Bo Bichette Nets a Three-Year Extension

Because the Blue Jays try to construct upon final 12 months’s 92-win season — their greatest since 2015 by way of won-loss document — they’ve locked up considered one of their younger, homegrown stars. Earlier this week, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson Smith reported that the group had agreed to a multiyear extension with Bo Bichette, thereby avoiding what might have been a contentious arbitration listening to. The phrases of the deal have been unclear on the time, however on Thursday, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Bichette will obtain a three-year, $33.6 million assure, with escalators and incentives that may enhance the overall worth of the deal to as a lot as $40.65 million.

Via the Related Press, Bichette is assured $6.1 million this 12 months ($3.25 million as a signing bonus and $2.85 million in wage) after which $11 million in 2024 and $16.5 million in ’25. Successful an MVP award would enhance his subsequent wage by $2.25 million, whereas ending second or third would add $1.25 million, and ending fourth or fifth would add $250,000. The extension buys out all three of his arbitration years — his age-25 by means of 27 seasons — with out delaying his free company, as he enters 2023 with three years and 63 days of service time. With out the deal, he and the Blue Jays would have headed into arbitration with the 2 sides as far aside as any within the majors this 12 months. According to MLB Commerce Rumors, the $2.5 million hole between the filings of Bichette ($7.5 million) and the Blue Jays ($5 million) matched that of the Astros and Kyle Tucker; Houston won that hearing on Thursday.

Bichette is coming off an excellent season, albeit one thing of an inconsistent one. He set a full-season excessive with a 129 wRC+ by way of a .290/.333/.469 line with 24 homers and 13 steals. His 4.5 WAR tied with Corey Seager for 14th within the American League and second amongst AL shortstops behind Xander Bogaerts, 0.1 WAR forward of Carlos Correa. That stated, his season was an uneven one which uncovered issues in a number of areas of his sport. He hit simply .213/.237/.298 (50 wRC+) in April and .257/.302/.418 (105 wRC+) by means of the primary half — lacking the AL All-Star group the place he made it in 2021 — earlier than batting .337/.378/.543 (163 wRC+) within the second half, capped by a .406/.444/.662 (217 wRC+) September. Fourteen of his 24 homers got here earlier than the break, however so did 100 of his 165 strikeouts; he trimmed his Ok% from 24.3% earlier than the break to 19.2% after.

On that notice, Baseball Prospectus’ Robert Orr noted that Bichette is among the sport’s extra prolific hitters on the subject of utilizing the alternative subject, however within the first half of the season, he could have been increasing his zone an excessive amount of — and finally hanging out too typically — whereas making an attempt to compensate for the dip in energy that got here from the much less energetic ball. With a extra disciplined strategy later within the season, his outcomes going oppo improved significantly. FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera linked that second half rebound to mechanical changes, most notably improved rotational path by way of the introduction of a scissor kick: “Main as much as contact, Bichette is transferring power in a special path than he did in July to maintain his middle of mass the place it must be. The scissor kick shops the power in his hips and makes his rotation transfer up by means of his backbone…” Rivera has GIFs galore for example his factors, and his piece is value a full learn (as is Orr’s).

Anyway, right here’s how Bichette’s general swing tendencies and opposite-field manufacturing look by way of our splits, which point out that he led the majors general with 72 opposite-field hits in addition to 30 for further bases. I’ve used the All-Star break because the cutoff:

And right here’s a take a look at his rolling O-Swing and oppo charges in addition to wRC+:

After the All-Star break, Bichette hit to the alternative subject with a a lot larger frequency and with far more authority. Statcast’s depend of reverse subject batted balls doesn’t match up precisely with that of Sports activities Information Options, which powers the splits and graph above; the counts by way of Baseball Savant are of 90 opposite-field balls earlier than the break, 84 after. Nonetheless, the info is per the observations above. Within the first half Bichette averaged 91.1 mph on balls he hit to the alternative subject, barreling 6.7% and producing a .375 xwOBA, whereas within the second half he averaged 92.0 mph with an 11.9% barrel fee and a .417 xwOBA (to not point out a .586 wOBA, 223 factors increased than his first-half mark on such balls).

