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Denver Nuggets celebrity Nikola Jokic will enter subsequent season because the reigning two-time MVP and has an opportunity to do one thing solely three gamers have ever executed. Invoice Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Chook are at the moment the one gamers to ever win three straight MVPs, and successful one other would put Jokic in elite firm.
It’s actually potential, however historical past isn’t on his facet. Then once more, Jokic is rewriting the report books by placing up unprecedented numbers, making it onerous to match him to former MVPs. Due to this fact, let’s take a better take a look at Jokic and see whether or not he has an opportunity to win a 3rd straight MVP.
The Denver Nuggets will probably be higher, and that would profit Jokic.
The Denver Nuggets completed final season with only a 48-34 report regardless of having the MVP, however that was because of the absence of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Murray, and Porter Jr. mixed to common greater than 40 factors per sport throughout the 2020-21 season, and their return will give Jokic some much-needed assist.
A greater group may assist Jokic’s case, however he’ll need to carry out a minimum of in addition to he did final season. That’s a excessive bar to clear given he averaged 27.5 factors, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists, and 1.5 blocks per sport.
Nonetheless, he’s solely 27 years previous, and gamers are likely to get higher, not worse, at that age. He additionally advantages from former winners having “aged out” of competition. In spite of everything, the oldest MVP ever was 35, and whereas there are a number of former MVPs like Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry, all nonetheless enjoying at a excessive stage, it’s unlikely that they’ll win one other.
The MVP is unofficially a younger man’s award. Don’t consider me? The final 16 winners have all been below the age of 30, and, since 2000, Steve Nash has been the one participant over the age of 30 to win the award.
Jokic has a number of benefits however will face robust competitors for MVP.
With the MVP award seemingly restricted to gamers of their twenties, there are nonetheless a number of gamers who can problem him subsequent season. His major opponents for the award are Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Jason Tatum, and Ja Morant, however Jokic has already crushed out a number of of these gamers for MVP earlier than.
All of these issues positively work in his favor, however he’s nonetheless removed from a lock to win the award once more. We’ve already established that historic comparisons are spotty relating to Jokic, however there’s a pattern that’s price discussing.
Take a look at the gamers who’ve received MVP in back-to-back seasons; Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Moses Malone, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Nash, James, Curry, and Antetokounmpo. Every of them was of their primes once they received the award, so it’s not as if they fell off after successful consecutive MVPs.
Efficiency alone doesn’t assure Jokic will win MVP subsequent season.
It’s probably that voters both decide reigning MVPs primarily based on their earlier MVP seasons, get bored with voting for them, or one other celebrity participant diverts consideration away from them. For instance, Antetokounmpo averaged an unimaginable 29.9 factors, 11.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists final season however solely completed third in MVP voting.
That is regardless of these numbers being akin to those he put up throughout his two MVP seasons. Typically stats, and even group data, don’t matter. There’s a state of affairs through which Jokic is pretty much as good, and even higher, subsequent season, however Embiid is the one which wins the award. Embiid is actually a worthy candidate, however some voters, who beforehand picked Jokic, might resolve to vote for another person moderately than choose the identical participant three years in a row.
Or, perhaps nice gamers like Morant, Tatum, or Doncic win the MVP just because their groups are higher subsequent season. That makes predicting who will win the MVP extremely sophisticated since particular person efficiency is seemingly solely part of the factors.
General, the Denver Nuggets ought to be a lot better subsequent season, and there’s little motive to count on Jokic will fall off. It stays to be seen whether or not he’ll 3-peat as MVP, however he seems to have a great probability.
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