AL Championship Series Preview: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

For the sixth consecutive season, the Astros are within the American League Championship Sequence, and for the third time in that span, they’ll face the Yankees for an opportunity to play within the World Sequence. They beat the Yankees in seven video games in 2017 earlier than advancing to defeat the Dodgers, victories now tainted by the next revelations relating to their use of unlawful digital signal stealing (which, sure, included the postseason). Amid further allegations of sign-stealing, they beat the Yankees in six video games in 2019 earlier than shedding to the Nationals within the World Sequence. Suffice it to say, this isn’t a pleasant rivalry, although the Yankees have publicly downplayed its relevance because it pertains to this matchup.

Each of the Astros’ ALCS victories over the Yankees got here with A.J. Hinch on the helm, however Dusty Baker has taken over since. He’s making an attempt to take them again to the World Sequence for the second season in a row — they misplaced to the Braves in six video games final 12 months — and safe the primary championship of his 25-year profession as a supervisor. The 73-year-old Baker would surpass 72-year-old Jack McKeon because the oldest supervisor to win a World Sequence, however first issues first, the Astros must get there. After profitable an AL-high 106 video games and securing home-field benefit for so long as they’re nonetheless enjoying, the Astros swept the Mariners in a Division Sequence a lot nearer than its three-games-to-none end result suggests, with the video games determined by a complete of 4 runs and the 2 bookend video games gained in Houston’s ultimate half-inning; the finale prolonged to 18 innings and ended with a 1-0 rating through Jeremy Peña‘s house run. Yordan Alvarez was the large star within the collection, hitting a walk-off three-run homer in Sport 1 to finish a comeback from a 7-3 deficit after which a two-run, go-ahead shot in Sport 2; his seven RBIs accounted for greater than half of Houston’s 13 runs. Alvarez (4-for-15), Alex Bregman (5-for-15 with a double and a homer) and Yuli Gurriel (6-for-15 with a homer) collectively accounted for 15 of the Astros’ 28 hits, masking Jose Altuve’s 0-for-16 efficiency. In the meantime, a dominant Astros’ bullpen mixed to permit only one run and 9 hits in 20.1 innings, with a complete of eight relievers combining to strike out 23 batters whereas strolling solely 5.

The place the Astros swept their manner into the ALCS, the 99-win Yankees not solely needed to go the space towards the Guardians however wanted an additional day to take action as a result of rain on Monday evening compelled the second postponement of the collection. Stellar work from Gerrit Cole in his two begins, a robust begin from Nestor Cortes on three days of rest, some superb work by a banged-up bullpen, and a 9-3 benefit in house runs — together with three by newcomer Harrison Bader and two apiece by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton — helped to raise the Yankees previous the upstart Guardians. They didn’t have a lot time to rejoice on Tuesday evening; within an hour after the ultimate out, the plastic sheets defending the clubhouse from the spray of champagne had been taken down in order that the gamers may fly to Houston.

Whereas that is the Yankees’ sixth consecutive journey to the postseason and fifth underneath supervisor Aaron Boone, they haven’t been again to the World Sequence since 2009, after they gained their twenty seventh championship. They’ve misplaced all 4 of their subsequent ALCS appearances since, and have been unable to slay the dragon from Houston not solely within the aforementioned 2017 and ’19 matchups but in addition in ’15, after they misplaced the Wild Card Sport at house.

Rotation

The Astros haven’t performed since Saturday, and are available in well-rested and capable of line their rotation up nonetheless they want. Baker has formally introduced solely Verlander; I’ve pencilled within the different starters based mostly on how Houston rolled them out within the ALDS, after which Baker confirmed that Javier would have began Sport 4 had the Mariners gained Sport 3.

