As the Rangers Thrive, Marcus Semien Continues To Struggle

Writing about playoff developments is dangerous enterprise. All the postseason, up to now, contains 36 particular person video games. Within the common season, the league hit the 36-game mark on April 2. In case you regarded on the stolen base success fee that early into the season — 88% by these first 36 video games — you’d have thought we have been in for an absolute free-for-all below the brand new guidelines. Writing about particular person gamers is much more harmful. Essentially the most that anybody has performed on this postseason is 13 video games; 13 video games into his season, Matt Chapman led the majors in WAR. Jorge López hadn’t given up an earned run. Nobody on the Rays knew what it felt wish to lose a sport. Mookie Betts had a 13-game stretch in mid-April the place he slashed .184/.298/.306. Shohei Ohtani had a .538 OPS over 13 video games in mid-Could.

Nonetheless, we will’t not write concerning the postseason. It’s the postseason! The pattern dimension will at all times be small, however we should attempt to make sense of it anyway, to search out which means within the small pattern weirdness. And on that word, it’s time to speak about Marcus Semien.

By 58 postseason plate appearances, Semien has a 43 wRC+. Out of 36 gamers with a minimum of 30 PA within the playoffs, that ranks fifth-worst, forward of solely Martín Maldonado, Jeremy Peña, Evan Longoria, and Johan Rojas, hardly the type of firm that the two-time MVP finalist normally retains. Together with Longoria and Rojas, Semien is the one certified hitter with a wRC+ under 100 in all three sequence so far; his finest efficiency got here within the ALDS, through which he slashed .214/.267/.286 with a .247 wOBA and a 50 wRC+. After ending fourth within the AL in extra-base hits throughout the common season, he has simply two within the playoffs. He has but to hit a house run. His .038 remoted energy would make even Myles Straw shake his head. On prime of that, he hasn’t stolen a base both, though that in all probability has one thing to do together with his .276 OBP.

Each hitter goes by chilly streaks, and Semien is not any exception. Certainly, the veteran has a little bit of a status for inconsistency; he has bounced forwards and backwards between “MVP candidate” and “league-average hitter” every season since 2019. Even this 12 months, when he was one of the crucial dependable gamers within the sport all through the common season, he had some stretches like this:

Semien’s postseason wOBA is .237. Each level under the dotted purple line represents one other 12-game stretch over the previous three seasons when he was equally unproductive. It’s not widespread, nevertheless it occurs, and there’s actually no have to sound the alarms. After busting out of his newest chilly stretch round sport no. 400 on the graph, he hit for a .371 wOBA over the remainder of the season.

What’s extra, Semien is displaying a number of basic indicators of arduous luck this October. His .217 BABIP is 70 factors under his profession common, although his line drive fee is means up at 26.1%. His pull fee is low, nevertheless it’s solely down on groundballs, so if something, you might need thought his BABIP can be greater than normal. On prime of that, he has walked as many occasions as he has struck out, and his 10.3% strikeout fee is the second lowest within the postseason (min. 20 PA).

The Statcast anticipated metrics additionally supply purpose for optimism, although you must dig a bit of deeper to search out it. Semien’s xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all considerably greater than his precise stats, however they’re nonetheless not significantly inspiring:

However there’s some extra small pattern dimension weirdness happening right here. Stats like batting common, slugging share, and even wOBA work with a restricted variety of inputs. Common previous batting common is a binary system; each enter is both “hit” or “not successful.” In the meantime, slugging share and wOBA solely differentiate between forms of hit, not high quality of hit. In different phrases, a base hit off the scoreboard and a dribbling infield single are equally invaluable. In the identical vein, an out is at all times simply an out, whether or not it’s a scorching liner or a can of corn.

