Can the Rays cut payroll without moving Tyler Glasnow?

Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow’s title has been floated frequently within the rumor mill this offseason, and it’s not onerous to see why. Tampa Bay’s highest Opening Day payroll in franchise historical past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, was a determine slightly below $84M in 2022. In the meantime, RosterResource tasks the Rays for a considerable enhance over that determine, with a $126M projection for the membership’s 2024 Opening Day roster as issues stand. That disparity of greater than $40M has led to a widespread perception across the league that the membership must slash payroll this offseason, and Glasnow’s $25M wage in 2024 is way and away the biggest wage on Tampa’s books for 2024.

That stated, the Rays are going through an excessive amount of query marks relating to their beginning rotation as a consequence of important accidents to lefties Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs in addition to right-hander Drew Rasmussen final season. Every of the three required season-ending surgical procedure in 2023 and figures to overlook a lot, if not all, of the 2024 marketing campaign as nicely. That leaves the Rays with simply three sure-fire beginning pitchers coming into the 2024 season as issues stand: Glasnow, Aaron Civale, and Zach Eflin.

The membership may get extra assist subsequent yr from kids Taj Bradley and Shane Baz (the latter of whom is coming off a misplaced season as a consequence of Tommy John surgical procedure in 2023) in addition to righty Zack Littell, who pitched solidly as a swingman for the Rays in 2023, however the membership’s many pitching accidents this previous season function a reminder of the significance of sustaining beginning pitching depth. Buying and selling Glasnow would symbolize a serious blow to that depth, significantly after he completed second to solely Eflin in innings on the Rays final yr regardless of not making his season debut till the tip of Could.

It’s price noting the likelihood the Rays’ scenario isn’t as dire as it could appear. In spite of everything, president of baseball operations Erik Neander has indicated that the membership can be open to operating a better payroll in 2024 than they’ve in earlier years so as to preserve extra of the membership’s 99-win 2023 roster collectively. Specifics on precisely how excessive of a payroll membership possession is keen to abdomen aren’t clear, however reducing projected payroll to $100M would place them twenty second amongst main league golf equipment in projected payroll for 2024, simply behind the Brewers ($101M) and simply forward of their southern neighbors in Miami ($96M). Whereas the membership has sometimes run a bottom-five payroll amongst MLB golf equipment lately, precedent for the Rays rating increased does exist, as Cot’s signifies their 2010 payroll was twenty second within the majors as nicely.

Given the membership’s pitching and monetary conditions, it’s honest to not solely ask if the Rays can afford to maintain Glasnow in 2024, but additionally if they will afford to half with him. Whereas there are not any easy solutions to the second query, it’s price wanting into the primary: if the Rays are keen to run a payroll of $100M in 2024, is there a path to retaining Glasnow as a member of the Opening Day roster?

Glasnow isn’t the one Rays participant who’s seen his title seem within the rumor mill this offseason; outfielder Manuel Margot’s title has percolated virtually as steadily because the hulking right-hander’s, with the Mets and Yankees amongst his identified suitors. Shifting on from Margot, who has posted roughly league-average numbers (97 wRC+) on the plate over the previous 4 seasons alongside stellar protection within the outfield, would seemingly be a should if the Rays are to trim their present payroll to $100M whereas retaining Glasnow. Margot’s $10M wage in 2024 is third-highest on the staff, behind solely Glasnow and Eflin. Buying and selling two years of Eflin, who’s beneath contract for a mixed $29M over the following two seasons, so as to retain one yr of Glasnow would make little sense for the Rays past an exorbitant commerce return for Eflin’s providers.

Margot isn’t the one outfielder who’s seen his title floated steadily as a possible Rays commerce chip this offseason. Righty slugger Harold Ramirez has additionally seen his title floated as a possible trade candidate due to the similarity of his function to that of fellow slugger Luke Raley. Whereas Ramirez’s projected $4.4M wage in 2024 (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) is an inexpensive value to pay for his providers, Raley’s presence is a .249/.333/.490 hitter who crushed 19 homers in simply 406 journeys to the plate final season fills an analogous area of interest to Ramirez on the membership’s roster at a pre-arbitration fee. That makes Ramirez considerably expendable for the Rays regardless of a strong .306/.348/.432 slash line over his two seasons with Tampa.

