Attaboys and Get ‘Em Next Times: Reviewing My Preseason Predictions

I’ll degree with you, FanGraphs reader: I can’t think about that FanGraphs evaluation is precisely what you’re most considering proper now, baseball-wise. The thrilling issues occurring are the video games on the sphere as they occur. These playoff races are superb. The schedule units up with a beautiful mixture of both-teams-in video games and rivals enjoying spoiler. In that context, I can’t think about that many individuals are dying to examine Tommy Kahnle’s changeup-heavy arsenal, simply to choose on a random article I lately wrote.

That’s by no means stopped me from writing about no matter random factor caught my eye, however I assumed I’d benefit from a gradual week (once more, simply in my sort of baseball evaluation, not in precise baseball) to go over some predictions I made earlier than the season. I wish to look again alone work for just a few causes — not simply to indulge in successes, however that’s actually a part of it. It’s additionally helpful to speak course of and separate unhealthy outcomes from unhealthy ex-ante choices, although to be sincere, that’s actually laborious, so I’m not sure I’ll get it proper at present.

I’ve named the column after one in every of my favourite bizarre sports activities issues. I at all times knew this, however I’ve seen it extra since I began enjoying in a leisure softball league. After you come back to the dugout, there’s a fairly good likelihood somebody will slap your butt with their glove. It doesn’t matter what you probably did, there’s at all times a motive to. Did you rating a run or make a terrific defensive play? It usually comes with an “attaboy” or “method to go.” Did you make an out or embarrass your self within the area? “Get ‘em subsequent time” is sort of assured. The butt slap? That’s a continuing. The phrases that go together with it? They’re versatile. With out additional ado, let’s determine whether or not my hypothetical dugout must be congratulating or consoling me.

Hitter Breakouts
I wrote a mini-article about 4 gamers I beloved for 2023 after a panel dialogue on the SABR Analytics Conference. You’ve in all probability heard me wax poetic in regards to the first participant on that listing: Lars Nootbaar. I don’t assume this was a very daring declare; as I discussed in that article, he actually broke out in 2022, and I used to be principally simply speculating that the issues he did effectively final 12 months would proceed into 2023.

Whether or not you’d rating this as one in my column comes all the way down to how you’re feeling about merely repeating final season. Nootbaar posted principally the identical wOBA and wRC+ as final 12 months, however with extra BABIP and fewer energy. His energy nonetheless seems to be good, to be clear; whether or not you’re considering Statcast numbers or simply the attention take a look at, it seems to be about the identical as final 12 months, simply with much less residence run luck. He posted the third-best batting line amongst Cardinals with affordable enjoying time and racked up the second-most WAR regardless of lacking a handful of video games all year long.

I can’t give myself a lot credit score for saying {that a} factor that was already occurring would preserve taking place. However to the extent that one of many abilities in making breakout picks is discovering breakouts after they’ve occurred and glitzing it as much as make the choose really feel extra enjoyable, I feel I did a superb job right here.

My different hitter breakout in that article was Riley Greene, and he’s a extra attention-grabbing case. I assumed his strikeout fee was certain to enhance, even when he didn’t change his method on the plate, and possibly even when he began swinging and lacking extra. Hey, what are you aware: his swinging-strike fee elevated by greater than two share factors, and but his strikeout fee declined marginally.

The hellacious energy he displayed within the minors was another excuse to wager on Greene, and that additionally performed out. He completely clubbed the ball this 12 months and deserved higher energy output than he obtained at the same time as he elevated his ISO by 50 factors. Positive, he had his justifiable share of batted ball luck when it got here to hitting for common, and he had Tommy John surgical procedure that ended his season prematurely, however the thesis that Greene would strike out much less and do extra injury on contact even with out significant modifications was just about spot on.

Pitcher Breakouts
These ones weren’t so good! In that very same mini-article, I highlighted two pitchers: Taylor Rogers and Tyler Anderson. I’ll begin with Rogers, who was primarily in that article as a result of I wanted 4 names to speak about and solely had three I actually preferred. My thesis there was that he had a excessive flooring as a strong lefty-killing reliever, and that if he developed a cutter, he may flip into top-of-the-line general relievers within the sport.

That didn’t occur. Rogers continues to be the identical sinker/slider pitcher he’s at all times been, and he walked extra batters than ever earlier than in his profession this 12 months. Of explicit fear, he walked 10.9% of opposing lefties; I can tolerate excessive stroll charges from platoon specialists so long as they’re strolling the powerful matchups, however he misplaced winnable battles too usually.

If there’s a lesson right here, it’s not betting on a pitcher to provide you with a brand new pitch. I don’t really feel significantly unhealthy about considering Rogers had a excessive flooring; his stroll fee ballooned and he nonetheless posted a 3.71 FIP and three.33 ERA. However a breakout implies one thing thrilling, and he doesn’t actually match that invoice, so this one looks like a miss, although not a very damaging one.

Anderson was quite a bit worse than I anticipated. He, too, had severe command points; his 10.2% stroll fee was greater than double final 12 months’s mark. I hypothesized that his new drop-down sinker would assist him deal with same-handed hitters, an odd drawback for a junkballing lefty, so after all he obtained completely tattooed by lefties this 12 months, and that sinker gave the impression to be a part of the issue.

The factor that made me considering Anderson within the first place was his arm slot change in opposition to lefties, and he doubled down on it this 12 months. He added a slider from that decrease arm slot, although he didn’t use it significantly usually. His greatest subject was that he couldn’t command pitches from that low launch level very effectively; he walked 14.3% of opposing lefties, a fully terrible mark, and that goes a good distance in direction of explaining his ugly platoon splits in opposition to them.

