Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/15/22

2:01	Ben Clemens: Hey all people, welcome to the chat

2:04	Ben Clemens: It’s a pleasant chill offseason Tuesday, so let’s reply just a few questions on baseball, just a few questions on no matter is in your thoughts, and customarily take it straightforward

2:04	Visitor: Which section of the free agent market begins to maneuver first in your opinion?

2:05	Ben Clemens: I believe Verlander and deGrom will signal early on. They each seem to be they’ll have a ton of suitors, so no query of their market shifting slowly, and so they additionally appear to me like individuals who would wish to know the place they’ll be subsequent yr

2:06	Foolish Dan McGraw: ought to the Yankees think about using IKF behind the plate as Trevino’s again up?

2:06	Ben Clemens: No, to be trustworthy

2:07	Ben Clemens: I believe he was at all times miscast as a catcher; he was doing it to assist the crew out as a result of he’s a crew participant, however he’s higher suited as a utility infielder

2:08	Ben Clemens: I believe they’ll use him in that function, which is sensible to me

2:08	brad penny in your ideas: do you purchase the explanation from the STL entrance workplace that the web was too imply to Jeff Albert to retain him?

2:09	Ben Clemens: No, however I’m undoubtedly curious to listen to what the precise motive is that if it ever comes out

2:09	William: You’re the TB Rays..decide one: Josh Bell, Jose Abreu, Trey Mancini

2:09	Ben Clemens: Abreu for me

2:09	tortycraig: favourite butternut squash dish, if any?

2:10	Ben Clemens: I simply made one I actually like final evening

2:10	Ben Clemens: Nicely, that’s a lie, Jenna (my spouse) made it and I kinda helped

2:10	Ben Clemens: Roasted butternut squash, kale, toasted walnut, apple, and blue cheese salad

2:11	Ben Clemens: a pleasant fall salad is at all times a crowd pleaser

2:11	Ben Clemens: I believe butternut squash goes significantly nicely with fall flavors, too

2:11	Eric: Is there any tiny justification for the Royals re-signing O’Hearn and failing to guard some first rate prospects from R5? It’s mystifying

2:11	Craig: DFA Brentz and signal O’Hearn to an MLB deal? Off to an important begin in Kansas Metropolis!

2:12	Ben Clemens: I’m not as snarky as Dan Szymborski, however I favored his concept: the Royals have a kind, and that sort is individuals whose contact data they already possess

2:13	Kim: Why wouldn’t Benny take into account a pillow contract given how younger he’s?

2:13	Ben Clemens: I guess he’ll take into account one, however the counter-argument is fairly straightforward

2:14	Ben Clemens: His estimated profession earnings are ~22 million. Determine 50% tax charge efficient and a few spending, and possibly he has 8 million within the financial institution proper now, maybe rather less

2:16	Ben Clemens: That’s a stable begin, nevertheless it’s not by no means once more care about your funds cash

2:16	Ben Clemens: Signal a pillow contract and get harm, or simply underperform, and also you would possibly by no means fairly escape that orbit

2:17	Ben Clemens: I believe that taking three years and locking in being lifetime rich could be very tempting

2:17	Attractive Pete: I don’t purchase that Steve Cohen could be outbid for degrom. Do you agree?

2:17	Teddy: Ideas on what you’d do for 1B if you happen to had been the brand new Astros GM?

2:17	Ben Clemens: I’d say “Sure, Mister Crane, Yuli IS a spectacular participant who you’re keen on very a lot, that’s actually good data.”

2:18	Foolish Dan McGraw: Who would be the greatest free agent worth?

2:18	Ben Clemens: I’m going to stay with Taylor Rogers, with Tyler Anderson as a runner up

2:20	cody bellinger: are the dodgers gonna tender me a contract? or will i be tinkering with my swing 1,000,000 other ways on one other squad?

