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With the NFL season within the rearview and fewer than 5 weeks till Choice Sunday, it’s almost time for the annual Choice Committee reveal of the highest 16 groups, which can happen on Saturday. Barring a few upsets within the subsequent few days, the highest two traces appear pretty simple, however the crew I’m most interested by seeing revealed is Iowa State. The Cyclones are at present on the three-line for me, however understanding how the committee assesses them may go a great distance towards finding out the place to seed what has turn out to be a prolonged checklist of Huge 12 groups with sturdy metrics however poor non-conference power of schedule numbers.
Iowa State has served because the poster youngster for individuals who need to rail in opposition to the NET, because the Cyclones made a behavior of blowing out lesser opponents within the non-con, which boosted their high quality metrics and, consequently, their NET rating. 9 of ISU’s 11 non-conference wins fall in This fall, with the one exceptions a impartial courtroom win over VCU and a house victory over Iowa, each of which sit in Q2. The Cyclones misplaced their two hardest non-league video games, falling to Texas A&M and Virginia Tech within the ESPN Occasions Invitational. Huge 12 play has given the Cyclones an opportunity to show themselves although, and so they’ve picked up 4 Q1 wins, one other in Q2, and their solely two Q3 victories. The committee has made some extent of punishing groups with poor non-conference schedules prior to now, and the reveal on Saturday will give us a glimpse of how this season’s committee might view such an method to scheduling.
The Cyclones are hardly alone, as a number of Huge 12 groups are in an identical boat, comparable to:
• BYU (NET 8): 3-5 Q1 / 2-1 Q2 / Non-Con SOS 292 / 9 of 17 wins in This fall
• Texas Tech (NET 26): 4-5 Q1 / 1-1 Q2 / Non-Con SOS 296 / 8 of 18 wins in This fall
• Oklahoma (NET 31): 3-5 Q1 / 3-1 Q2 / Non-Con SOS 283 / 8 of 18 wins in This fall
• Cincinnati (NET 35): 2-6 Q1 / 2-2 Q2 / Non-Con SOS 297 / 8 of 15 wins in This fall
• TCU (NET 42): 3-6 Q1 / 1-1 Q2 / Non-Con SOS 323 / 8 of 17 wins in This fall
Right here’s a fast refresher about how the NCAA choice committee classifies wins primarily based on the NET score:
· Quad 1: Residence vs. groups ranked 1-30 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-50 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-75
· Quad 1A: Residence vs. groups ranked 1-15 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 1-25 / Highway vs. groups ranked 1-40
· Quad 2: Residence vs. groups ranked 31-75 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 51-100 / Highway vs. groups ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Residence vs. groups ranked 76-160 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 101-200 / Highway vs. groups ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Residence vs. groups ranked 161-351 / Impartial vs. groups ranked 201-351 / Highway vs. groups ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections under are primarily based on all video games performed by February 12, 2024. Following the bracket, I included some fast notes on the final 4 in and first 4 groups out. Notice: BYU was moved a seed line with a view to be positioned in websites that play on Thursdays and Saturdays.
| DETROIT (MIDWEST) | BOSTON (EAST) | |
| Indianapolis – March 22/24 | Brooklyn – March 22/24 | |
| 1) Purdue | 1) Connecticut | |
| 16) NC Central / Southern U. | 16) Inexperienced Bay | |
| 8) Texas |
8) TCU | |
| 9) Florida | 9) Michigan State | |
| Spokane – March 22/24 | Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23 | |
| 5) Dayton |
5) BYU | |
| 12) Appalachian State | 12) Richmond |
|
| 4) South Carolina | 4) Illinois | |
| 13) Akron | 13) Yale | |
| Pittsburgh – March 21/23 | Omaha – March 21/23 | |
| 6) Utah State | 6) Clemson | |
| 11) Mississippi State | 11) Nevada / Utah | |
| 3) Duke | 3) Iowa State | |
| 14) Morehead State | 14) Louisiana Tech | |
| Omaha – March 21/23 | Charlotte – March 21/23 | |
| 7) Saint Mary’s | 7) Texas Tech | |
| 10) Butler | 10) Boise State | |
| 2) Kansas | 2) Tennessee | |
| 15) Excessive Level |
15) Colgate | |
| LOS ANGELES (WEST) | DALLAS (SOUTH) | |
| Salt Lake Metropolis – March 21/23 | Memphis – March 22/24 | |
| 1) Arizona | 1) Houston | |
| 16) E. Kentucky / Merrimack | 16) South Dakota State | |
| 8) Texas A&M | 8) Virginia | |
| 9) Indiana State | 9) Northwestern | |
| Brooklyn – March 22/24 | Spokane – March 22/24 | |
| 5) San Diego State | 5) Creighton | |
| 12) Samford | 12) McNeese State | |
| 4) Auburn | 4) Wisconsin | |
| 13) South Florida | 13) UC Irvine | |
| Memphis – March 22/24 | Pittsburgh – March 21/23 | |
| 6) Colorado State | 6) Oklahoma | |
| 11) Nebraska / Ole Miss |
11) Grand Canyon | |
| 3) Baylor | 3) Alabama | |
| 14) Vermont | 14) UNC Wilmington | |
| Indianapolis – March 22/24 | Charlotte – March 21/23 | |
| 7) Kentucky | 7) Florida Atlantic | |
| 10) Washington State | 10) New Mexico | |
| 2) Marquette | 2) North Carolina | |
| 15) Quinnipiac | 15) Jap Washington |
Final 4 In:
• Nevada: The Wolf Pack had an incredible week, profitable at Utah State and following that up with a house victory over San Diego State. That makes 5 Q1 wins for Nevada, who additionally has a Q3 loss at Wyoming. Regardless of eight of their 18 victories falling in This fall, the Wolf Pack nonetheless have stable result-based metrics, however their predictives (notably BPI) are lagging behind. They host New Mexico on Tuesday earlier than touring to UNLV.
