Alejandro Kirk Isn’t Your Average Catcher

Amongst catchers this season, Willson Contreras has been the speak of the baseball city. It’s simple to grasp why: Right here’s a fan favourite immediately having a career-best season in a stroll yr. That grabs everybody’s consideration. Abruptly, followers of others groups discover themselves hoping that their favourite membership will land him on the deadline or probably this offseason. On the sabermetric facet, there’s mounting evidence that Contreras has certainly taken a step ahead. A catcher with this a lot offensive upside is a rarity, and with a sturdy 161 wRC+, the veteran has turned himself into prized jewel.

However sufficient in regards to the Cubs or Contreras. Are you aware who’s second in catcher wRC+ this season? That’s proper, it’s Alejandro Kirk, who’s been the Blue Jays’ main backstop ever since Danny Jansen headed to the IL with a fractured finger. His 146 wRC+ isn’t too far behind Contreras’, and the corresponding triple slash is a magnificence: a .311/.392/.469 line is considerably of a rarity in at this time’s sport.

Kirk’s output won’t be so stunning should you paid consideration to his minor league numbers. Beginning with Rookie ball in 2017, he raked at each stage to which he was assigned, notching extra walks than strikeouts, which led to a well-deserved big-league promotion in 2020. The Blue Jays gave him a correct likelihood the next yr, and whereas he was serviceable, a 106 wRC+ in 189 plate appearances didn’t precisely go away a robust impression. This yr, nonetheless, Kirk seems just like the unstoppable power his minor league observe file advised he could possibly be.

If requested to determine one defining Alejandro Kirk trait, I’d gesture in direction of his all-fields, gap-to-gap doubles energy. And there’s no higher solution to illustrate that than by way of some good ol’ GIFs. First, right here’s Kirk staying on airplane with a excessive fastball and knocking it into heart for a single:

For one thing more difficult, right here he’s combating off a well-located cutter and sending it to the alternative subject:

Need an instance of uncooked energy? When Kirk sees a pitch he likes, he’s proven that he’s able to yanking it out immediately, as seen right here with this 110 mph dinger:

What stands out specifically is Kirk’s swing – it’s environment friendly and quick with only a few transferring elements, enabling him to cowl all 4 quadrants of the zone. Based mostly on these three clips, and with none extra context, you’d be inclined to suppose Kirk is among the higher, if not one of many extra balanced hitters, round. The numbers bear out his all-fields method: he apportions roughly a 3rd of his batted balls to left, heart, and proper, respectively. And as a bonus, this implies groups principally by no means shift in opposition to him. Properly, they’ve tried 5 instances this season, however that’s most likely the results of a why-the-heck-not mindset. I don’t blame them; Kirk has been on a roll as of late.

Moreover his batted ball tendencies, Kirk can also be outlined by the utter lack of swing-and-miss in his sport. His 87.8% contact price ranks seventh amongst hitters with a minimal of 200 plate appearances as of this writing; his 4.8% swinging strike price, in the meantime, ranks sixth. Amazingly, none of this has come on the expense of his contact high quality. As well as, his price of swings in opposition to pitches exterior the zone ranks within the seventy fifth percentile. Kirk isn’t a savant on this regard – with a give attention to contact, he can generally be led astray – however his self-discipline is sweet sufficient to grant him his justifiable share of walks and reduce the variety of poorly hit balls he places in play.

We’ve established what kind of participant Kirk is, however with out a level of comparability, all of those numbers could be fairly opaque. He’s a doubles hitter who hardly ever whiffs with strong swing choices, however what does that amalgamation of abilities seem like in the long term? To seek out out, I had a little bit enjoyable with participant comps. Kirk conveniently reached the 200 plate look threshold on Saturday, in order that’s what I used because the cutoff. From there, I checked out hitters’ barrel charges (per plate look), whiff charges, and chase charges (each per swing), and decided how related they have been to Kirk’s. This allowed me to generate an general rating, with a decrease rating representing the next diploma of similarity.

That’s all a bit difficult, however we’re right here for the outcomes, anyhow. Beneath are the 5 hitters who most have a resemblance to Kirk this season, with their 2022 numbers included:

That’s fairly the record of names, and there’s a cause why it’s such a star-studded desk! The mix of self-discipline and phone, in tandem with even modest barrel charges, is a confirmed system for achievement. That doesn’t imply Kirk is pretty much as good as a few of these different gamers, after all, however the resemblance is hanging. Past the metrics listed, reaching constant loft is an enormous issue, too, which is how a hitter like Betts or Ramírez is ready to crank 30 residence runs a season with out gargantuan exit velocities. Kirk may want to begin pulling extra of his fly balls if he needs an analogous energy surge, however for now, there’s no sense of urgency. He’s doing extraordinarily nicely on his personal phrases.