2:21	Ben Clemens: I believe there’s mainly no probability of Bellinger getting again into arbitration, however I’m undecided whether or not it is going to finish with he and the Dodgers agreeing to a pay minimize or a pure non-tender

2:21	Ben Clemens: Like, I don’t assume anybody else is lining as much as pay Bellinger 20 million both

2:22	Artie: Haven’t heard a lot about Brandon Belt. What do you assume could be in retailer for him?

2:22	Ben Clemens: my greatest guess is that he’ll be again on the Giants, however I’m not precisely certain what deal he’ll get. He was wanting outdated this previous yr, which is honest…. he’s outdated

2:22	Eric: To be honest on Brentz, he bought TJ and is probably going out for the yr

2:22	Ben Clemens: It’s extra the O’Hearn choice, I agree

2:23	2-D: A’s are taking part in some spring coaching video games in Vegas. Does this transfer the needle in any respect by way of them leaving Oakland?

2:24	Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so. It’s simply extra of the identical saber rattling

2:24	Ben Clemens: That stated, it appears to me as a bay space resident that the crew could be very all for shifting to Vegas

2:24	Ben Clemens: so I’d nonetheless make the chances excessive. I simply don’t thikn taking part in spring video games of their AAA stadium strikes the needle

2:25	Artie: what impact does the FTX collapse have on MLB?

2:26	Ben Clemens: Fewer jersey patches, and possibly (however in all probability not, c’mon it’s MLB) just a little extra due diligence earlier than signing crypto offers

2:26	Ben Clemens: I believe that they usually have the “oh, cash? I like cash, you’re certainly legit you probably have it” strategy

2:27	Ben Clemens: I’ll be trustworthy — I kinda thought FTX was legit

2:27	Ben Clemens: However I didn’t do prolonged partnership analysis earlier than linking my identify to them professionally, so I’ll minimize myself just a little slack

2:28	Dan: Did Aaron Choose simply have the very best yr of any individual who won’t ever be thought of the very best participant in baseball? What number of extra 9+ WAR season make individuals name him the very best participant in baseball?

2:28	Ben Clemens: I believe that relies upon closely on what you imply by “individuals”

2:28	Ben Clemens: I believe there are many individuals who at the moment take into account him the very best hitter in baseball

2:28	Ben Clemens: I imply, did you see his season?

2:28	Matt: Phillies signing one of many high SS….shopping for or promoting?

2:29	Ben Clemens: Promoting. I believe they roll with Stott

2:30	Cardinal Pink: Who’s Yadi’s inheritor to catching in St. Louis? Contreras?

2:30	Ben Clemens: I nonetheless assume it’ll find yourself being Sean Murphy or Danny Jansen

2:30	Ben Clemens: Granted, loads of that’s simply how bizarre it might really feel to see a lifelong Cub as a Cardinals

2:31	AJ Preller: who’re some worth, comparatively decrease value starters I can spherical out my rotation with?

2:31	Ben Clemens: Would possibly I curiosity you in a ludicrously lengthy rating of free brokers?

2:31	jabon hames: commerce proposal. Graveman, L. Garcia, and a prospect for Winker & M. Gonzales. who says no?

2:33	Ben Clemens: I believe I’d do that commerce because the Mariners

2:33	Ben Clemens: I suppose I’d possibly do it because the White Sox, too? Winker is an odd piece in that I believe he’ll be good once more however the error bars are big

2:34	Dan: What’s your psychological quantity for a way a lot somebody is “lifetime rich”?

2:34	Ben Clemens: Eh, I don’t have an actual quantity, however I believe it’s undoubtedly in 8 figures

2:34	Ben Clemens: Not that you could’t reside perpetually on 7 figures, simply, I assume Benintendi is just not into scrimping and saving

2:34	Ben Clemens: I really feel like most extremely paid athletes aren’t

2:35	Dan: How do groups strategy free agent doesn’t completely match a groups price range/plans is there a danger of insulting them with a low provide? Is it higher to say nothing in case your plans or the market change and now you do need them.