• Utah: A heartbreaking loss to Arizona in triple extra time was one factor, however the Utes adopted that up with a loss to Arizona State and have now dropped 4 of 5. Non-league wins over BYU (house), Saint Mary’s (highway), and Wake Forest (impartial) are all stable, however Utah is now simply 10-9 in non-This fall contests. A 1-5 mark in true highway video games doesn’t assist issues both, though the Utes have three straight highway contests up subsequent, which offers an opportunity to rectify that.
• Nebraska: The Huskers have related highway woes with a 1-7 mark in true highway video games and a 2-7 file in highway/impartial video games. Not surprisingly, all three of Nebraska’s Q1 wins have come at house, the place they’ve knocked off Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Three different Q2 wins are useful, as is the truth that the Huskers don’t have a loss exterior of the highest two quadrants, however a non-conference schedule ranked 328th doesn’t assist issues. They’ve the week off earlier than internet hosting Penn State on Saturday.
• Ole Miss: Sturdy result-based metrics and a gaudy 18-5 general file paint inform a constructive story for the Rebels, however they rank sixtieth or worse within the predictive metrics, leaving their case tough. Each Q1 wins have come on the highway at Texas A&M and UCF, however they’ve been blown out of their three hardest video games. Like many different groups talked about, the non-conference power of schedule is a possible subject at 321st. Ole Miss heads to Kentucky this week after which hosts Missouri on Saturday.
First 4 Out:
• Cincinnati: The Bearcats held a second half lead over Houston however couldn’t shut the deal, so even with stable predictive metrics, they’re on the skin wanting in for now. Cincinnati is now simply 2-5 in Q1 video games and 7-8 in non-This fall video games with a poor non-conference power of schedule. So, whereas they’ve “handed the attention take a look at” in quite a few shut losses, the Bearcats want extra high quality wins beginning Tuesday after they host Iowa State.
• Gonzaga: Saturday’s win at Kentucky was large for the Zags, who now have a Q1 win on their ledger. That stated, the Bulldogs are nonetheless simply 1-5 in Q1 contests and 3-6 within the prime two quadrants. 9 of Gonzaga’s 17 victories fall in This fall, and the result-based metrics aren’t overly spectacular in consequence. Nonetheless, the predictive metrics rank within the prime 20 as they enter the stretch run. The subsequent 4 video games are all simply winnable earlier than the Zags shut out the common season with highway video games at San Francisco and Saint Mary’s.
• Memphis: It’s been fairly a fall for the Tigers, who have been as soon as a protected seed and now sit at seventy fifth within the NET with poor high quality metrics. The outcomes-based metrics are higher due to wins over Texas A&M, Clemson, and Virginia, however a This fall house loss to Rice is tough to miss. A pair of giant highway video games await this week as Memphis travels to North Texas and SMU.
• Wake Forest: Like Cincinnati, Wake appears like a event crew, however the wins aren’t there but. The Demon Deacons are 0-4 in Q1 video games and simply 5-4 in Q2, with their greatest wins coming at house in opposition to Florida and Virginia, each of that are wanting higher of late. They don’t have a loss in Q3 or This fall, and their metrics are stable, notably their predictives which each fall within the High 30. Wake missed an enormous alternative at Duke on Monday, however they head to Virginia on Saturday with an opportunity for the season sweep.
Convention Breakdown:
Huge 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
SEC (9): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Huge Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
Huge East (4): Butler, Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette
Pac-12 (3): Arizona, Utah, Washington State
American (2): Florida Atlantic, South Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Richmond
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Solar: Jap Kentucky
Huge Sky: Jap Washington
Huge South: Excessive Level
Huge West: UC Irvine
Coastal: UNC Wilmington
Convention USA: Louisiana Tech
Horizon: Inexperienced Bay
Ivy: Yale
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Akron
MEAC: North Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Indiana State
Northeast: Merrimack
Ohio Valley: Morehead State
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Samford
Southland: McNeese State
SWAC: Southern
Summit: South Dakota State
Solar Belt: Appalachian State
WAC: Grand Canyon
West Coast: Saint Mary’s
Observe Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for extra ideas on school hoops and to obtain an replace every time new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2023-2024 Bracketology
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