinging-strike price is a lifeless ringer for his 2019 price, the place he’s been at 30% or greater in every of the previous three seasons.

General, Bellinger’s 29.7% chase price is down 6.8 factors from final yr and 4.1 factors from the 2020–22 interval. His 9.1% swinging-strike price is the bottom of his profession, 0.4 factors decrease than in 2019, and down from 12.2% from 2020–22. Significantly of be aware on condition that strikeout price begins to stabilize at 60 PA, he’s minimize his strikeout price from final yr’s 27.3% to 17.8%; the 9.5-point drop is the majors’ third-largest amongst gamers with at the very least 400 PA final yr and 90 this yr, trailing solely Victor Robles (-12.9%) and Jorge Mateo (-11.1%).

As for what occurs when he does make contact, Bellinger’s batted ball stats are literally a blended bag:

Bellinger is hitting the ball within the air extra typically, pulling the ball extra typically, and barreling the ball extra regularly, however his common exit velo and hard-hit price are down relative to final yr, and effectively under common. The place his barrel price ranks within the sixty fourth percentile, the exit velo is within the thirty sixth and the hard-hit price within the twenty seventh.

That mentioned, Bellinger is pulling the ball within the air extra regularly and getting an amazing quantity of additional stick with it these balls relative to current years. A few of that will owe to the ever-changing baseball, however on the similar time, he hasn’t even reached the warm-weather months this season:

Pushed by these fly balls, Bellinger’s Statcast anticipated numbers are a lot better than final yr, although they do lag behind his precise numbers:

Bellinger’s 103-point hole between his SLG and xSLG is the 12th-largest of the 271 Statcast qualifiers, and his wOBA-xwOBA hole is twenty second among the many similar group. His xwOBA and xwOBA on contact are each effectively forward of 2021–22 however nonetheless behind even ’20, to say nothing of ’19.

In following Bellinger’s ups and downs, I’ve been burned earlier than. After I checked in on him in late April of final yr and famous constructive indicators of a rebound, he had produced simply 41 batted balls, and his early success proved fleeting. He’s obtained simply over double the variety of batted balls now (84) and 50 extra plate appearances (118 to 68) — sufficient in order that his exit velo, barrel price, hard-hit price, strikeout price and extra have handed the purpose the place the numbers begin to stabilize. I’d love to have the ability to report that he’s recovered his MVP-winning type, as a result of the mix of that energy and athleticism made him one of many recreation’s most entertaining gamers. The info makes clear that he’s not again to that extent, nonetheless, and it’s fairly attainable that he by no means will probably be. Even so, it’s additionally clear that he’s on a a lot better path than in his remaining years with the Dodgers, and for now, that’s sufficient to be enthusiastic about.