For Sport 1, Taillon will make his first begin since October 4; the Yankees had been ready to start out him in Sport 5 of the ALDS, however the collection’ second rainout restored Cortes’ skill to start out on three days of relaxation. Word that due to the compressed schedule attributable to the lockout, for this collection there’s no journey day between the if-necessary Video games 5 and 6, which implies that the one manner Cole could make two begins is to take one — both Sport 2 on Thursday or a possible Sport 7 subsequent Wednesday — on brief relaxation. I’m assuming the Yankees will kick that may down the highway so he will get the assured begin on regular relaxation, and keep on flip with the remainder of their starters. Which means Severino can be beginning on 4 days of relaxation for Video games 2 and 6, Cole on 5 days for Sport 3 after which probably three for Sport 7, Cortes on 4 for Sport 4, and Taillon on 4 for Sport 5. This can be a less-than-ideal configuration for the Yankees as a result of the downgrade from Cortes to Cole for a second begin is a giant one, and it might very properly wind up because the difference-maker on this collection.

The 39-year-old Verlander is coming off an historic season — the best for any Tommy John surgical procedure recipient within the again half of his 30s — and one that may in all probability garner him a 3rd Cy Younger award. Regardless of lacking 18 days late within the season as a result of a proper calf damage, he led the AL in ERA, xERA, and WAR (6.4) whereas rating third in FIP and fifth in Okay-BB% (23.4%). Although he didn’t miss as many bats as in his pre-surgery heyday, batters slugged .285 or decrease towards all 4 of his choices; his four-seam fastball’s Statcast run worth of -24 runs (24 runs prevented) was the majors’ finest. He was hell on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .201 wOBA, in comparison with a .243 towards right-handers.

In his 4 common season begins after returning, Verlander allowed simply 4 runs in 21 innings and was lifted after throwing 5 no-hit innings twice, however in his Division Sequence begin, the Mariners pummeled him for 10 hits and 6 runs in 4 innings. His fastball and curve had been each hammered, with the latter not drawing a single whiff. For what it’s price, he told reporters that upon reviewing his ALDS dud, he had recognized some “deep mechanical stuff” associated to his calf that wanted adjustment, however refused to supply additional particulars.

Valdez is coming off a reasonably particular season during which he set a significant league document with 25 consecutive high quality begins, solely two of which had been of the six-inning, three-run selection. The 28-year-old lefty made his first All-Star staff and led the league in innings (0.2 greater than Cole) and groundball fee whereas rating sixth in ERA and FIP and seventh in xERA whereas avoiding the opposite-field contact that has typically bedeviled him. He throws his sinker practically half the time, however held hitters to a .269 SLG or decrease on his three secondary choices, together with a .145 AVG/.195 SLG on his curve and .119 AVG/.202 SLG on his cutter. Platoon-wise, he held lefties to a .236 wOBA (down 84 factors from the restricted pattern in 2021), and righties to a .280 mark. In ALDS Sport 2, he threw 5.2 innings, permitting two runs whereas placing out six.

McCullers was restricted to eight common season begins as a result of a forearm pressure, however pitched exceptionally properly after returning in mid-August, permitting two or fewer runs in seven of these begins. He held the Mariners to 2 hits, two walks and no runs within the first six innings of Houston’s elimination-o-thon whereas throwing his slider — a pitch that held hitters to a .185 AVG/.222 SLG through the common season, with equally meager numbers in 2021 — a whopping 52% of the time, and turning to his sinker simply 14% of the time.

The 25-year-old Javier, who totaled 19 begins in 2020-21, started the 12 months within the Astros’ bullpen and was saved on a brief leash after becoming a member of the rotation in late April, however made 25 begins in what must be thought of a breakout season. Regardless of rating thirtieth in innings amongst AL starters and falling 13.1 wanting qualifying for the ERA title, he positioned seventh in strikeouts (194) and in a digital tie with Shohei Ohtani for the highest strikeout fee (33.2%) amongst these with not less than 140 innings. At that cutoff, he additionally ranked sixth in ERA and had the highest xERA, practically a quarter-run decrease than Verlander. He sports activities an impressive fastball-slider combo, holding hitters to a .183 AVG/.326 SLG with a high-spin four-seamer that averages 93.5 mph and a .121 AVG/.223 SLG with the slider; he produced whiff charges of 27.3% on the previous and 39.4% on the latter. He threw simply 1.1 inning within the ALDS, serving up a solo homer to Eugenio Suárez in Sport 1, and whereas he has 12 video games of postseason expertise, this will probably be his first begin.

