Assessing the Chicago White Sox’s offseason outlook

Other than a brand new supervisor, the White Sox don’t appear destined for a significant shakeup after a really disappointing 2022 season.

Assured contracts

• Lance Lynn, SP: $19.5M by way of 2023. Contains $18M membership possibility ($1M buyout) for 2024
• Yasmani Grandal, C: $18.25M by way of 2023
• Yoan Moncada, 3B: $46M by way of 2024. Contains $25M membership possibility ($5M buyout) for 2025
• Liam Hendriks, RP: $29M by way of 2023. Contains $15M membership possibility ($15M buyout) for 2024
• Joe Kelly, RP: $10M by way of 2023. Contains $9.5M membership possibility ($1M buyout) for 2024
• Kendall Graveman, RP: $16M by way of 2024
• Eloy Jimenez, DH/LF: $25.5M by way of 2024. Contains $16.5M membership possibility ($3M buyout) for 2025 (additionally has membership possibility for 2026)
• Luis Robert, CF: $39M by way of 2025. Contains $20M membership possibility ($2M buyout) for 2026 (additionally has membership possibility for 2027)
• Leury Garcia, IF/OF: $11M by way of 2024
• Jake Diekman, RP: $4.5M by way of 2023. Contains $4M membership possibility ($1M buyout) for 2024
• Aaron Bummer, RP: $10.5M by way of 2024. Contains $7.25M membership possibility ($1.25M buyout) for 2025

Choice choices

• AJ Pollock, LF/CF: $13M participant possibility with a $5M buyout
• Tim Anderson, SS: $12.5M membership possibility with a $1M buyout (additionally has membership possibility for 2024)
• Josh Harrison, 2B: $5.625M membership possibility with a $1.5M buyout

Complete 2023 commitments: $135.47M
Complete future commitments: $249.85M

Arbitration-eligible gamers (service time in parentheses; wage projections by way of Matt Swartz)

Free brokers

What went fallacious with the 2022 White Sox? Take your choose. Begin with former supervisor Tony La Russa, whose storied tenures with the A’s, White Sox and Cardinals landed him within the Corridor of Fame in 2014. Upon being employed by the White Sox after the 2020 season, he’d been out of the dugout for 9 years. The White Sox gained the AL Central below La Russa final 12 months, however completed in second place with a .500 file in 2022. Well being points prevented La Russa from managing within the season’s closing month, and he finally introduced these points would require him to step down moderately than end out a contract that ran by way of 2023. Relating to the disappointing ’22 season, La Russa explained in an announcement, “I used to be employed to offer constructive, difference-making management and help. Our file is proof. I didn’t do my job.”

The membership’s seek for a brand new supervisor is ongoing, with Ozzie Guillen, Ron Washington, Pedro Grifol and Joe Espada amongst these within the working. Managers are usually not measurable in the best way gamers are, and I believe usually are inclined to get an excessive amount of credit score or blame for a group’s file. So I gained’t attempt to get into the deserves of every candidate, however hopefully this time round Rick Hahn, the group’s GM for the final decade, could have autonomy to make his personal selection. Hahn’s place because the group’s GM appears safe a minimum of for now. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post put it on the finish of September, “It’s unlikely longtime White Sox common supervisor Rick Hahn can pay for the group’s stark underachievement…whereas proprietor Jerry Reinsdorf’s legendary loyalty labored in opposition to the baseball ops division with the Tony La Russa hiring, it probably works of their favor now.”

Turning to the gamers, disappointments and failures abound for a membership that was a consensus favourite to win the AL Central and as an alternative completed 11 video games behind the Guardians. We’ll begin with the outfield, which served because the worst defensive unit in baseball. A lot of that has to do with Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets, who mixed to take 30% of the group’s defensive innings within the outfield. Vaughn, particularly, in all probability charges because the worst defensive outfielder in baseball in 2022. Whereas Sheets was precisely league common as a hitter, Vaughn improved to a 113 wRC+ as a sophomore. We’ll get to first base later, however that was Vaughn’s place by way of school and his temporary time within the minors, and it appears he’ll lastly settle in there for 2023.

That leaves the White Sox with just one outfielder definitively penciled in for subsequent 12 months: middle fielder Luis Robert. Robert, 25, didn’t take the star flip many anticipated in 2022. Well being has been a giant a part of that. Robert performed solely 68 video games in 2021 resulting from a proper hip flexor pressure that value him greater than three months. Robert hit so effectively in 43 video games since getting back from that damage that 2022 appeared like his attainable coming-out social gathering. As an alternative, he performed in solely 98 video games, managing a 111 wRC+ whereas enjoying a middling middle discipline.

