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The Blue Jays and Mariners have swung the largest commerce of the younger offseason up to now, as Seattle has acquired Teoscar Hernández from Toronto in trade for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect, Adam Macko.
For the Mariners, the calculus for this commerce is easy: speedy enchancment on the offensive facet of issues by including one of many 30 greatest hitters in baseball. The desk under exhibits hitters with at the least 1,000 plate appearances for the reason that begin of the 2020 season, ranked by wRC+:
That 132 wRC+ comes with a 26.7% strikeout charge and 6.3% stroll charge. That shaky plate self-discipline and a BABIP that ran nicely above common (.345) made it unclear whether or not Hernández might maintain this success. However modifications to his stance and leg elevate unlocked part of his swing that allowed him to make exhausting contact within the air extra constantly. As soon as a hitter figures out how to try this and has a 96th percentile common exit velocity like he does, the chances are of their favor.
This commerce indicators just a few issues from the Mariners. The primary is that long-time outfielder Mitch Haniger is unlikely to return. That’s not surprising, on condition that he wasn’t prolonged a qualifying supply and that he appears to have already hit his offensive peak. The second is that they’re going all in to attempt to catch the defending World Sequence champion Astros. Hernández will not be a long-term addition; he’s underneath contract for simply the 2023 season. That is, primarily, a one-year rental to goose the offense.
Transport Swanson away isn’t very best for Seattle, given his incredible efficiency this season: a 1.85 FIP in 53.2 innings. However the group’s utilization of him within the postseason — he solely threw one inning in 5 video games of play — means that he’s seen as expendable, making him a simple alternative to incorporate in a commerce for a top-30 hitter. In any case, even when the Mariners love Swanson’s pedigree and stuff, it’s at all times value buying and selling center relievers for productive hitters, even when they’ve just one extra 12 months of group management.
That mentioned, I’m a agency believer in Swanson. His whiff charges on his four-seamer and splitter are each nicely above common, and he appears to have perfected how you can use them to go together with his above-average extension and straight excessive supply. The Jays’ most obvious weak point was their bullpen, so if their purpose was to enhance it, then they’ve succeeded.
The larger query mark within the deal is Macko. He topped out this 12 months with 38.1 innings in Excessive A, hanging out just below 36% of the hitters he confronted, however he additionally walked 12% of them. He was strong with a 3.77 FIP and three.21 xFIP as nicely. That’s all nicely and good, however with minor league pitchers, it’s at all times essential to get to the good things — actually. So I requested Eric Longenhagen, who is continually sourced for info, for the products on Macko, and fortunate for us, Eric bought just a few seems to be at him within the Arizona Fall League. Take a look at the video under to get a greater look of Macko’s stuff and mechanics.
Per Eric, Macko had some Jekyll and Hyde traits in Arizona, together with his secondaries and command coming and going relying on the outing. That is sensible, given his stroll charges. When he was on, his stuff was attention-grabbing. He has two breaking balls: a curve of the crazy ilk that is available in on the low-70s, and a slider that’s extra of a mid-80s gyro spin-dominant form. Macko tended to pitch backwards within the AFL with these two pitches, including a working four-seamer at 93–94 mph and topping at 96 to complete hitters off within the high of the zone.
To me, probably the most attention-grabbing tidbit was that Macko has reasonably quick arms and because of this can get down the mound to a low launch level. That’s very best for getting whiffs and popups on fastballs on the high of the zone. By the seems to be of it, the spin is fairly true as nicely. It may not be excellent, however Macko’s fingers keep over the ball very nicely, which works proper in keeping with the pitch enjoying up the zone. The curveball may not have nice specs by itself, however when paired with this misleading fastball, hitters battle to hit it. It’s the traditional pairing of excessive four-seamers and large depth curveballs under the zone.
When Macko has command of the slider, it flashes plus. In the course of the common season, he used that pitch almost 1 / 4 of the time, and the fastball nearly half the time. The curve had a few 15% utilization; he additionally featured a changeup sparingly. Per Eric, that pitch additionally flashed plus when he used it. I do know this all sounds thrilling, however it’s at all times essential to remind your self that the saying of “if the command is there” must be on the forefront of your thoughts. This massive “if” is sufficient to put Macko within the 45+ FV tier, reasonably than at 50 or above. However on condition that the Jays’ system isn’t too deep anymore, that can put him simply of their high 10 when Eric updates it.
To recap, the Mariners get a incredible hitter to fit proper into the center of their lineup, and the Jays get a top quality reliever and intriguing pitching prospect. This commerce is probably going solely a prelude to extra strikes from the Jays, although; there are rumblings throughout suggesting that George Springer’s time in middle discipline will quickly come to a detailed, and it looks like there’s one other play to be made there. In any case, you’ll be able to’t transfer a 130 wRC+ hitter for less than a center reliever and count on your group to enhance. That is all hypothesis, however there’s nearly definitely extra to return.
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