2:35	Ben Clemens: I don’t really know the reply to this, however I believe that generally extra communication is healthier

2:37	Ben Clemens: So you understand, inform the reality: “Hey, I’m undecided if this may curiosity you, and it’s early in our offseason so we’re undecided the place this may find yourself, however simply needed to open a dialog’

2:37	Ben Clemens: Being aboveboard pays off in the long term, as a result of it’s a repeated recreation with brokers for essentially the most half

2:38	Ben Clemens: If an agent is aware of that you simply’re a straight shooter, they’ll in all probability be extra prepared to take care of you even if you happen to inform them ‘hey this may not be the very best deal you see’

2:38	John Thacker: In the case of MLB making blunders involving selling the sport and taking too short-term a view of cash, a sponsorship contract with FTX for uniform patches isn’t almost as dangerous as making offers with RSNs to place your video games on blacked-out costly cable channels.

2:38	Ben Clemens: My private favourite is the Nationals seats branded with TerraUSD

2:39	Ben Clemens: They took the money upfront, in order that they’re nonetheless branded that method nicely previous the implosion

2:39	Tacoby Bellsbury: Does Jeff Passan’s reporting that the Rafael Montero deal was straight negotiated by Jim Crane have an effect on the way you view your column about reliever valuations in any respect?

2:39	Ben Clemens: Most definitely

2:39	Ben Clemens: Meg and I mentioned this yesterday as she edited the piece

2:40	Ben Clemens: There have been some uncredited rumors to that impact, however as we didn’t see any agency reporting, we didn’t point out it

2:40	Ben Clemens: I used to be making an attempt to be charitable however I didn’t love the Montero deal. I believe that was clear in my writeup

2:41

Cool: Fascinated about Joey Gallo free company matches, and gotta say, there will not be a greater match than Tampa Bay. Most large market contenders could also be apprehensive about counting on him to be an on a regular basis OF, however Tampa? They’d have extra willingness to restrict him to positions he can achieve and are at all times in search of an excellent buy-low alternative. Ideas?

2:41	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe Tampa makes a ton of sense

2:42	Ben Clemens: I believe that he’s in want of some worth rebuilding

2:43

Ben Clemens: Tampa looks as if an excellent place, and if there’s actually one thing to the truth that he simply by no means bought comfy in New York, nicely, it’s so much simpler to disregard followers when attendance is decrease, and the Rays followers who do attend video games appear very pro-team. I believe that may be an excellent match

2:43	Brooklyngail: Favourite crockpot recipe? Caveat: Not too spicy!

2:43	Ben Clemens: I don’t have a specific recipe for it however we make loads of chili within the crockpot, and I believe that chili is an ideal soup by way of spice stage. You simply set it nevertheless you need it

2:43	Ben Clemens: I’m a beans in chili man, sorry Dan

2:43	Wolfram-Arm McNulty: Ought to a comeback-seeking participant, like Conforto or Duvall, really choose to hitch a rebuilding membership, so his star shines brighter against this?

2:43	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe that may make sense

2:44	Ben Clemens: I imply, I can’t see into their coronary heart, and successful a hoop is a giant draw for each participant

2:44

Ben Clemens: But when their sole purpose is greenback maximization, and so they assume the group will do pretty much as good a job as anybody else at preparation/coaching sort stuff, I believe that going to a spot the place you’ll play every single day and be a transparent star is an efficient transfer

2:44	JJ: Would you ever host a fangraphs members board recreation evening on boardgamearena or equal platform?

2:45	Ben Clemens: Oh fascinating. That could possibly be a enjoyable factor to do, I must see how it might work however I’ve performed quite a few BGA video games over hte previous couple of years

2:45

9761014: Re: Jed’s “clever spending: comments- there are stories on the market that the Cubs will not be going to go to eight years on Correa, and so forth this yr. I do know groups usually don’t do that, however the Cubs supposedly have payroll room this season. So why not construction the contract to be loaded this yr – and if you happen to want an eighth yr, put it at $10 million?