Robert battled a groin pressure in April, however then went on a 62-game tear wherein he posted a 139 wRC+ regardless of a COVID stint within the center.  After that run of success, Robert handled lightheadedness, blurred imaginative and prescient, a wrist sprain, and a bruised hand. Whereas Robert’s expertise stays tantalizing, he’s performed in simply over half of his group’s video games since 2021, and the White Sox should be able to name upon backups usually subsequent 12 months.

A kind of backups might once more be AJ Pollock, who should determine between a $13M participant possibility and a $5M buyout after the season. As a 35-year-old coming off a down 12 months, Pollock doesn’t determine to high the $8M web worth of that possibility on the open market, so the good cash is on him staying put. The Sox additionally gave middle discipline innings to Adam Engel, who will be retained affordably by way of arbitration however just isn’t a lock given a 63 wRC+ on the season.

Pollock, Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez served as Chicago’s left fielders this 12 months. Assuming Pollock takes extra of a backup function, Vaughn strikes to first and Jimenez will get elevated DH time, the White Sox want a brand new beginning left fielder. A number of key White Sox hitters struggled in opposition to righties this 12 months. Free company gives a very stable slot in Andrew Benintendi, a high quality defender who hits right-handed pitching effectively. Joc Pederson is one other palatable possibility. Pollock could be a complement in a lefty-mashing function.

Proper discipline continues to be a revolving door for the White Sox; they haven’t discovered any success on the place since Avisail Garcia’s 2017 marketing campaign. At 24 years previous, Oscar Colas would possibly be capable to break the mould. Colas signed in January for $2.7M and spent many of the season hitting effectively at Excessive-A and Double-A, ending his season at Triple-A. Yoelqui Cespedes may very well be an element as effectively, however he didn’t hit effectively sufficient at Double-A to recommend he’ll reach MLB.

Since neither the well being of Robert nor the success of Colas is assured, the Sox might take into account a veteran addition able to enjoying each middle and proper discipline. Mike Yastrzemski, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier and Ramon Laureano might match that description. Bellinger may very well be non-tendered by the Dodgers, whereas Kiermaier’s membership possibility will likely be purchased out by the Rays. Yastrzemski and Laureano are arbitration-eligible for the Giants and A’s, respectively, however may very well be commerce candidates this winter.

Shifting to the infield, the White Sox are in a troublesome spot with Yoan Moncada. The 27-year-old is locked up at important value by way of a minimum of 2024, however he has continued to alternate good and unhealthy seasons since coming to the White Sox. In 2022 he was each unhealthy (career-worst 76 wRC+) and injured (indirect pressure, a number of hamstring strains). Barring a commerce, the group must pencil Moncada in at third base once more, with Jake Burger nonetheless serving because the backup possibility.

At shortstop, Tim Anderson’s $12.5M membership possibility is a simple option to train. Anderson is a superb participant when wholesome, however has solely performed in 62% of the group’s video games since 2021. This 12 months he handled a groin pressure and a torn ligament in his left hand. The White Sox caught lightning in a bottle with the sturdy play of veteran Elvis Andrus, who was launched by the A’s in August. If Andrus departs for a extra clear beginning job elsewhere, the membership will want a very good backup plan at shortstop a lot as they do with Robert in middle discipline.

Second base was dealt with by Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia in 2022. Harrison, 35, performed capably, however there’s nonetheless a reasonably good probability the group declines his $5.625M possibility after the World Sequence. Second base has been a void for the White Sox even longer than proper discipline has; they haven’t actually had a participant excel there since Tadahito Iguchi in 2005, excepting 109 stable plate appearances from Nick Madrigal within the pandemic-shortened season. Talking of Madrigal, there’s a good probability he’s made obtainable this winter if the Cubs signal a shortstop. The White Sox do nonetheless have Garcia below contract. Danny Mendick may very well be an possibility as effectively, as soon as he’s recovered from a torn ACL suffered in June. The free agent-market might provide gamers similar to Jean Segura or Kolten Wong if their choices are declined. Brandon Drury may very well be a stable addition given his capability to play each second and third base.

Over at first base, vibes are strong that Jose Abreu will likely be allowed to depart as a free agent after 9 profitable seasons. Whereas I perceive the will to plug Vaughn in at his pure place and go away DH at-bats for Jimenez, Sheets and Yasmani Grandal, the group appears pretty nonchalant about dropping arguably their finest hitter. It’s true {that a} group with Abreu, Vaughn and Jimenez has to make a defensive compromise by placing one of many latter two right into a nook outfield spot. Nonetheless, the offense takes a success with the possible lack of Abreu.

