Bryce Harper Is Finally Crushing the Ball Again

Whereas Bryce Harper made the quickest return from Tommy John surgical procedure of any place participant on file, it got here with a value. Not surprisingly, he didn’t hit the ball as exhausting as standard within the early months of his return, or do as a lot injury as a result of he wasn’t elevating it with consistency. At one level, he went 166 plate appearances with out a house run, the longest drought of his profession, however even then, he remained a fairly productive hitter. Currently he’s been heating up, crushing the ball whereas serving to the Phillies climb to the highest of the NL Wild Card race.

Within the fourth inning of Monday night time’s sport towards the Angels in Philadelphia, Harper demolished a Lucas Giolito fastball that was taking part in in the course of the street:

The homer — a 111.9-mph scorcher with a projected distance of 429 toes — was Harper’s fourth in a seven-game rampage, throughout which he’s hit .500/.613/1.037. It was his eighth homer of the month, his highest whole since he hit 9 in September/October 2021 (and 10 in August of the identical season) en path to his second MVP award. He maxed out at seven homers in Could of final season, the month he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his proper elbow.

To be truthful, Harper’s August 21 homer, an inside-the-parker, most likely ought to have been scored as a double or triple plus an error on Giants heart fielder Wade Meckler:

Statcast says that given the essential specs on that shot — 101 mph off the bat at a 28-degree launch angle and a projected distance of 405 toes — it will have been a homer in 13 of the 30 ballparks, which is to say that he’s actually hit cheaper ones. He now has 13 homers this yr, with three coming in Could however none in June and solely two in July. After homering on Could 25, he went 38 video games (37 begins) earlier than including one other within the nightcap of a July 15 doubleheader, 13 video games greater than his earlier lengthy set simply final yr in a streak bifurcated by his broken left thumb, which sidelined him for 2 months.

Harper underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final November 23, having forestalled the inevitable for six months, lengthy sufficient to provide some memorable moments whereas serving to the Phillies attain the World Collection for the primary time since 2009. He returned to the lineup on Could 2, 160 days after surgical procedure. As finest as anybody can inform, the place participant he surpassed along with his fast return was Tony Womack, who wanted 182 days; he underwent the surgical procedure on October 6, 2002, every week after the season ended, and was within the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day lineup on March 31, 2003.

Womack was a slap-hitting speedster who hit all of 36 homers in his 14-year main league profession, however he was significantly horrible in his post-surgery season, batting .226/.251/.307 with two homers and a 35 wRC+ whereas getting traded twice. Harper is just about the antithesis of Womack as a hitter, however given his rapid return — which didn’t even embody a rehab project, simply round 50 at-bats price of stay batting observe towards teammates — it wasn’t all that shocking that he wasn’t fairly himself.

Harper wasn’t horrible within the early going; after going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his season debut, he went 3-for-3 with a double and a pair of walks the subsequent night time, homered off Boston’s Corey Kluber in his fourth sport again, and once more off Colorado’s Pierce Johnson in his ninth, by which level he was hitting an absurd .361/.439/.611. The hits quickly slowed down, each actually and figuratively; as Leo Morgenstern pointed out in late June when Harper was greater than a month into his house run drought, his exit velocity via his first 20 video games was solely within the seventieth percentile, down from his typical spot within the 90s (he was within the 92nd percentile in every of the previous two seasons).

Setting exit velocity and Statcast apart for a second, it’s not exhausting to see that Harper was out of whack on the plate simply by his conventional batted ball stats:

Harper isn’t as excessive a fly baller as — to make use of an apparent level of comparability — Mike Trout. Trout owns a profession groundball fee of 35.4% and a fly ball fee of 42.3%, for a 0.83 ratio. Harper’s profession charges are virtually the inverse, with a 41.4% groundball fee, a 36.7% fly ball fee, and a 1.13 ratio. As you may see from the desk above, his charges have been in the identical ballpark as these profession numbers in each 2021 and ’22, however via his first three months again, he was hitting way more grounders than flies; it’s solely in August that he’s approximated his profession fly ball fee.

In the meantime, the place Harper has pulled the ball at a 38.6% fee for his profession, he was properly beneath that in Could and June (the one really unproductive month right here) however has been nearer to his norm in July and August. With these patterns in thoughts, right here’s a have a look at his month-to-month Statcast numbers:

As you may see, Harper was properly beneath his standard common exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit fee till this month, although his barrel fee wasn’t far off from his Statcast-era common of 12.3%; he solely fell beneath that mark in July. His Statcast anticipated numbers have been truly fairly respectable all through these leaner months, however he fell considerably in need of his xSLG and xwOBA in his homerless June, a month when his contact stats have been stable if lower than his profession requirements. He put up simply an 82 wRC+ in June, in comparison with 141 in Could, 128 in July, and 212 to this point in August.

