Breaking down future Celtics player extensions with CelticsBlog’s Keith Smith

All through the Kevin Durant saga, one of many most important elements that was continually introduced up was Jaylen Brown’s future with the Boston Celtics. He has two years left on his contract, however he’s already due for a contract extension. Nevertheless, he’s not going to signal one anytime quickly, and it has completely nothing to do with the staff.

I spoke with NBA cap professional Keith Smith of CelticsBlog and Spotrac concerning the Celtics gamers who will want extensions within the subsequent couple of seasons. Along with Brown, this dialog included Grant Williams, Al Horford, and Payton Pritchard. However in fact, it began with the star wing.

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Brown’s upcoming extension

First, Smith laid out why Brown received’t be signing an extension this summer season or subsequent summer season. If he did, he could be leaving thousands and thousands of {dollars} on the desk.

“It’s not helpful in any respect for Jaylen brown to increase now. This isn’t something to do with the Celtics. The Celtics would love to increase him in the present day. As a result of he isn’t on one of many so-called designated participant extensions, Brown will not be able to increase for the max like what we usually see quite a lot of different guys do… So in that spot, Brown is about to make $30.7 million within the remaining yr, within the 2023-24 season. What he can do off of that quantity is he can prolong for 120%, or a 20% elevate off of that, for 3 years. Proper now in the present day, he may do this. That may make his quantity, let’s name it $36.9 million in 2024-25, $39.8 million in 2025-26, after which $42.7 million in 2026-27. Complete, three-year extension, $119.5 million. If Brown waits to grow to be a free agent, his first-year wage that he could be eligible for is $42.9 million. So, $42.9 million is, you already know, that’s roughly $6 million above what he may make in an extension, then you definately add on the raises from there, and we go from there. In order that’s why he’s not going to do the usual veteran extension this summer season.”

Smith outlines the potential extensions Brown may obtain in additional element here.

By ready to grow to be a free agent two years down the road, Brown will make considerably extra money on his subsequent contract. Signing a brand new deal proper now could be financially irresponsible, despite the fact that Boston would possible desire to ink him to a brand new contract as quickly as attainable.

That being mentioned, the excellent news for Celtics followers is that Boston can provide him extra money than another staff available on the market. So groups hoping to steal Brown in free company will already be at a right away drawback. Smith famous that, whereas the beginning wage could be the identical wherever he signed, the Celtics can provide him higher raises and an additional yr on his deal.

“If he went to a different staff, the beginning wage is identical, it’s nonetheless $42.9 million. The distinction is available in, it will possibly solely be a four-year contract, and there can solely be 5% raises. So that you’re taking a look at a most of 4 years, $184.5 million. So, even should you did the four-year to four-year, he’d be giving up about $7.7 [million] whole, however it’s that fifth yr with a possible choice on the tip, that additional $64 million, that’s what actually makes the distinction.”

There’s at all times an opportunity that Brown prefers signing with one other membership, as is at all times the case with free brokers, however when it comes to monetary achieve, the Celtics have extra to supply than anyone else.

However that’s not the place the Brown extension talks finish. These numbers all account for Brown’s base wage would seem like. Nevertheless, if he finally ends up successful MVP, successful DPOY, or making an All-NBA staff within the subsequent two years, he would qualify for a good higher beginning wage.

“There are a few various things that may occur right here. If Jaylen Brown wins MVP this season, wins Defensive Participant of the Yr this season, neither of these might be prone to occur, or if he’s named to All-NBA this coming season, which perhaps, proper? I don’t assume that one’s loopy. He would then be eligible for what individuals name the supermax extension… And that may be 5 years, $290 million, beginning at $50 million within the first season, then it’d be $54, $58, $62, after which $66.”

As famous by Smith, it appears unlikely that Brown wins MVP or DPOY, but when he takes a soar and the Celtics are top-of-the-line groups within the NBA, it’s not out of the query for him to make an All-NBA staff. At that time, Boston may give him much more cash.

And as a fast facet word, I spoke with Smith concerning the growing wage cap and what gamers are price these days. Gone are the times when $30 million was some huge cash, and now, that’s what potential All-Stars are being paid. So whereas $50 million might sound like a scary amount of cash to provide Brown, that’s simply what max offers are beginning to grow to be.

“I imply, $30 million contracts for gamers who’re a, let’s simply say, potential All-Star man. Which I feel should you sat down and made your record, proper, nicely, what’s it, 24 groups, 24 gamers make the All-Star Sport yearly. So that you’d in all probability sit down, you’d in all probability construct an inventory of 40 to 50 potential All-Stars in a season. That may be in that spot. That’s what the quantity goes to be on the low finish.”

So earlier than turning your head up at a $50 million contract, be sure to keep in mind that the wage cap is at all times growing. As Smith defined it to me, don’t consider $30 million (and even $50 million) as a uncooked quantity, consider it as a share of the cap, which is able to proceed to rise.

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Williams’ upcoming extension

Whereas Williams isn’t a max participant like Brown or a possible All-NBA candidate, his contract scenario is the extra urgent one. Brown has two fully-guaranteed years left on his deal, whereas Williams’ contract is up on the finish of the upcoming season.