It took plenty of work, however Bichette’s second-half rebound helped him roughly replicate the offensive impression of his 2021 season (.298/.343/.484, 122 wRC+). Even so, his sport wasn’t fairly as robust in a pair different areas. Contributor Leo Morgenstern noted that his baserunning took a step again in 2022; not solely did he drop from 25 stolen bases (with only one caught stealing!) to 13 (with eight caught stealing) however from 6.9 baserunning runs to -2.7; the 9.6-run drop was second solely to Starling Marte’s 12.5-run drop. Through Statcast, Bichette’s dash pace fell off by half a foot per second, from 28.0 (74th percentile) to 27.5 (52nd percentile), and his home-to-first time equally rose. A few of the drop could have been age-related decline, some could have been season-to-season variance (“His 2021 season represented one thing like his 80% percentile end result, whereas his 2022 season represented one thing like his 20% percentile end result,” wrote Morgenstern). It’s additionally potential that minor accidents slowed him down, despite the fact that he performed 159 video games for the second 12 months in a row; a participant doesn’t strategy 162 with out toughing out a couple of points right here and there.

Maybe extra troubling was Bichette’s defensive decline. By DRS he plummeted from +2 to -16, and by UZR the drop was from -5.2 to -15.4, although by RAA the dip was solely from -4 to -5, and in 103 extra defensive innings. The assorted parts of these metrics recommend that not solely did his vary lower considerably, however that he wasn’t nearly as good on the double play as earlier than, and his throwing suffered as properly. With out getting too wrapped up in what a single 12 months’s metrics inform us, it’s value noting, for instance, that by way of Baseball Prospectus’ brand-new Range Defense Added, Bichette was 2.1% under common by way of his performs made, and that by Stacast’s newish arm-strength measure, his 84.8 mph common aggressive throw was 1.1 mph under common for the place, rating sixteenth of the 32 shortstops with at the least 300 such throws.

The selection of defensive inputs shades the general view of Bichette’s season. By our model of WAR (which makes use of OAA for vary), Bichette’s 4.5 WAR was merely half a win shy of his 2021 whole. By bWAR (which makes use of DRS), Bichette fell from 5.9 in 2021 to three.6 in ’22, tied for thirty first within the AL general and sixth amongst AL shortstops.

For the entire nits I’ve picked, we’re nonetheless speaking a couple of participant who at the least by our measures was the fifth-most useful amongst gamers 24 or youthful in 2022:

Word that the Blue Jays have three of the highest 11 gamers there (I went to 11 with a view to embody Vladito), and that for the reason that two second-generation Jays broke in circa 2019, Bichette has been the extra productive of the 2, 11.8 WAR to 9.1, however he’s going to make lower than half of Guerrero’s $14.5 million wage from his first 12 months of arbitration eligibility.

Through Dan Szymborski, right here’s how Bichette’s ZiPS projection appears to be like over the course of the extension:

That appears like your usually conservative projection for a participant who’s produced a 127 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR per 650 PA up to now and continues to be a couple of weeks away from his twenty fifth birthday. Given the brand new dimensions of the Rogers Centre, I’d positively take the over, as a result of the modifications seem to favor lefties and oppo-hitting righties. Via The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath, these modifications particularly stand out:

• Left-centre subject shall be 368 ft (beforehand 375 ft) whereas the wall top will enhance to 11 ft 2 inches. Proper-centre subject shall be 359 ft (beforehand 375 ft) whereas the wall shall be 14 ft 4 inches excessive.

• The left-centre energy alley shall be 381 ft (beforehand 383 ft), whereas the wall top will enhance to 12 ft 9 inches. The appropriate-centre energy alley shall be 372 ft (beforehand 383 ft), whereas the wall will enhance to 10 ft 9 inches excessive.

Even with out accounting for a possible enhance from the ballpark, the ZiPS contract valuation for Bichette’s extension is $33.9 million, which is about as on-the-nose as one can get with these estimates. All of which is to say that his extension appears to be like to be a good one, neither an enormous cut price for the group or a steal for the participant. It doesn’t mess with the timing of his free company, nor does it preclude the opportunity of a longer-term, nine-figure deal if that’s what the 2 sides need. In gentle of that, will probably be fascinating to see whether or not the group works out a multiyear cope with Guerrero or approaches Kirk (who’s one 12 months away from arbitration eligibility) or Alek Manoah (two years away) with extension gives to additional preserve the group’s aggressive core. However one factor’s for positive: they’ve their shortstop for now.