As for the Yankees, Taillion is their most contact-oriented starter; he ranked 14th out of twenty-two AL ERA qualifiers in strikeout fee however completed in a digital tie with Verlander for the third-lowest stroll fee. He’s developed from a groundballer in his Pittsburgh days to a fly baller as a Yankee, more and more favoring his four-seamer and cutter as a substitute of his sinker. His finest pitch is his curveball, which held batters to a .170 AVG/.230 SLG and -8 runs. In his lone look within the ALDS, he did not retire any of the three hitters he confronted within the tenth inning of Sport 2, however remember that was the primary reduction look of his six-year main league profession.

Severino, after throwing simply 18 main league innings from 2019-21 as a result of accidents, appeared superb at instances through the first half of the season earlier than lacking 10 weeks as a result of a strained latissimus dorsi. He returned to shut the common season on a reassuring word, with seven no-hit innings towards the Rangers in his third begin again, and flashed his dominant kind in ALDS Sport 2, placing out six with no stroll in 5.2 innings; the final of his three runs allowed got here through an inherited runner. In the course of the common season, Severino missed loads of bats, and his four-seamer was again to averaging 96.3 mph (down 1.3 mph from 2018 however up from his wilderness years); he pumped it at 97.6 mph within the ALDS, topping out at 99.9 and getting a chase fee of 45% on the pitch. Batters managed only a .186 AVG/.377 SLG towards the four-seamer through the common season, with a run worth of -11. His slider has been distinctive as properly (.169 AVG, .303 SLG, 41.6% whiff, -6 runs).

Cole led the AL in strikeouts (257) but in addition homers (33) whereas posting his highest ERA since 2017, when he was nonetheless a Pirate, and his highest full-season FIP since that 12 months as properly. His scuffles down the stretch (5.22 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 2.76 HR/9 over his final 5 begins), which can have owed one thing to the shape of his four-seam fastball, had been a lot much less obvious throughout his two Division Sequence begins, throughout which he allowed two homers however solely three runs in 13.1 innings whereas placing out 16 and strolling simply two.

The Astros had been the majors’ high staff towards four-seamers, producing a .378 wOBA, and so they positioned sixth towards these 95 mph or larger, with a .329 wOBA — related on condition that Cole averages 97.8 mph on his. Batters hit the pitch for a .229 AVG/.420 SLG through the common season; its -8 run worth was down from -17 final 12 months. Cole’s slider stays his finest pitch, holding hitters to a .160 AVG/.280 SLG, however as Esteban Rivera noted, he’s begun emphasizing his curveball extra typically, throwing it 26% within the ALDS, up from 10.8% within the common season. That might assist maintain Astros hitters off steadiness, however they ranked among the many majors’ high six groups in going through each breaking pitches when it comes to wOBA (.294 towards the curve, .289 towards the slider).

The a lot much less overpowering Cortes is the Yankees’ lone lefty starter and has arguably change into the staff’s high starter, interval. Whereas he missed qualifying for the ERA title, amongst AL pitchers with not less than 140 innings, he tied for fourth in xERA whereas rating fifth in ERA and ninth in FIP. He does a improbable job of limiting onerous contact, significantly along with his four-seamer (which averages 91.8 mph) and cutter (86.9 mph). Batters hit the fastball for only a .169 AVG/.239 SLG, and its -22 run worth tied for second within the majors; in the meantime, they hit for a .191 AVG/.366 SLG towards the cutter, which had a -9 run worth. The Astros managed only a .286 wOBA towards cutters, which was in a digital tie for the majors’ lowest mark; that they’ll in all probability see Cortes in just one begin is one more manner during which the rotation setup performs to their benefit.