In Jimenez, the White Sox have a 3rd core place participant who has missed important time over the past two seasons. Jimenez has missed much more time than Anderson and Robert, enjoying in solely 43% of the group’s video games since 2021. Turning 26 in November, Jimenez stays able to a monster offensive season if solely he can keep wholesome. In 2021, he tore a pectoral muscle in spring coaching and made his season debut in late July. This 12 months, it was a late April hamstring pressure that required surgical procedure and value Jimenez greater than two months. Whereas the shortage of communication between gamers and groups through the lockout is a big variable right here, it’s truthful to ask: Why can’t the White Sox hold Robert, Anderson and Jimenez wholesome? Is it one thing inherent within the gamers or the group?

Behind the plate, the White Sox have a repeat of the Moncada state of affairs: caught with with a participant who has a giant contract and hit actually, actually poorly in 2022. Grandal, 34 in November, led all catchers with a 158 wRC+ in 2021 and was one of many worst-hitting backstops with a 68 mark this 12 months. Grandal handled again and knee accidents this 12 months, following offseason knee surgical procedure. Until they’ll unload his franchise-record contract someway ($18.25M of which stays), the White Sox should hope he can bounce again and supply worth in ’23. Grandal hasn’t topped 627 1/3 innings behind the dish since 2019. He must be complemented with a starting-caliber catcher. Seby Zavala was capable of fill that function this 12 months with a shocking 111 wRC+ on the plate. A veteran addition would nonetheless make sense right here.

Shifting to the rotation, the White Sox obtained higher outcomes than they may probably have anticipated out of Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto, who mixed for 337 1/3 innings of two.70 ERA ball. The one factor holding Stop again from being a bona fide ace is his stroll charge, which went up a tick this 12 months to 10.4%. He nonetheless managed to submit a ridiculous 1.51 ERA over his closing 23 begins. The White Sox management Stop for 3 extra years, and so they might take into account making an attempt to lock him up past that. Cueto, signed to a minor league deal in April, might signal elsewhere as a free agent.

Together with Moncada and Grandal, Lucas Giolito carried out effectively under expectations this 12 months. Whereas his SIERA was just about an identical to 2021, his ERA rose from 3.53 to 4.90. Strikeouts, fastball velocity and walks all moved within the fallacious course, and notably, Giolito’s batting common on balls in play rose from .269 to .340. That may’t all be blamed on the group’s protection or on unhealthy luck, as Giolito’s pitches had been certainly hit more durable than final 12 months, per Statcast. There’s not a lot to be achieved right here besides attempt to discover a strategy to bounce again; Giolito continues to be a discount at his projected $10.8M arbitration wage.

On the opposite finish of the spectrum, Michael Kopech pitched to a 4.73 SIERA however managed a 3.54 ERA, regardless of being the employees’s pre-eminent flyball pitcher working with the sport’s worst defensive outfield. A lot of that ERA stems from a .223 BABIP. It’s price noting: If the talents Giolito and Kopech demonstrated in 2022 — strikeouts, walks and groundballs — stay the very same subsequent 12 months, it’s best to anticipate Giolito to have the higher season.

At any charge, the White Sox have 4 beginning pitchers locked in for 2023. Even with inner choices like Davis Martin, Sean Burke and finally Garrett Crochet, the Sox could be well-served including a beginning pitcher.

With a collective 4.00 ERA, the White Sox didn’t get nice outcomes from their bullpen. However once more, ERA is unreliable, and the group did miss bats. Having traded Craig Kimbrel on April 1, the highest-leverage innings went to Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez. The primary three are below contract for subsequent 12 months, and Lopez is below group management. Veterans Joe Kelly and Jake Diekman are below contract as effectively, so Chicago’s bullpen appears fairly effectively set for subsequent 12 months until they commerce somebody to trim wage.

The White Sox opened the season with a payroll over $190M — simply the best in franchise historical past. Assuming Giolito, Stop, Kopech, Lopez and Mendick are tendered contracts, they’ll have about $167M dedicated to 18 gamers. Add in eight extra gamers on the league minimal and the payroll is round $172M. So in the event you’re Hahn, what do you do with a roster that’s already largely in place for subsequent 12 months, and restricted monetary wiggle room?

Operating the same group again subsequent 12 months with a brand new supervisor isn’t as loopy because it sounds. The Sox can add one respectable defensive outfielder and get Vaughn into his pure place, and the outfield protection will enhance drastically. They might use a brand new second baseman plus rotation and catching depth. Possibly Hahn will shake issues up with some trades, but it surely’s not a group with any actual surplus besides probably well-paid relievers. Many of the items stay in place for a 90-win group — significantly if Anderson, Robert and Jimenez are capable of keep wholesome subsequent 12 months.