I’m nonetheless considering specializing in pitchers who can cut up the handedness battle in two and develop completely different arsenals for every, however I feel it’s clever to be respectful of how necessary a great growth and training employees is for such a tough method. Anderson prospered with the Dodgers and has thus far floundered with the Angels. Assuming I’m smarter than the Dodgers, that I noticed one thing distinctive that they missed, is clearly foolish. Betting on consistency from a pitcher who had beforehand made a profession out of inconsistency can also be a head scratcher. I’m principally pleased with the thought of betting on somebody who made big modifications, however I in all probability ought to have spent extra time desirous about the dangers that include these modifications.

Unheralded Prospects
I’ve been making an attempt to identify sleeper hitters for just a few years as a part of our prospect protection, however as I discussed in that writeup this 12 months, the method is getting more durable over time. This 12 months, the wheels actually fell off. I highlighted Angel Martinez, Osleivis Basabe, Gabriel Martinez, Esteury Ruiz, Yeiner Fernandez, and Jhonkensy Noel. Of that group, solely Fernandez had what I’d think about a profitable offensive season, although Basabe at the very least reached the majors on the sooner aspect of his timeline to salvage a bit of little bit of my dignity. This isn’t what you’d wish to see for a listing of wRC+’s of hitters I recognized as attention-grabbing:

I’d wish to inform you that that is simply an instance of excellent course of and unhealthy final result, however I don’t assume it’s. The large shortcoming of the methodology I’m utilizing — principally combing via earlier minor league knowledge for skillsets most correlated with eventual main league success — is that it doesn’t incorporate new knowledge. It’s not precisely straightforward to seek out, however you will get Statcast-style knowledge for loads of minor leaguers at this level, and it provides a helpful new dimension of study.

Ten years in the past, the subset of fellows that didn’t appear to be conventional energy hitters, posted strong minor league numbers, and weren’t high 100 prospects contained a mix of true slap hitters and little guys who crushed the ball or barreled it up with nice frequency. Lately, everybody has gotten higher at figuring out that second group as a result of we’ve higher knowledge. That makes for antagonistic choice; the fellows with good minor league numbers and good batted ball knowledge are simply capital-D dudes. They aren’t flying beneath the radar anymore. Noel was the one hitter on my listing who doesn’t match into that “weak batted ball class,” however his dangers are extra of the “yeah however can he hit” selection anyway.

Put merely, I don’t assume that the sort of sorting I’m doing is enough to determine unnoticed prospects with excessive upsides anymore, as a result of the sort of guys that this may need captured 15 years in the past are actually getting seen. Analysis has simply gotten higher, and if I need to discover good hitters that conventional evaluators are lacking, I’ll need to get higher, too. I’m undecided there’s a simple “repair” to the methodology, however I’m excited to strive some new concepts this offseason. Which of them? I couldn’t probably say till I’ve spent extra time making an attempt. However that is the preseason prediction I’m least pleased with, and I hope to have one thing higher as a replacement sooner moderately than later.

Playoff Groups and Awards
I’ve already talked a good quantity about my predictions due to one oddball: I picked the Orioles to win the AL East in our staff predictions. That one labored out fairly effectively, I’d say. The whole predictions have been as follows:

I additionally predicted a World Sequence of Dodgers over Astros — boring! I’m going to finish up doing fairly effectively within the AL and fairly poorly within the NL, although I feel that lots of people obtained bamboozled within the Senior Circuit. Everybody on employees predicted that the Padres would make the playoffs, and nearly everybody had the Cardinals too.

I feel that the lesson I’m going to remove from these is to stay with my methodology, which is to principally choose the probably groups but in addition attempt to publish just a few undervalued choices. I didn’t assume the Orioles have been the probably crew to win the AL East, however I did assume that they stood a good likelihood of creating the playoffs, and in addition that nobody would choose them. I like that juxtaposition, and I picked the Dodgers to win the NL West for the same motive, consider it or not. Solely three of 27 prognosticators had them profitable the division, and I assumed it was near a 50/50 shot.

I’m not likely positive the best way to assess the thought course of behind these predictions looking back, apart from to say that if you wish to stand out on workout routines like this, it’s a good suggestion to hunt just a few undervalued choices. You’ll be able to’t simply go rogue on each single choose, and leaning into the Giants as an alternative of the Diamondbacks as my unlikely crew within the NL didn’t pan out, however I wish to think about the train as a bracket-picking contest, and it’s laborious to win should you simply go all chalk. Sprinkling in just a few 10% possibilities that the remainder of the pickers are weighing as 0% possibilities is a enjoyable means to try this.

To be sincere, I don’t have quite a bit to say about my awards picks. I didn’t put as a lot time into these as I did into the playoff groups. I principally went chalk with Cy Younger and Rookie of the Yr choices, after which picked MVPs based mostly on which groups I assumed would have viable contenders on nice groups. If the Astros and Mets had delivered big seasons, I feel Alvarez and Lindor would have been on the coronary heart of them numerous the time.

Thanks for studying via this largely self-centered train. I feel there’s one thing to be realized from trying again on outdated predictions, to carry myself accountable if nothing else. I knew numerous the conclusions earlier than writing this text, however I nonetheless realized extra about what I dislike about my sleeper hitter methodology, in addition to what I do like about just a few different predictions I made. Hopefully after I write one thing related for subsequent 12 months, I’m 5% higher on the train because of doing this at present. All in all, I feel I’d award myself an attaboy, although with some clear get ‘em subsequent occasions within the combine.