AL Wild Card Series Preview: Guardians vs. Rays

Of the 12 groups within the playoffs in 2022, just one was projected by each ZiPS and FanGraphs within the preseason as a sub-.500 crew: the Cleveland Guardians. However this lone Cinderella in a sea of imply stepsisters toppled the White Sox handily this 12 months, pulling away from the pack late to complete with an 11-game cushion within the AL Central. Because the league’s No. 3 seed by advantage of successful the division, Cleveland now hosts the Tampa Bay Rays within the three-game Wild Card Collection.

Broadly talking, there are broad similarities between the Guardians and the Rays. Each play in smaller markets and, relying on the way you have a look at the problem, have a payroll perspective someplace on the spectrum from admirably thrifty to Ebenezer Scrooge on tax deadline day. Nevertheless they acquired there, these groups embraced fashionable analytics early on, lengthy earlier than it was de rigeur in baseball, and have seen benefits. The Rays have been the league doormat throughout the early, very non-sabermetric days of the franchise, however after an abrupt change in route, they’ve the fourth-most wins in baseball over the past 15 years. The Guardians are usually not far behind.

Regardless of each groups frequently making the playoffs, they’ve solely met within the postseason as soon as earlier than, within the 2013 AL Wild Card Sport. Issues didn’t go Cleveland’s approach then, as Alex Cobb and Tampa’s bullpen mixed for a shutout, inflicting a fast exit from October. Now Cleveland has a three-game collection to get its revenge.

So, why have been the projection programs so down on Cleveland going into the season? Whereas I can’t presume to talk for Steamer, the principle grumbles that ZiPS had concerned the dearth of star potential within the outfield, an offensive famine behind the plate, and an uninspiring again of the rotation. Trying on the hits and misses within the projections might be the quickest approach to see the place the Guardians made up the shortfall. The projected WAR is adjusted to be the identical taking part in time because the precise WAR, so we’re evaluating apples to apples slightly than apples at hand grenades.

All informed, 10 gamers beat their pro-rate ZiPS WAR projections by not less than half a win.

ZiPS appreciated Kwan, however he comfortably beat even an optimistic projection and can be a critical Rookie of the Yr contender in a season with out Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman wreaking havoc across the league. Together with Gonzalez’s stable 12 months, the Guardians’ outfield mixed for a wRC+ of 99, their finest efficiency since these mid-2010s outfields that featured peak Michael Brantley. McKenzie was certainly one of my breakout pitcher picks prior to the season and labored out marvelously as he reduce his stroll price again right down to the place the peripherals instructed. (In case you comply with that hyperlink, I’d drastically respect it in the event you averted the Yusei Kikuchi part! Ouch.) The one preseason drawback place that didn’t get a substantial increase was catcher, although with the same old caveat that gauging defensive worth there’s a controversial topic.

After which there’s Giménez. Projected for a superbly acceptable three WAR in 557 plate appearances, he had a reliable superstar-level season and is about up for continued success alongside these traces. It’s fairly lucky for the group that he took his problem of changing Francisco Lindor so actually!

ZiPS nonetheless prefers the again of Tampa Bay’s rotation and bullpen and, in a five-game or seven-game collection, sees the Rays as a stable favourite over Cleveland, 58%–42%. However in a three-game collection, ZiPS sees the outcomes tighter — almost a coin flip, as depth is much less of a problem.

Sport One seems just like the pivotal one. The Guardians struggled in opposition to lefties all season, ending with a wRC+ 20 factors greater in opposition to righties; solely the Marlins had a bigger platoon break up in that route. Franmil Reyes, one of many crew’s few unmitigated disappointments this season, had rather a lot to do with this, because the disappearance of his bat took away one of many crew’s finest lefty-killers. This drawback did subside because the season went on and the eventual roster took form, with Cleveland’s offense going from a wRC+ of 75 in opposition to lefties within the first half to 94 over the second half. (The Rays are prone to throw two lefties at them as of press time, so I’ve projected them beginning Jeffrey Springs in Sport 3.)

That is the place Shane McClanahan’s well being needs to be a major concern for the Rays. Since lacking time with a shoulder impingement, he’s been a lot much less efficient, together with his strikeout price virtually disappearing. The rate’s nonetheless there, however hitters have all of a sudden began to make contact in opposition to him, with a major change between contact price earlier than the damage (67%) and since (80%). If these struggles proceed, a half-run dropoff in McClanahan’s RA is sufficient to make the sport a pure 50/50 affair (50.1% Cleveland, 49.9% Tampa Bay).

The platoon differentials might also come into play for Tampa Bay’s lineup. Rays hitters had a smaller break up in 2022 than Cleveland’s, with a nine-point benefit in opposition to lefties in wRC+. However the projections truly counsel that this distinction needs to be bigger, with the Rays lacking, for one motive or one other, among the left-handed hitting they’d earlier within the season. Brandon Lowe had a reverse platoon break up in a small pattern, but when wholesome, he nonetheless tasks as the very best hitter in opposition to righties within the group. (“If wholesome” is a giant qualifier, although, on condition that he was positioned on the injured listing three separate occasions throughout the season and missed the final three weeks of the 12 months with decrease again discomfort.) The Guardians appear prone to have solely two southpaws on the postseason roster at finest: Hentges and (possibly) Kirk McCarty.

Not having Lowe out there knocks about 4 proportion factors off Tampa Bay’s possibilities on this matchup.

The Rays did get a late-season boon to compensate them for this loss with the return of Tyler Glasnow. His velocity picked up proper the place he left off earlier than his Tommy John surgical procedure, and he even arrived with sufficient time to spare to get two tune-up begins within the majors on the finish of the season. The probably McClanahan-Glasnow-Springs rotation within the Wild Card spherical displays one of many extra exploitable weaknesses of Cleveland’s lineup. The Guardians had the second-worst offense in baseball in opposition to fastballs in 2022 at 40 runs under league common and mixed for a .383 slugging proportion on heaters. Each these numbers edged out solely the Tigers, who fielded a lineup that often appeared like a gaggle of Little Leaguers having a pickup recreation in opposition to Randy Johnson.

Regardless of the successes that Cleveland and Tampa Bay have had over the past decade, each nonetheless lack that one crowning achievement: a World Collection championship. The Rays have been bested in each of their Fall Basic appearances, and the Guardians have been ready for a title since 1948. Crapshoot or not, flags fly ceaselessly. By the tip of Sunday, we’ll know who will finish 2022 with disappointingly unfinished enterprise.