Anticipated stats are an entire different animal. The distinction between a base hit off the scoreboard and an infield dribbler might be monumental; so can the distinction between a hard-hit line out or a lazy pop fly. Thus, a number of pop outs or weak grounders can tank a batter’s anticipated stats in a small pattern dimension, and a few no-doubter residence runs could make them shoot again up. In Semien’s case, it’s the previous. He has put a number of too many non-competitive balls in play, and that awful contact is overshadowing all of the high-quality contact he has made.

Of the 46 balls Semien has put into play, 13 have had an xBA under .020 – simply over 28%. Equally, 20% of his batted balls have had an xBA under .010. Within the common season, these percentages have been simply 15% and 11%, respectively. There’s no defending that type of contact; there’s no such factor as “dangerous luck” on balls in play when the balls in play are hit so poorly. However on the finish of the day, one out is only one out. A popup isn’t any worse than a routine groundout, although the popup goes to have a harsher impact on a hitter’s anticipated stats. Extra to the purpose, being a great hitter is extra concerning the high-quality contact a batter could make, moderately than the low-quality contact he doesn’t make.

And Semien remains to be making high-quality contact at an identical fee. His line drive fee is up. He’s pulling balls within the air as a lot as ever. On all balls in play with an xBA above .020, he has a better xBA and an identical xwOBA as he did all year long. About 26% of his batted balls have had an xBA over .500, in comparison with 24% within the common season, and 9% have had an xBA over .800, in comparison with 10% within the common season. He’s nonetheless making good contact, nevertheless it’s more durable to see that, as a result of his poor contact has been worse than normal.

Semien needs to be simply high quality, nevertheless it’s price trying into all that low-quality contact a bit of additional. The largest drawback has been the mixture of popups and weak fly outs; to this point, almost one-third of his fly balls haven’t gotten out of the infield. Right here’s a compilation of all his batted balls with an xBA under .020, cut up into two movies as a result of MLB Movie Room caps any supercuts at 10 clips:

As you might need picked up, most of these pitches have been fastballs, and almost all have been within the strike zone. They various by way of velocity and precise location, however ten of 13 have been four-seamers, and all however one landed within the zone. Eight have been even within the coronary heart of the strike zone, as outlined by Baseball Savant.

4-seam fastballs aren’t a brand new drawback for Semien. Over the previous two years, the one providing he has a worse wOBAcon in opposition to within the strike zone is the sweeper, and the pattern dimension is far smaller for that pitch:

Two of the three groups Semien has confronted within the postseason took a four-seamer–heavy method. The Rays threw him four-seam fastballs on 18 of 32 pitches, and the Astros tossed him a four-seamer 43.4% of the time. Apparently, Houston lived outdoors the zone in opposition to him, giving him little or no to work with, however which may be why he swung so aggressively when he did get a fastball within the zone. The Orioles, for his or her half, leaned on the slider, throwing him one of many two breaking balls for 21 of 56 pitches. He did effectively to put off sliders and sweepers, swinging solely seven occasions (33.3%) and chasing solely thrice (21.4%). Maybe after so many breaking balls, he was a bit too aggressive when he noticed a fastball down the center.

Opposing groups have carried out effectively in executing their varied plans in opposition to Semien to this point within the playoffs. On the identical time, he’s nonetheless drawing his walks, making frequent contact, and hitting the ball with authority as typically as ever. He has created his personal dangerous luck with so many popups, however he’s additionally been the sufferer of some good defensive performs and a few well-positioned fielders.

Semien was arguably essentially the most invaluable participant on the Rangers all through the common season, enjoying all 162 video games and main the crew in WAR. By 12 video games within the playoffs, he has been the least invaluable participant on the roster. However postseason narratives can change within the blink of an eye fixed. Look no additional than Nick Castellanos, who had the best OPS amongst certified hitters within the NLDS and the bottom OPS amongst certified hitters within the NLCS. Maybe the Diamondbacks have a grasp plan of their of personal to carry Semien at bay, nevertheless it’s simply as attainable he’ll flip a number of of these popups into residence runs, turning round his postseason narrative on the identical time.