If the Rays half methods with each Margot and Ramirez this offseason, that may trim slightly below $15M from the membership’s payroll with out doing an excessive amount of injury to the membership’s outfield depth, which might nonetheless embrace Raley along with Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, and Greg Jones. That also leaves the membership with greater than $11M in payroll that may have to be trimmed to get the membership’s payroll right down to $100M, nonetheless. Whereas dealing a veteran aid arm like Jason Adam or Andrew Kittredge may save the membership $2-3M whereas opening up a roster spot for a teen like Manuel Rodriguez or Colby White, the membership’s bullpen depth would undergo for it and the Rays would nonetheless must half methods with a extra important piece.

The 2 almost definitely candidates to depart in such a deal can be outfielder Randy Arozarena and second baseman Brandon Lowe, however parting with both participant opens up important query marks throughout the membership’s positional group. Arozarena has turn into a face of the franchise lately due to his regular manufacturing and postseason heroics. In 2023, the 28-year-old delivered a 20/20 season whereas posting a 127 wRC+ because the membership’s common left fielder, a manufacturing that may be troublesome to exchange with out including much more in payroll than Arozarena’s projected $9M wage. That being stated, there’s no less than an argument to hearken to gives on Arozarena’s providers given the membership’s finances crunch and the truth that he figures to solely get dearer in future journeys by way of arbitration as he enters his thirties.

Lowe, however, might be simpler for the membership to exchange. The 29-year-old had one thing of a bounceback season on the plate in 2023, slashing .231/.328/.443 with a 117 wRC+ in 109 video games this previous yr after posting roughly league-average numbers on the dish in 2022. Like Arozarena, Lowe figures to solely get dearer within the coming years because the Rays maintain a pair of membership choices on his providers for 2025 and 2026, valued at $10.5M and $11.5M respectively. With loads of younger infielders like Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead, and Jonathan Aranda approaching the massive leagues, Lowe’s manufacturing might be simpler for the membership to exchange internally than Arozarena’s, as nicely.

That being stated, a Lowe commerce comes with its personal pitfalls. Lowe flashed the offensive manufacturing of an affect participant from 2020-21 when he slashed .253/.346/.532 (140 wRC+) with 53 house runs in simply 205 video games. Whereas he’s now two years faraway from that offensive outburst, it’s price noting that Lowe has been slowed by again points over the previous two seasons. A wholesome 2024 marketing campaign may see Lowe return to the All-Star caliber manufacturing from earlier in his profession and considerably enhance his worth, each to the Rays and on the commerce market. A Lowe commerce would additionally exacerbate the uncertainty Tampa’s infield is going through as a result of off-the-field problems with franchise shortstop Wander Franco and the offseason surgery of slick-fielding backup Taylor Walls, although it’s no less than doable one or each gamers might be again in time for Opening Day.

For the Rays to make appreciable cuts to their 2024 payroll whereas additionally retaining Glasnow, the membership would seemingly must half methods with no less than 4 gamers in Margot, Ramirez, Adam or Kittredge, and considered one of Arozarena or Lowe. Whereas delivery out Margot, Ramirez, and a aid arm would all be completely defensible actions that subtract from areas of considerable depth for the membership, dealing Arozarena or Lowe would entail giving up a slugger with a number of years of staff management within the midst of his prime years who the membership may battle to exchange the manufacturing of. That’s a steep value to pay so as to retain the providers of Glasnow for the 2024 season, significantly when he figures to depart in free company subsequent winter both manner.

After all, there are many elements this train doesn’t keep in mind as nicely. Chief amongst them is the potential commerce returns the Rays may garner, not just for Glasnow but additionally for a longer-term piece like Lowe or Arozarena. If the Rays discover themselves greatly surprised by a suggestion for any of the items talked about right here, the choices at their disposal may actually change. It’s additionally honest to notice that the Rays may no less than plausibly be keen to hold a payroll that exceeds even the $100M determine used on this train; in any case, the membership made an offer to celebrity first baseman Freddie Freeman in the course of the 2021-22 offseason and had interest in dealing for two-way celebrity Shohei Ohtani, each of whom would have seemingly required monetary commitments north of Glasnow’s $25M wage. Since then, the Rays have additionally hammered out an agreement on a brand new stadium in St. Petersburg, probably additional incentivizing the membership to loosen the purse strings.