Andrew Chafin and Alex Reyes Head to the NL West

The free agent market skidded to a halt in February, with greater than every week passing with out a main league signing. Maybe groups have been ready to settle arbitration instances, holding out for the 60-day IL, or just taking part in free company hen with spring coaching proper across the nook. Or possibly they’ve all been busy attempting to wrap their heads round Chad Green’s contract in order to resolve the way it affected the market. Regardless of the case could also be, issues lastly began to select up steam this previous weekend.

Andrew Chafin got here to phrases with the Diamondbacks on Saturday afternoon, whereas Alex Reyes signed with the Dodgers shortly thereafter. Each contracts are one-year offers with incentives, and every comes with a workforce choice for 2024. Chafin will make $5.5 million in 2023 with the potential to earn a further $1 million in taking part in time bonuses. After that, the D-backs can choose up his $7.25 million choice or pay him a $750,000 buyout. Reyes, in the meantime, will make a base wage of $1.1 million in 2023, whereas his workforce choice is value $3 million. Each years of the contract include efficiency incentives that may push the full worth as much as $10 million.

Chafin is returning to the franchise the place he spent the primary decade of his skilled profession. In components of seven large league seasons with Arizona, he tossed 271.2 innings with a 3.20 FIP, good for 4.0 WAR. No Diamondbacks reliever was extra productive in that point. The D-backs flipped him to the Cubs on the 2020 commerce deadline, and the Cubs subsequently flipped him to the Athletics the next yr. Chafin signed with the Tigers after the lockout, and miraculously, he survived the 2022 commerce deadline, leaving the workforce on his personal phrases this winter. Sadly, he might have come to remorse that call. Chafin declined a $6.5 million participant choice for 2023; his new deal ensures him barely much less.

Hindsight is 20/20, however again in November, few may have disagreed with Chafin’s resolution to decide out. The 32-year-old had a wonderful yr in Detroit, making 64 appearances and posting a 3.06 FIP. His 2.92 xFIP and a pair of.97 SIERA have been the most effective marks of his profession.

The final time we coated a Chafin transaction right here at FanGraphs, Ben Clemens discussed the southpaw’s capacity to stop house runs by inducing groundballs and limiting onerous contact. In 2022, Chafin allowed much more groundballs, even much less onerous contact, and, accordingly, his house run charge remained low. Ben additionally talked about Chafin’s unimpressive strikeout charge and unsustainably low BABIP as potential causes for concern; Chafin responded by rising his strikeouts and posting a league-average BABIP final season. In different phrases, Chafin continued to do what he does nicely, improved in an space the place he hadn’t at all times thrived, and nonetheless succeeded with out particularly good luck on balls in play.

Nevertheless, the marketplace for relievers was all over this winter. Some took house profitable offers for his or her previous efficiency, whereas others made large cash for his or her future potential. Chafin, sadly, landed someplace within the center. He doesn’t have the monitor report of a Craig Kimbrel or a David Robertson, nor did any workforce see in him what the Padres noticed in Robert Suarez or what the Phillies noticed in Matt Strahm. Thus, he signed for much less cash than any of these pitchers, regardless of arguably pitching higher than all of them in 2022:

Whereas this certainly wasn’t the end result Chafin hoped for, the Diamondbacks aren’t a horrible touchdown spot. He’s aware of the group and the town, and the scale of Chase Subject will likely be variety to a pitcher who succeeds by limiting house runs. Chafin additionally will get the prospect to work with Brent Strom, broadly thought of top-of-the-line pitching coaches within the recreation. Strom helped Joe Mantiply and Kevin Ginkel take large steps ahead in 2022, and he helped many veteran pitchers throughout his tenure with the Astros.

Chafin will workforce up with Mantiply and Ginkel to pitch the late innings in Arizona. The D-backs had one of many worst bullpens in baseball final season, however they’ve been working to enhance the ‘pen this winter with the additions of Miguel Castro, Scott McGough, and eventually Chafin. The reduction corps now tasks to be a middle-of-the-pack group based on our Depth Charts. They’ll be in even higher form if Mark Melancon bounces again or certainly one of their prime pitching prospects takes a step ahead.

And talking of bouncing again and stepping ahead, let’s flip to Alex Reyes. Not like Chafin, Reyes didn’t select free company. As an alternative, the Cardinals thrust it upon him, unwilling to present him a roster spot or the $2.85 million he was projected to earn in arbitration. Despite that, the 28-year-old managed to do fairly nicely for himself this winter. On the very least, he’ll earn $1.1 million, not dangerous for a pitcher who missed the 2022 season with a torn labrum and whose restoration will preserve him sidelined nicely into 2023.

The potential has at all times been there for Reyes. He throws two fastballs within the excessive 90s and two breaking balls with strikes that put Jagger to disgrace. It wasn’t way back that we described him as “one of the best arm talents on the planet.” Sadly, he’s by no means had a lot of an opportunity to let that expertise blossom into one thing extra.

To name Reyes damage inclined is an understatement; health-averse could be a extra correct descriptor. It’s hardly ever the identical physique half twice, however it’s at all times one thing, from a torn UCL, to a torn lat, to a torn labrum, with a wall-punch-inflicted broken finger thrown in for good measure. Even when he has been wholesome, Reyes has struggled with management and consistency. After an All-Star first half of the 2021 season, he floundered for the remainder of the yr. From the All-Star break onwards, he pitched to a 5.52 ERA, 5.59 FIP, and 4.76 xFIP in 31 appearances. He nonetheless introduced the warmth and racked up strikeouts, however his house run charge soared, one thing he couldn’t afford given his already sky-high stroll charge:

That’s the final model of Reyes we noticed earlier than his shoulder damage, hardly an inspiring efficiency. Nonetheless, if any workforce will help him regain his kind and attain new heights, it’s the Dodgers. It’s no secret the Dodgers have accomplished a wonderful job serving to pitchers on the large league degree, as Noah Syndergaard mentioned when he took a reduction to signal with L.A. Thor is hoping the Dodgers will help him regain the speed he misplaced after main surgical procedure; Reyes is hoping for the exact same factor.

The Dodgers, for his or her half, get a gifted arm with subsequent to no danger. Reyes will begin the season on the 60-day IL, and even when all the things goes horribly fallacious, the workforce solely owes him simply over 1,000,000 bucks. If all the things goes proper, the contract will find yourself as an absolute steal.

The righty ought to return by the All-Star break, when he’ll be part of the bullpen. The Dodgers have a well-stocked ‘pen on the large league degree and a deep farm system, however there’s no such factor as an excessive amount of reduction pitching. Reyes may have a chance as soon as he’s able to take it. What’s extra, whereas he’s certainly destined for the bullpen in 2023, it’s not out of the query he joins the rotation the next yr. Reyes was beginning as lately as 2019, and the Cardinals had deliberate to maneuver him again to the rotation final yr earlier than his shoulder damage. The Dodgers, in the meantime, may actually use the rotation depth for 2024. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, and Syndergaard will likely be free brokers after the approaching season, whereas Walker Buehler’s future is up within the air. If Reyes proves himself a succesful starter, the Dodgers may have one much less gap to fill subsequent winter.

Andrew Chafin and Alex Reyes may hardly be extra totally different. One is a soft-tossing southpaw, whereas the opposite is a fire-armed righty. One overcame early-career Tommy John to develop into a wholesome and dependable pitcher, whereas the opposite has confronted numerous setbacks. One is a self-proclaimed “failed starter,” and the opposite may nonetheless have an opportunity to crack the rotation. But as totally different as they’re, each will head west this season, Chafin to an outdated house and Reyes to a brand new starting.