(As an apart, it’s bizarre to see Verdugo’s title pop up, although possibly we should always give him extra credit score – regardless of a career-low strikeout price and no seen decline in his batted ball metrics, he’s posted a lowly .254 BABIP. I’d guess on him to get it going within the subsequent month or so.)

It strikes me as fascinating how Kirk’s offensive fashion and on-field outcomes don’t resemble that of the typical catcher. To wit, the closest catcher to him by similarity rating is the Dodgers’ Will Smith, who ranks… thirty first. Catchers traditionally haven’t been identified for his or her scorching bats, however I believe it’s necessary to place into perspective simply how a lot Kirk stands above his friends. Right here’s one other desk, this time with three new columns: The common quantity for a catcher this season by metric, the league as an entire, and the way catchers rank among the many 9 positions (together with DH however not pitchers). Your typical backstop doesn’t strike concern in opposing pitchers’ hearts, however why?

The reply is pretty easy. Catchers don’t present a lot pop, nor do they put many balls in play, and so they don’t chase fewer pitches exterior the zone to compensate. That first level partially applies to Kirk as nicely, however when it comes to strikeout or contact price, he’s on the absolute left of the distribution, on an island of his personal. When you think about that catchers’ numerous obligations take away from time spent on working towards hitting, Kirk’s rise to prominence is all of the extra wonderful. A catcher isn’t presupposed to have his type of profile, however then once more, Kirk has spent most of his profession defying what’s been anticipated of him.

Oh, and I haven’t even talked about his pitch framing abilities. On the highway to the present, Kirk realized how one can catch with a one-knee stance, which has been proven to assist catchers fetch borderline strike calls. However as he amassed catching expertise final season, Baseball Savant credited him with a 47.2% strike price on borderline pitches, inserting Kirk within the backside third of certified pitchers. This season represents yet one more step ahead: He’s nabbing strikes at 50% clip, vaulting him into the highest 10.

There’s an awesome article by Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet that implies Kirk has cleaned up how he receives pitches, flashing delicate strokes in direction of the strike zone quite than violently stabbing the ball. It’s actually a believable rationalization, and when a participant exhibits up with higher charges, we’re much less skeptical if it’s tied to a visual change. However there are additionally features out of Kirk’s management. Framing numbers fluctuate relying on the pitching employees a catcher works with, in addition to the tendencies of the house plate umpire in a given sport. I’m considering Kirk’s 2021 wasn’t sufficiently big of a pattern. If that’s the case, it’s most likely greatest to separate the distinction and peg him as about a median pitch framer transferring ahead – until he retains deceiving umpires, that’s.

Will Kirk sustain this admirable offensive tempo? There are couple of areas the place the dreaded regression to the imply is inevitable – he’s been the beneficiary of an elevated line drive price, and it’s good to do not forget that simply because bloop singles are assigned a excessive xBA doesn’t imply they’re repeatable. Plus, his sluggish velocity will all the time put a tough cap on the BABIP he can obtain. In any other case, although, it’s protected to be optimistic about Kirk transferring ahead. It’s clear he has a knack for driving the ball, and his immaculate contact price is in regards to the most secure ground a hitter can depend on. The projections are rosy, too, seeing him because the proprietor of a 125-ish wRC+ who’ll tack on a further two wins above alternative by season’s finish.

The factor about regression to the imply, although, is it assumes we all know what a participant’s true expertise stage is. In Kirk’s case, I’m unsure that’s been outlined. He’s not the most effective catcher in baseball simply but – that throne at present belongs to Wilson Contreras, who has an edge when it comes to each offensive manufacturing and enjoying time. Over the previous few years, it belongs to the regular Will Smith. However Kirk is the likeliest inheritor round. It’s arduous to imagine, however he’s nonetheless solely 23 years outdated, with loads of time to refine his already potent bat and display that his newfound pitch-framing capabilities are actual. True, there isn’t a ton of precedent for Kirk’s teapot body in skilled sports activities, which does elevate questions on how he’ll age. However does that imply I’m going to disregard how a lot he’s been raking this season? Nope! So for now, let’s admire simply how a lot Kirk stands out within the catcher panorama, and admire how he’s realizing his All-Star ceiling, one double down the road at a time.

Statistics on this article are by way of the video games of June 18 until specified.