Bullpen

By the numbers, the bullpens of the Astros and Yankees ranked first and second within the AL in each ERA (2.80 and a couple of.97, respectively) and FIP (3.05 and three.35), with Houston’s 28.5% strikeout fee and New York’s 0.58 homers per 9 every topping the league. Ryan Pressly is the Astros’ nearer, coming off a robust season during which he delivered a 2.98 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and 35.7% strikeout fee whereas saving 33 of 37 possibilities. He’s a high-spin grasp with a pair of devastating breaking balls that held hitters to wOBAs within the .160s. That he missed time this 12 months as a result of knee irritation and neck spasms led to Rafael Montero netting 14 saves as properly whereas pitching to a 2.37 ERA and a couple of.64 FIP and producing the unit’s highest groundball fee (52.9%). Reflecting his years making an attempt to crack the Mets’ beginning rotation, Montero mixes 4 pitches into his arsenal, although he’s nearly solely four-seam/changeup towards lefties, whom he held to a .232 wOBA (.250 for righties). That changeup held hitters of each fingers to a .133 AVG/.183 SLG.

Righties Héctor Neris and Ryne Stanek are Baker’s different high-leverage guys. Neris pitched higher than his 3.72 ERA suggests, placing out 30% of all hitters and posting a 2.35 FIP thanks largely to a splitter that held them to a .173 AVG/.247 SLG and a 52.6% whiff fee. Stanek additionally throws a splitter that offsets a high-spin four-seamer that averages 98.3 mph; the heater held hitters to a .168 AVG/.235 SLG, the cut up .189 AG/.208 SLG. He pitched to a 1.15 ERA, however his 13.8% stroll fee inflated his FIP to three.02. Bryan Abreu put collectively a superb season (1.95 ERA, 2.12 FIP) in center reduction whereas combining a 35.5% strikeout fee with a 48.5% groundball fee.

Whereas the Astros aren’t carrying a single lefty reliever, Pressly, Montero, Neris, Stanek, and Abreu all held lefties to a .240 wOBA or decrease. Houston’s bullpen could have starters Luis Garcia (who turned in a useful 5 shutout innings in ALDS Sport 3) and José Urquidy out there for multi-inning assignments, in addition to rookie Hunter Brown.

Because the postseason arrived, the Yankees’ bullpen was in full disarray. A unit that had misplaced Chad Green and Michael King to season-ending accidents was additionally with out Clay Holmes, Ron Marinaccio, and Wandy Peralta, every of whom ended the common season sidelined by accidents. What’s extra, not solely had the ineffective Aroldis Chapman successfully ended his Yankees profession by failing to indicate for a compulsory exercise however Scott Effross went down in want of Tommy John surgical procedure simply because the ALDS roster was being assembled. Marinaccio continues to be out as a result of a shin damage, however the Yankees’ bullpen pitched to a 2.70 ERA within the ALDS, placing out 18 and strolling simply three in 16.2 innings. Holmes thew 3.1 scoreless innings in 4 appearances, whereas Peralta set a document by making 5 appearances; he allowed two runs in six innings whereas placing out seven with no stroll, saving Sport 4 and shutting out Sport 5 as properly. Whether or not Boone calls upon the righty Holmes or the lefty Peralta — or any individual else, as that is nonetheless a closer-by-committee scenario — to get the ultimate outs will rely extra on availability and matchups than any predetermined roles.

Holmes rode his devastating sinker-slider combo to a team-high 20 saves, and made the AL All-Star staff on the energy of a dominant first half (1.31 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 27% Okay%) earlier than struggling within the second (4.84 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 21.6% Okay%) amid again spasms and a shoulder capsule pressure, the latter of which required a cortisone shot through the staff’s ultimate homestand. Peralta, the unit’s lone lefty (Lucas Luetge, who didn’t pitch within the ALDS, was changed) used his sinker-changeup-slider combine to stifle lefties (.194 wOBA) and righties (.266). Regardless of having simply 9 profession saves (together with 4 this 12 months, third on the staff), he’s appeared unflappable within the huge moments.

Holmes, Peralta, the lastly wholesome Jonathan Loáisiga and deadline acquisition Lou Trivino are all sinkerballers, with groundball charges of 52% or larger for the 12 months. Loáisiga can nonetheless pump it into the excessive 90s, however his strikeout fee dipped from final 12 months’s 24.4 to 18.2%. His ERA practically doubled (to 4.17) and his FIP added practically a full run (to three.57), however he was efficient down the stretch and delivered 5 scoreless innings within the ALDS. Trivino pitched a lot better (1.66 ERA, 3.44 FIP) after coming over from Oakland within the Frankie Montas commerce. Montas, who was lit for a 6.35 ERA in eight post-trade begins, hasn’t pitched since September 16 as a result of recurrent shoulder irritation and isn’t stretched out to start out. He, Domingo Germán, and Clarke Schmidt can all presumably present a number of innings, which can significantly be needed in a scenario the place Taillon works a shorter begin. Righties Miguel Castro and Greg Weissert spherical out the unit however will probably be confined to low-leverage conditions.