The 23-year-old ahead took an enormous leap final yr and is poised to play an enormous function in Boston’s rotation once more this season. He’s extension eligible proper now, and based on Smith, we must always begin listening to extra chatter about an extension for Williams because the October 17 deadline approaches.

“So 10/17. That’s the final day to signal a rookie scale extension. So, for Grant, we’re principally right down to, name it a month and a half left to do this. Not unusual. Usually, it’s your no-brainer max guys who come off the board first with these rookie scale offers. Then after that, you’ll see guys like RJ Barrett, proper, not the total max. We did see Keldon Johnson get one finished earlier, that’s slightly bit unusual. However often, a man like Grant, there’s not going to be the total max, that’ll take slightly longer. A variety of occasions, what they wish to do, they prefer to get these finished proper across the begin of coaching camp or shortly thereafter. So my guess might be, let’s name it a month from now, is once we’ll in all probability begin actually listening to one thing about an extension for Grant.”

Final season, Williams was top-of-the-line three-point shooters within the league, and his versatile protection allowed him to be a staple within the Celtics’ lineup. Ime Udoka was snug enjoying him big-time minutes, which is large for a coach that requires gamers to be satisfactory on the defensive facet of the ball.

He’s not going to get a max contract, however Smith believes that the numbers for Williams may surpass the $10 million mark.

“I feel there’s potential that Grant will get one thing within the 12 to $13 million a yr vary for common wage. So that you’d be beginning in all probability someplace between $10 and $11 million after which climbing from there. Comparable-ish to what Rob[ert Williams] signed final yr appears to make sense to me, given his function, how he’s improved yr to yr, you already know, the truth that his recreation appears fairly projectable shifting ahead.”

And earlier than followers begin clambering concerning the comparability to Robert Williams, it’s essential to recollect the scenario. Final yr, Robert Williams was coming off of a 52-game season and two prior years of enjoying roughly 30 video games. He was an injury-prone large man who confirmed flashes of potential, and now his contract seems to be like a steal.

Grant Williams performed 77 video games final yr, averaged a career-high 24.4 minutes per recreation, and shot 41.1% from three-point vary. Robert Williams might have a better ceiling, however when it comes to consistency, the value is correct.

Additionally, whereas Boston has a chance to lock Williams into a brand new deal earlier than he ever hits the open market, there’s at all times an opportunity that the 2 sides can’t come to an settlement. And as unlikely as it could sound, there could possibly be groups on the market keen to overpay for Williams’ providers, as he’s nonetheless solely 23 (24 on November 30). Nevertheless, he might be a restricted free agent, so groups must pay him sufficient to make the Celtics balk at matching the provide sheet.

“I feel if you wish to get a man in restricted free company, usually you must overpay for them. Nobody’s clearly gonna go to a max for Grant. I imply, except he has some actually ridiculous yr this yr. However as you take a look at the groups that mission to have cap house, there’s a handful of groups that he may make sense on, that might pay him, you already know, one thing within the $15 to $20 million a yr vary. I feel if he was adequate to earn that sort of deal, then the Celtics in all probability take into consideration matching after which figuring it out. Nevertheless, they determine it out down the road.”

Smith additionally famous that Williams ought to anticipate to tackle a bigger function this yr, which may have an effect on his worth.

“I feel they’re going to be very considered cautious, I don’t understand how you wish to put it, with each Horford and Rob this yr. Horford, we already noticed, when it’s again to again or he wants a relaxation day, he will get a relaxation day. However I feel with each of these guys, it’s going to be, you already know, ‘alright, hey, they want an evening, give them an evening,’ after which that in all probability means Grant’s subsequent up… So it’s sort of a giant yr for him.”

Regardless of many Celtics followers giving Williams the Marcus Good therapy of “you like him otherwise you hate him,” he’s very clearly a staple inside the Celtics’ rotation. Paying him roughly $12 to $13 million per seasons places him on half with gamers like Richaun Holmes, Robert Covington, and former Celtic Josh Richardson.

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Horford’s upcoming extension

Final time Horford’s contract in Boston was up, he left. He signed with the Philadelphia 76ers, was swiftly traded after one yr, after which landed again in Boston, the place he had an outstanding season and was one of the crucial spectacular playoff performers within the NBA. And he did it at 36 years previous.

However that’s additionally the difficulty with a possible extension. By the tip of subsequent season, Horford might be 37 years previous, and we’re already listening to rumblings that he received’t play in back-to-backs within the upcoming season. In flip, Smith thinks Boston could possibly be very cautious with extending him.

“I feel what you’ll see might be one thing within the vary of, let’s say, two years, $25 to $30 million. , the place it’s in all probability cut up fairly evenly. Second yr, perhaps a staff choice, perhaps a partial assure, one thing like that. I might be shocked if it’s something past a two-year extension at this level, simply due to the place he’s at in his profession. I feel you wish to be be very cautious.”

Through the playoffs this previous season, some studies got here out saying Boston could be selecting up Horford’s contract on the full quantity for the upcoming season whatever the stipulations. Meaning the massive man will make $26.5 million within the upcoming yr.