Digging deeper, Harper pulled simply 9 fly balls from Could via July (5 in Could, two apiece in June and July) and had only one double and three homers to indicate for it; all however one homer from that meager subset of extra-base hits was in Could. By comparability, he’s pulled 9 fly balls in August alone, leading to 4 homers. His fee of pulled flies per batted ball has greater than tripled, from 4.4% earlier than August to 13.4% this month. His Statcast-era fee of pulled fly ball per batted ball is 8.7%, and he was at 8.6% in 2021, however slipped to 4.2% final yr amid his accidents.

All of which is to say that Harper is trying way more like himself on the plate these days. His general batting line (.307/.400/.486, 140 wRC+) isn’t misplaced inside the ups and downs of his 12-year profession. He’s inside one level of his profession wRC+, even when his route there was an unfamiliar one, pushed by a career-high .381 BABIP however only a .180 ISO, his lowest mark since 2014. His general common exit velocity (91.6 mph), barrel fee (13.9%) and hard-hit fee (41.6%) are inside hairs of his profession averages, although his 113.7 mph most exit velocity is down 2.6 mph from two years in the past.

I went into this dig believing that Harper’s elbow had one thing to do along with his lack of energy, and possibly it was a contributing issue, but when so, we haven’t heard a lot about it. He’s missed only one sport in every month he’s been again (extra on which momentarily). Based mostly upon his sample of manufacturing, his enchancment might owe extra to raised mechanics in his decrease half, reminiscent of what NBC Sports activities Philadelphia’s Ricky Botallico not too long ago highlighted within the wake of a two-homer sport on August 17. However even that doesn’t clarify Harper occurring this tear whereas taking part in via again points. He left the staff’s August 10 sport towards the Twins after 4 innings resulting from again spasms, sat out the subsequent day earlier than returning to the lineup, and has DHed in 10 of his 13 video games since his absence. As not too long ago as August 23, he was nonetheless reporting back tightness.

When Harper hasn’t DHed, he’s performed first base, a place he had beforehand by no means performed professionally however one in all clear want for the Phillies. Rhys Hoskins tore his left ACL throughout spring coaching, sidelining him for the season, and between Alec Bohm, Kody Clemens, and Darick Hall, the staff’s manufacturing at first positioned it on the Replacement Level Killers list simply earlier than the commerce deadline. The Phillies started operating Harper via first base drills whereas he was rehabbing, however he didn’t make his debut there till July 23, and nonetheless has solely 15 video games on the place. That’s too small a pattern to get a real learn on his ability, however for what little it’s price, the metrics say he’s common there. The configuration — which made its first look since August 20 in Monday night time’s sport — permits the Phillies to place Kyle Schwarber at DH, one thing they meant to do with frequency after they signed him final yr as a result of, properly, you’ve seen him play the outfield. Harper, whose personal defensive metrics in proper discipline have hardly been pristine, hasn’t performed within the pasture since April 16, 2022, shortly after he got here up in ache following a throw to the plate.

Harper the outfielder doesn’t seem like within the staff’s plans this yr, however proper now that’s of secondary significance to the Phillies, who’re on a pleasant roll. They’ve received 4 straight, six of seven, and 16 of 25 in August. After posting a 25-30 file via the tip of Could, they’re 48-28 (.632) since, good for the majors’ third-best file behind the Braves (52-22, .703) and Dodgers (47-26, .644). At 73-58 general, they’ve a four-game lead over the second NL Wild Card staff, the Cubs (69-62), and that lead is vital, as a result of beneath the newish playoff format, the Phillies would play all three video games of the best-of-three Wild Card Collection at house.

Even whereas hitting .360/.448/.742 this month, Harper isn’t carrying the Phillies singlehandedly. Trea Turner (.313/.355/.606, 155 wRC+) has lastly emerged from a season-long droop, Schwarber (.209/.378/.558, 148 wRC+) has been thumping, and each Phillie with no less than 30 PA this month has a wRC+ of 100 or higher. Nonetheless, it’s reassuring to see Harper resume his spot on the heart of the joy, as a result of he’s pretty much as good when he’s within the highlight as any hitter within the sport.