One other strong pitcher has come off the free agent list on Thursday night, as Clayton Kershaw is apparently close to a return to the Dodgers on a one-year contract. No monetary phrases have but been revealed, however I might anticipate that the bottom-line determine is much like the $17 million he made final yr, or only a few million {dollars} extra. The crew didn’t prolong him a qualifying provide, however which will mirror much less on what the greenback determine is and extra on the truth that he’s Los Angeles’ longest-tenured participant and an important a part of the franchise’s historical past. Bouncing again from an elbow harm that ended his 2021 earlier than the playoffs, Kershaw returned to his normal late-career type, with a 2.28 ERA and a couple of.57 FIP over 22 begins, ok for 3.8 WAR and to make him the beginning pitcher for the Nationwide League within the All-Star Sport.
Kershaw has attained the service time and respect with the group that he’s now a type of gamers who, so long as he desires to maintain returning, can probably obtain infinite contracts, a standing much like that earned by gamers comparable to Adam Wainwright and David Ortiz lately. Whereas he prevented a recurrence of the dreaded flexor tendon soreness from 2021, his ongoing again issues restricted him to 126 1/3 innings, an expectation that appears more likely to repeat going ahead. Since main the league with 232 2/3 innings in 2015, he has solely been wholesome sufficient to qualify for the ERA title twice within the final seven seasons. The larger query wasn’t whether or not Kershaw can be again in Dodger blue however whether or not he can be again in any respect; the overall consensus has been that he would both return to the Dodgers, go to his hometown Rangers, or retire.
2023 ZiPS Projection – Clayton Kershaw
| 12 months | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 10 | 5 | 3.41 | 22 | 22 | 121.3 | 107 | 46 | 17 | 25 | 129 | 122 | 2.3 |
2023 ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Clayton Kershaw
| Percentile | ERA+ | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 197 | 2.11 | 4.1 |
| 90% | 167 | 2.49 | 3.5 |
| 80% | 147 | 2.82 | 3.1 |
| 70% | 138 | 3.01 | 2.8 |
| 60% | 129 | 3.22 | 2.6 |
| 50% | 122 | 3.41 | 2.3 |
| 40% | 111 | 3.73 | 2.0 |
| 30% | 105 | 3.96 | 1.7 |
| 20% | 97 | 4.30 | 1.4 |
| 10% | 89 | 4.68 | 1.0 |
| 5% | 81 | 5.13 | 0.6 |
ZiPS suggests a one-year, $17.6 million contract or a two-year, $31.8 million deal, so the projection is probably going in the identical zip code, if not the identical neighborhood.
If he wasn’t earlier than, Kershaw is formally within the “artful veteran lefty with moxie” portion of his profession. Although he was by no means actually a flamethrower at his peak, he’s misplaced about 4 mph off his greatest velocities, and in consequence, the four-seamer is extra of a change-of-pace pitch than something at this level. There have been 225 pitchers in 2022 who had a four-seamer as the ultimate pitch in at the very least 100 plate appearances, and Kershaw had the second-lowest swing-and-miss proportion at 9.9%, higher than solely Spenser Watkins. That’s price nearly half many of the remainder of his profession. His slider is barely a pair ticks slower than his fastball, and he’s primarily develop into a curve-and-slider pitcher lately.
There’s little doubt that the yearly retirement rumors are at the very least partially pushed by the truth that Kershaw has probably hit most, if not all, of his potential profession milestones. He has his three Cy Younger awards and an MVP trophy and received his World Collection ring in 2020. He’ll probably acquire win no. 200 someday early in 2023 and strike out his 3,000th batter ought to he return in 2024, if the latter even issues to him in any respect. He was his era’s likeliest challenger for the 300-win threshold, with ZiPS typically projecting him to complete with 260–290 wins all through most of his prime. However that tempo has slowed down significantly; he’s solely received 99 video games in eight years, regardless of wonderful pitching, and I can’t see him hanging round anyplace close to so long as can be required for an additional 100.
If he chooses to play out the complete remainder of his profession, ZiPS now tasks Kershaw to complete at 240–123 with 3,411 strikeouts in 3,200 innings, good for 79.8 WAR. Since ZiPS now natively tasks JAWS, this profession line would give him 63.8 JAWS, sufficient to maneuver him as much as twenty first in main league historical past. Fact be instructed, he ought to make the Corridor now, with 73.4 WAR and rating twenty fourth in JAWS, and if he struggles to make the 75% threshold shortly, I’m positively going to throw an unlucky mood tantrum or two on Twitter (or its successor) in six or seven years. Clearly, he’ll be a checkmark on my poll.
Bringing again Kershaw for an additional season is greater than an train in nostalgia for the Dodgers, as his return solidifies a rotation with a number of questions. If you happen to verify the Roster Resource page for the Dodgers, Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove venture because the fourth and fifth starter based mostly simply on who’s at present signed to a contract. There was little probability of that really coming to move, and with Julio Urías a free agent after subsequent season and Walker Buehler out for 2023 with Tommy John surgical procedure, penciling in Kershaw for 25 strong begins is extremely helpful. Even the Dodgers don’t deal with their payroll as limitless, they usually can now extra comfortably commit extra long-term {dollars} elsewhere this offseason, whether or not it’s to increase Urías or go after one of many prizes in a comparatively skinny marketplace for beginning pitchers.
The Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw are higher collectively, so it’s good to see him again for at the very least yet one more yr in LA. The Dodgers have much more to do that offseason, nevertheless it’s good that changing their most vital beginning pitcher since Sandy Koufax has been crossed off the to-do checklist.