Offense

The Astros had one of many AL’s high offenses, a unit that mixes energy, persistence and get in touch with abilities, and offers opposing pitchers only a few locations to cover. Each starter moreover Gurriel, the primary baseman, and the catching tandem of Martín Maldonado and Christian Vázquez produced a wRC+ of 100 or higher. 5 gamers hit not less than 20 homers and 4 of them are absolute studs, beginning with Alvarez, whose 185 wRC+ ranked second within the AL to Choose and whose slash stats (.306/.406/.613) ranked fourth, second, and third, respectively, along with his 37 homers additionally third. Alvarez annihilates four-seamers, sinkers, sliders, and changeups, however hit simply .146 and slugged .171 towards cutters, that are an integral a part of Cortes’ arsenal and make occasional appearances in these of Cole (albeit with a .578 SLG), Severino, and Taillon. He’s able to crushing opponents’ goals, as evidenced by his Division Sequence efficiency.  

As for the opposite huge boppers, prior to his ALDS 0-fer, Altuve had his finest season in half a decade, hitting .300/.387/.533 (164 wRC+) with 28 homers, 18 steals, and 6.6 WAR whereas placing out solely 14.4% of the time. Bregman truly walked extra typically than he struck out (13.3% vs. 11.7%) whereas rebounding from an off 2021 to hit .259/.366/.454 (136 wRC+) with 23 homers. Kyle Tucker matched final 12 months’s complete of 30 homers whereas swiping 25 luggage (the AL’s fifth-highest complete) in 29 makes an attempt and hitting .257/.330/.478 (129 wRC+). He’s one of many roster’s two lefties, together with Alvarez; neither has a lot of a platoon cut up (120 wRC+ vs. LHP and 134 vs. RHP this 12 months for Tucker, 163/165 for Alvarez). 

Elsewhere within the lineup, Peña did a commendable job changing Carlos Correa, totaling 3.4 WAR due to his sturdy protection, energy (22 homers), and baserunning (11-for-13 in steals, 3.7 baserunning runs), however a 3.9% stroll fee restricted him to a .289 OBP, and he slumped in the second half. Gurriel, the AL batting champion final 12 months at age 37, slipped from .319/.383/.462 (132 wRC+) to .242/.288/.360 (85 wRC+) as his barrel fee fell to a meager 1.9%. Chas McCormick is the common middle fielder and a greater hitter (.245/.332/.407, 114 wRC+) than Jake Meyers (.227/.269/313, 65 wRC+), the higher defender. At DH, Baker has remained very affected person with Trey Mancini, who slumped to a 77 wRC+ after hitting for a 114 wRC+ with the Orioles whereas placing out way more typically; Aledmys Díaz (96 wRC+, 12 homers) is the choice and by far one of the best bench bat on the roster.

On the Yankees’ aspect, Choose is the largest bat within the sport, having hit an ungodly .311/.425/.686 with 62 homers and 131 RBI, lacking profitable the Triple Crown by about 5 factors of batting common. Each his 207 wRC+ and his 11.4 WAR are the majors’ highest since Barry Bonds in 2004, however he has scuffled currently as groups have pitched him extra rigorously; although he homered twice within the ALDS, he went 4-for-20 with only one stroll and 11 strikeouts.