2:46	Ben Clemens: I believe it simply is dependent upon what they’re making an attempt to keep away from with that eighth yr. It’ll nonetheless rely simply as a lot for CBT functions, so if the purpose of the ‘clever spending’ is cap-related, that wouldn’t assist

2:46

Ben Clemens: If it’s simply that the Ricketts don’t wish to spend a lot cash, nicely, they’re no dopes. You may’t inform them ‘Hey, I do know we stated spend intelligently, and I do know our greatest deal was 7/210 for Correa, however what about 7/230, after which we get him for a discount eighth yr for $10 million?’

2:46	Ben Clemens: like, that’s simply 8/240 with extra steps

2:47	Anthony: Assume it’s extra doubtless Tigers add a C in FA, or make a commerce with Toronto or another person?

2:47	Ben Clemens: make a commerce, I believe

2:48	Ben Clemens: It’s an excellent yr to be in search of catchers in commerce, and I’m not overly enamored of the present free agent crop

2:48	Ben: Mariners signing one of many high SS….shopping for or promoting?

2:48	Ben Clemens: Hmmm…. I believe I’ll say shopping for them pursuing one

2:48	Ben Clemens: Critically pursuing

2:49	Ben Clemens: I don’t know in the event that they’ll land anybody, nevertheless it looks like there’s sufficient smoke that there’s in all probability a bit of fireside

2:49	Carly: You talked about Benny taking 3 years in your reply above.. are you updating your projections from the 4 years within the High 50?

2:49	Ben Clemens: Oh no, simply didn’t look over my estimates and picked a quantity that may final lengthy sufficient to make him wealthy for all times

2:49	Ben Clemens: I imply… additionally, I’m not gonna replace my projections in any respect. I believe they’re pretty stable for what they’re, however one factor they’re completely not is reported and up to date

2:50	Ben Clemens: I’ll go away that to the enormous group of actually good baseball reporters who really hear what persons are more likely to get, and stick with my data-driven forecasting

2:50	Paul H.: Who says no: Xavier Edwards for Victor Robles. Rays get a Kiermaier substitute, Nats get a bit for his or her subsequent contending crew.

2:50	Ben Clemens: I believe the Rays say no to this one

2:50	Ben Clemens: Like, Reyes doesn’t appear higher than Jose Siri to me

2:51	Ben Clemens: So like…. why?

2:51	Brooklyngail: Would AA actually pivot from Swanson to Arcia? That simply doesn’t sound like him.

2:51	Ben Clemens: I’d be shocked. I believe they’re simply going to re-sign Swanson

2:52	TCM Stan: Any concept why Jon Morosi appears to be the one nationwide man breaking something thus far this low season?

2:52	Ben Clemens: None in any way

2:52

Visitor: Do you’ve got any sense for a way straightforward it’s for hitters to “prepare” or “put together” themselves for specific pitchers over the offseason? Like, can a hitter simply inform themselves to swing “over” a Cristian Javier fastball — and apply {that a} bunch to arrange for the following yr?

2:52	Ben Clemens: My sense is that, like first base protection, it’s extremely onerous

2:52	Ben Clemens: However that it actually does work, a minimum of considerably

2:53	Ben Clemens: For those who purchase a pitching machine that simply throws rising four-seamers all day after which spend the offseason making an attempt to hit them and swinging underneath them, you’re going to re-train your hand-eye coordination to image that ball coming in larger

2:53

Adam: Reporting says the Playing cards are prepared to spend a further $20M or so this offseason. And that they’re looking for a brand new beginning C, a further large bat, and arms for the pen. Is there a path for them to get all three of these items at that value, or if one thing has to provide, what do you assume will?

2:54	Ben Clemens: Lol yeah, they aren’t getting all of that for $20m/yr

2:54	Ben Clemens: Let’s be actual: they’re gonna signal Matt Carpenter, drag Brett Cecil out of retirement, and commerce for a catcher

2:54	Belli Flop: Wouldn’t that coaching make you numerous worse at hitting “generic” fourseamers and breaking stuff?