Whereas it’s not a precise science, Smith believes that this could possibly be the Celtics’ means of paying it ahead, in a way.

“He’s solely assured $19.5 million proper now. And I feel, for the Celtics, it’s, ‘hey $19.5 million, we’d be thrilled to pay you that for this upcoming yr. $26.5 [million], that’s slightly bit a lot.’ However I feel what you nearly do is, you’re taking that additional $7 million, and also you add that in as a, ‘hey, that’s a prepayment for the following couple of years.’ It’s it’s not likely by any means. However I feel that’s sort of what you’re taking a look at.”

Handing Horford the additional $7 million for subsequent yr could possibly be Boston’s model of a preemptive “make-good” gesture to assist with negotiations down the road.

At this level, Horford and the Celtics are fairly tied to one another. The final time he left, it didn’t work out, and the staff is clearly higher when he’s on it. So it’s robust to think about negotiations going south, however there could possibly be a possible ready recreation left to be performed, and it’s not out of the query that Horford decides to name it quits if Boston wins a title subsequent yr.

“They’re not going to be insulting and be like, ‘hey, you wish to do a $5 million a yr deal?’ or something like that. As a result of I imply, he’s not going to do this both. I do marvel if there’s slightly bit on each side of, hey, let’s simply play this yr out realizing he’s in all probability not going to go away anyway, even in free company, if he needs to play one other yr. And let’s see the place it’s at. As a result of there’s a world the place I may see Al Horford, very simply saying, ‘hey, we received the title. I’m finished. I’m going out on high.’”

Nevertheless, that may then go away the Celtics in a little bit of a difficult scenario, however it’s one which they should take care of ultimately. The post-Horford period might be a slippery slope, as Robert Williams has thrived when he doesn’t have to protect opposing bigs due to Horford’s presence.

As soon as that point comes, Smith believes Boston will start to scour the open markets for bigs who can recreate the same function to the one Horford performs.

“That is a type of ones the place you begin taking a look at what free company seems to be like subsequent summer season. And, you already know, the excellent news is there are quite a lot of these sort of greater our bodies that ought to be out there, and I feel what they’ll in all probability do is, if Horford’s gone, then what you do is you’ll say, hey, you already know, Brook Lopez, Steven Adams. Jakob Poeltl. Can we snag certainly one of these guys for the mid-level quantity?”

Clearly, that’s an issue for an additional time, as Horford remains to be below contract for a yr. But when Horford retires after this season, or must tackle a good smaller workload, the Celtics ought to have loads of choices in free company.

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Pritchard’s upcoming extension

Lastly, that is possible the least urgent of the 4 potential extensions, as Pritchard is below contract for 2 extra seasons, and the Celtics are already loaded on the guard place. In keeping with Smith, we’re too far out to start out projecting any numbers in regard to a possible Pritchard extension.

“He’s not even extension eligible till subsequent summer season anyway. So, I feel at this level, for all events concerned, it’s, let’s simply see the place this goes. I feel it’ll be, you already know, hey, all proper, did we can we find yourself shifting Derrick white in a unique deal? Did Brogdon not work out, now he’s being moved on from? Both a type of issues in all probability opens the door for Prichard to return again. I feel there’s additionally a way of, what does it seem like a yr from now with Jaylen?.. However pondering extension, projecting something for him proper now, I feel it’s simply too far out.”

Pritchard is at the moment caught behind Good, White, and Brogdon within the depth chart, so he has a troublesome path to common minutes subsequent season. However as defined by Smith, lots can change within the matter of two seasons, so whereas Boston isn’t in an actual rush to increase Pritchard, retaining him round is wise.

With how younger he’s and the uncertainty relating to his function, Pritchard’s contract worth by the tip of his present deal may go in a bunch of various instructions.

“Is Pritchard going to be a $5 million level guard? Is he going to be a minimal level guard? Is he gonna have performed nicely sufficient to be a $10 million a yr backup level guard? I battle to see rather more than that for him.”

Smith additionally burdened the significance of selecting up staff choices for gamers on rookie-scale offers, noting that Boston will possible decide up Pritchard’s fourth-year staff choice someday quickly.

“One of many issues they must do by October 31 is decide up his rookie scale staff choice for subsequent season. I can’t see any purpose that doesn’t get picked up… You shouldn’t decline rookie-scale staff choices except certainly one of two issues occurs – it’s painfully apparent that the participant stinks and can’t play in any respect and has no potential… or the man is injured and also you don’t assume he’s ever going to have the ability to play… Apart from that, decide these up, as a result of [if you don’t], it’s solely going to go badly for you.”

Conclusion

So with the way in which issues look, the timeline for Celtics extensions may look one thing like this – Williams may ink one as quickly as coaching camp, Horford’s will possible come subsequent summer season, Brown’s the next offseason, and Pritchard’s (with a giant query mark) across the similar time as Brown’s.

And, circling again to the purpose on most followers’ minds, simply because Brown isn’t going to signal an extension sooner doesn’t imply he’s upset with the Celtics. The deal’s timing is a monetary factor, not a Boston factor.