Whereas the Yankees had 10 gamers attain double digits in homers, together with Gleyber Torres with 24, Stanton with 31, and Anthony Rizzo with 32, they’re shorter on above-average producers in comparison with years previous. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 (132 wRC+), and whereas Torres and Stanton each had a 115 wRC+, the latter continues to be coping with an epic all-or-nothing slump. He’s homered 9 instances since getting back from the IL on August 25 together with one in every of the staff’s final three common season video games and two within the ALDS, however hit simply .165/.266/.367 over the past leg of the common season and was 2-for-16 with six strikeouts towards Cleveland. What’s extra, they’ll be with out DJ LeMahieu (116 wRC+) as a result of a ligament damage to his proper second toe, which has affected his swing. His absence made the emergence of Bader within the ALDS a very welcome improvement. After hitting .217/.245/.283 with no homer in simply 15 common season video games since being acquired from the Cardinals on August 2 (he was recovering from plantar fasciitis on the time), he went 4-for-15 with three homers within the collection whereas permitting Choose to return to proper discipline on a full-time foundation.

In the course of the ALDS, 23-year-old rookie Oswaldo Cabrera, who hit .247/.312/.429 (111 wRC+) in 171 PA over the ultimate third of the season, began three video games in left discipline and two at shortstop taking up for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who hit for simply an 85 wRC+ through the common season and made sufficient errors to strive Boone’s persistence towards Cleveland. It may’t be excellent news for IKF — nevertheless it’s welcome information for Yankees followers — that 22-year-old Oswald Peraza, a real shortstop, with a stronger arm than Cabrera, has been added to the ALCS roster. After batting .259/.329/.448 (106 wRC+) at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he hit .306/.404/.429 in 57 PA for the Yankees. Boone may begin both of the 2 rookies at shortstop, although if Cabrera’s there, the lack of Aaron Hicks to a season-ending knee damage in Sport 5 may put Stanton in left discipline for the primary time since July 21; such a transfer would additionally permit him to DH Matt Carpenter, who struck out in two huge ALDS spots, his first appearances since getting back from a fractured left foot that price him the ultimate two months of an unbelievable bounce-back season during which he hit .305/.412/.727 with 15 homers in 154 PA. Rounding out the lineup, Josh Donaldson hit a disappointing .222/.308/.374 (97 wRC+) however performed sturdy protection, whereas catchers Jose Trevino (91 wRC+) and Kyle Higashioka (83 wRC+) are OK offensively for catchers and able to operating into one every now and then, however mixed to go 1-for-14 within the ALDS.

Protection

The Astros have one of many strongest defenses within the league, having led the AL in Statcast Runs Above Common (26), positioned second to the Yankees in defensive effectivity (.719) by a single level, and ranked third in Defensive Runs Saved (67). That’s to not say that they’re sturdy at each place, nonetheless. The precise aspect of the infield ain’t what it was once, with former Gold Glove winners Altuve (-15 DRS, 1 RAA) and Gurriel (-2 DRS, -7 RAA) drawing combined opinions at finest. On the left aspect, Peña (15 DRS, 5 RAA) is excellent, Bregman (-4 DRS, 4 RAA) about common. Within the outfield, Tucker (13 DRS, 4 RAA) is a standout, McCormick and Meyers are each superb in middle, and Alvarez (5 DRS, -7 RAA) is one other participant with very combined opinions.

Behind the plate, Maldonado is one thing of a poster boy for Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense, as he’s very well-regarded for his skill to deal with the pitching employees. He was about common through our pitch framing metric (-0.8), however a lot better regarded by that of Baseball Prospectus (6.6), and a bit above common in throwing (0.5). Vázquez was above common by each framing measures (4.9 through FanGraphs, 4.7 through BP) and had the identical score for his throwing. 

The Yankees led the AL in defensive effectivity (.720) and DRS (129) whereas tying the Guardians for second in RAA (16). The Trevino/Higashioka tandem was 24.4 runs above common in framing through our metrics, with the previous main the majors at 19 runs, greater than the mixed complete of the 2 backstops who tied for second at 9.1, Jonah Heim and Adley Rutschman. Elsewhere, DRS loves Torres, (9), Donaldson (8), and Kiner-Falefa (10). Whereas IKF’s errors have him out of favor, he’s received a a lot stronger arm than Cabrera, who at each shortstop and in left discipline through the ALDS turned a number of popups and tender fly balls into misadventures. The outfield protection is stronger with Bader in middle as a substitute of Choose, who made 74 begins there, however having both Stanton or Carpenter out there’s in all probability a legal responsibility.