2:54	Ben Clemens: Yeah. That’s why hitting is so onerous!

2:55	Ben Clemens: I do assume that coaching on loads of backspinning fastballs is an efficient transfer general although

2:55	Ben Clemens: like, getting on high of excessive fastballs isn’t solely helpful towards Javier

2:55	Ben Clemens: there are different pitchers that may assist towards

2:55	Kelly: Is Curtis Mead or Taj Bradley on the 2023 opening day roster?

2:55	Ben Clemens: I’ll say a professional sure to Bradley, and a professional no to Mead, b/c to me the Choi commerce is clearing the way in which for a free agent signing reasonably than a promotion

2:56	Ben Clemens: It’s good to have the backup plan of selling Mead, although

2:56	Josh: Who do you see because the Astros long run heart fielder?

2:57	Ben Clemens: I nonetheless lean Myers, however McCormick appears to have the favor of the teaching workers, and he’s higher than I gave him credit score for earlier than the season

2:57	Ben Clemens: It’s actually going to be an in depth one

2:57	Simply Fowl: Is it time for Bloom to maneuver Verdugo earlier than he will get too costly in ‘24? Perhaps Padres or Texas?

2:57	Ben Clemens: I don’t assume they’re going to discover a strong marketplace for a nook outfielder nearing free company with restricted defensive flexibility

2:58	Ben Clemens: Like, possibly they might get a token prospect for him

2:58	Ben Clemens: A man who may determine into future main league plans

2:58	Ben Clemens: However the time to commerce him was when the Dodgers traded him

2:58	Ben Clemens: which is why the Dodgers did it! They’re sensible

2:59	Pat: So, what do you consider The Giants providing Joc a QO? Appeared just like the Twitter-verse was outraged..however, ought to they’ve been? In the event that they assume he’s an excellent match, straightforward to lock him up by killing his FA worth, proper?

3:00

Ben Clemens: It’s barely greater than I might have given him, so I believe he’ll settle for it, however I do assume it makes some sense for the Giants. They do an excellent job of maximizing his expertise, he appears to like it right here and is a fan favourite, and so they have cash to spend however really want so as to add offensive expertise

3:00	Ben Clemens: So holding their greatest hitter from 2022 is an efficient first step

3:00	Brooklyngail: What would a Brewers-Braves commerce seem like with Adames within the combine? This assumes Swanson leaves, after all.

3:00	Ben Clemens: It simply wouldn’t. Adames isn’t getting traded

3:01	Ben Clemens: The Brewers are at all times cost-conscious, however from what I’ve heard and in addition simply based mostly on my learn of the state of affairs, Adames is a part of their long-term hitting core

3:01	Appa Yip Yip: Late to the squash speak however you possibly can minimize an acorn squash in half, make two biga** meatballs, stick the meatballs within the scooped out squash, and roast the entire thing within the oven. Little yogurt sauce on high.

3:01	Ben Clemens: Now that sounds scrumptious

3:01	Anthopolous’ burner: I’m going to should get artistic to seek out room to get a SS and make different upgrades. How am I going to do it?

3:02	Ben Clemens: Lets be actual – you’re going to retain Swanson after which simply go down the listing of free brokers for pitchers or outfielders born in Georgia

3:02

Appa Yip Yip: What do you anticipate it is going to take to accumulate one of many out there catchers in commerce, both Murphy or one of many heads of Toronto’s chimaera. There are 4 good catchers out there -2 in FA 2 in commerce – and far more than 4 groups who must improve. I’m having a tough time determining commerce returns.

3:02	Ben Clemens: I believe that both Murphy or Kirk would require a package deal of gamers headed by an electrical prospect, assume high half of hte high 100, plus different guys. I’m much less certain on Jansen, and I don’t really assume Kirk will probably be moved

3:03	Ben Clemens: What you stated is true, however the counterpoint is that the majority groups “want” to improve at catcher and easily don’t

3:03	Ben Clemens: Some superb groups will head into subsequent yr with a giant query mark at catcher and simply reside with it

3:05	Foolish Dan McGraw: Do you assume Josh Donaldson bounces again?

3:05	Ben Clemens: In a phrase: no

3:05	Josh: Do you assume Leon has an opportunity to actually be the man sooner or later for the Astros?

3:05	Ben Clemens: An opportunity? Positive. I’ll say that 2022 wasn’t tremendous encouraging in that regard, although

3:06	Ben Clemens: I assumed he’d do higher in Triple-A

3:06	2-D: Which participant within the Rule 5 draft would you are taking based mostly solely on their identify? Blaze Alexander? Yohendrick Pinango? Warming Bernabel? Nerwilian Cedeno? Prelander Berroa? Milkar Perez?

3:06	Ben Clemens: Warming Bernabel

3:06	Ben Clemens: All the time a giant fan of that identify

3:06	Gabriel: Do you assume Tyler Anderson sustains his stage of success wherever he goes? All the time powerful to inform if guys like that who bought helped by a very sensible FO could make it work in a completely completely different context.

3:06	Ben Clemens: I do; I believe that he was sort of sneakily good in 2021 already

3:07	Ben Clemens: And that basically accelerated in 2022

3:07	Ben Clemens: I’m really writing about him as we communicate

3:07	Ben Clemens: Nicely, advantageous, I took a break for this chat — nevertheless it’s popping out tomorrow

3:07	Matty Arnie: 6/125 for Woodruff and 6/200 for Burnes, tempting sufficient for both to forego FA?

3:07	Ben Clemens: I believe I’d take that if I had been Burnes and switch it down if I had been Woodruff. That stated, I don’t assume the Brewers will provide both

3:07	Ben Clemens: They appear to be in value discount mode nonetheless

3:08	Belli Flop: What the hell occurred to the Tigers’ rebuild? Too reliant on pitching or simply an “it’s what it’s” state of affairs?

3:08	Ben Clemens: Yeah, little little bit of each

3:08	Ben Clemens: It’s not like their younger thrilling hitters have been nice both

3:09	Ben Clemens: That they had a fairly poor end result throughout the board this yr younger participant smart, the veterans they introduced in didn’t make up for it, and I assume they’ll simply hope to not hit these dangerous outcomes once more subsequent yr

3:09

Matt (Oceanside): Let’s say the Dodgers non-tender Bellinger and the deal they supposedly have given Kershaw is about 20 mil. Luxurious payroll is a wash with these two strikes and could be round 180 million. So with 53 million to spend (as a result of it looks as if they wish to keep underneath the tax threshold this yr), what do they do? If Anderson accepts the qualifying provide and so they resign JT at a decreased charge (like 10 mil), that’s 23 million left – doesn’t seem to be sufficient to get offensive influence to switch or keep Trea Turner. My prediction: They really resign Trea, non-tender Belli, and both signal Kodai Senga, or function with Tyler Anderson if he takes the qual? What say you?

3:09	Ben Clemens: I believe the Bellinger non-tender is probably going, as is the Kershaw re-signing

3:10	Ben Clemens: I believe they are going to maintain each Turners and doubtless miss out on Anderson, I believe he’s gonna flip down the QO

3:10	Ben Clemens: and yeah, both signal Senga (I’ve no clue right here, however possibly!) or do one other Dodgers-y dip into fascinating starters who may rebuild their worth

3:10	Your identify: What practical strikes can the Phillies make within the offseason to strengthen the crew?

3:10	Ben Clemens: Signal Taylor Rogers for the bullpen

3:12

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go get began on lunch. Thanks everybody for holding the chat queue overflowing even in the course of November. I couldn’t remotely get to all of the questions that had been requested, which I didn’t anticipate. Let’s do that once more in two weeks — Thanksgiving week is for going to Mexico, in my case a minimum of