After a Decade as the Dodgers’ Closer, Kenley Jansen Joins the Braves

On the day the Dodgers made the signing of longtime Braves star Freddie Freeman official, Atlanta circled and poached one among Los Angeles’ high-profile free brokers. Kenley Jansen, a three-time All-Star who has spent the final 10 years because the Dodgers’ nearer, has joined the Braves by way of a one-year, $16 million deal.

The 34-year-old Jansen is coming off his finest season since 2017, pitching to a 2.22 ERA and three.08 FIP in 69 innings, saving 38 video games in 43 probabilities, and producing 1.8 WAR. He was extraordinarily troublesome to hit, holding batters to a .153 common (his lowest since 2016) and .233 slugging proportion (his lowest since ’11). Contact-wise, he held hitters to an 84.0 mph common exit velocity, .260 xwOBA, and 4.6% barrel price, which respectively positioned him within the 99th, 93rd, and 92nd percentile.

If there was a blemish on Jansen’s season it was his 12.9% stroll price, his highest since his cup-of-coffee season in 2010; when mixed together with his 30.9% strikeout price, it produced an 18.0% strikeout-to-walk differential, the bottom of his profession. Jansen was in a position to compensate because of his sequencing and his potential to restrict laborious contact, although he took the Dodgers and their followers on some rollercoaster rides. For what it’s price, whereas he walked 28 in his first 40.1 innings via the tip of July (16.3%), he walked simply eight in 28.2 innings (7.5%) the remainder of the way in which, that whereas posting a 35.8% strikeout price.

He carried that momentum into the postseason, the place he was completely stifling. His efficiency stood in marked context to 2020, when his October struggles led to his being marginalized even because the Dodgers received their first championship since 1988; Blake Treinen and Julio Urías saved the Dodgers’ final two wins of the World Sequence. This time round, Jansen struck out 14 of 25 batters whereas permitting simply three hits and strolling one; he wasn’t charged with a run, although he gave up a first-pitch walk-off single to Eddie Rosario in Recreation 2 of the NLCS after coming into with two outs and the successful run on second base. That put the Dodgers in a two-games-to-none gap from which they by no means actually recovered, nevertheless it wasn’t Jansen who squandered the Dodgers’ 4-2 lead heading into the underside of the eighth in that recreation.

Underlying Jansen’s 2021 resurgence was a reinvention. From 2010-18, he threw his minimize fastball round 87% of the time, however that proportion has dropped in every subsequent season as he’s built-in a sinker and slider. He threw the cutter lower than ever in 2021, simply over twice as typically because the sinker:

Mix that extra various arsenal with a barely extra vertical launch level and a considerable bump in velocity, and you’ve got a pitcher who was abruptly dominant once more.

Jansen’s departure ends a 17-year tenure within the Dodgers group, the longest of any 2021 Dodger; Clayton Kershaw, who was drafted in 2006 and who already had the longest run on the large membership’s roster (since 2008) now inherits that mantle. Signed out of Curaçao in November 2004 on the age of 17, Jansen spent his first 5 skilled seasons as a light-hitting, strong-armed cacher, hitting .229/.310/.337 whereas throwing out 37% of baserunners. Other than an eight-game stint at Triple-A Albuquerque in 2009, he didn’t climb greater than Excessive-A as a catcher, although he was the common backstop for Crew Netherlands in that yr’s World Baseball Basic, throwing out Ryan Braun making an attempt to steal and serving to to upset a powerhouse Dominican Republic squad twice. Simply 16 months later, he was within the majors as a pitcher.

Since then, he’s been one of many recreation’s prime relievers. His 350 saves are far and away a franchise file, surpassing the mixed whole of second-ranked Eric Gagne (161) and third-ranked Jeff Shaw (129). He’s 13th on the all-time list, and second amongst energetic pitchers behind solely Craig Kimbrel’s 372; he’s additionally second in postseason saves (19) behind solely Mariano Rivera (42). Amongst pitchers with at the least 700 innings in reduction, his 2.37 FIP and 36.8% strikeout price are each tops, whereas his 2.37 ERA is third behind solely Rivera and Billy Wagner; decrease these thresholds to 600 innings and Kimbrel (2.18 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 41.3% strikeout price) and Aroldis Chapman (2.36 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 41.1% strikeout price) each minimize the road. Jansen is now tied for 16th in R-JAWS, the experimental reliever model of JAWS that I’ve been utilizing to investigate relievers for the previous a number of years. He’s outside the Corridor of Fame image, but when he can milk this resurgence for an additional few years, he’ll have a shot at election.

In leaving the Dodgers to signal with the Braves, Jansen is becoming a member of the group he grew up rooting for. Fred McGriff and Curaçao native Andruw Jones have been favourite gamers of his, and his older brother, Ardley Jansen, signed with the Braves and spent 2000-06 as an outfielder of their system. “It’s superior to place this uniform on,” Jansen told reporters on Sunday. “That is the place it began for me. That is the place the hope began. That is the place the dream to change into a Main Leaguer began.”

In Atlanta, Jansen is reuniting with normal supervisor Alex Anthopoulos, who spent 2016-17 because the Dodgers’ vice chairman of baseball operations. His $16 million wage is a pay minimize from final yr’s $20 million, nevertheless it matches the AAV of his expired five-year, $80 million deal, and is tied with Chapman for the second-highest AAV of any nearer, with Liam Hendriks‘ $18 million main the pack.

Jansen will supplant Will Smith — who bought the ultimate outs of the 2021 World Sequence — because the Braves’ nearer, a transfer that Smith reportedly gave his blessing to. Via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman:

“Smith had an amazing season final yr,” Anthopoulos stated. “He was scoreless within the postseason and six-for-six within the postseason. He’s an unbelievable teammate and an unbelievable individual. I informed him there’s an opportunity to get [Jansen] and another guys we have been speaking about. I used to be simply very candid with him. I wished him to know I wouldn’t pursue it if he didn’t be ok with it.

On a lighter be aware, Anthopoulos additionally said that Jansen would change his signature entry music from “California Love” to “Welcome to Atlanta.”

Smith, who will make $13 million this yr with a $13 million membership choice and $1 million buyout for 2023, saved 37 video games in 43 probabilities in 2021, albeit with a 3.44 ERA, 4.17 FIP and simply 0.4 WAR. He was exceptionally homer-prone, permitting 1.46 dingers per 9, the second-highest price of any pitcher with at the least 20 saves behind Ian Kennedy’s 1.92. However as Anthopoulos famous, he didn’t permit a run within the playoffs, stepping up together with setup man Tyler Matzek. These two will now be a part of the supporting forged forward of Jansen together with the newly-signed Collin McHugh, who inked a one-year, $6 million deal with the Braves after a stellar season with the Rays. The Braves additionally added Kirby Yates, who’s working his means again from a March 2021 Tommy John surgical procedure.

As for the Dodgers, they might flip to Treinen to shut video games. The 33-year-old righty notched seven saves final yr as a part of supervisor Dave Roberts‘ effort to keep away from calling upon Jansen three days in a row. Treinen has 79 saves for his profession, together with 38 with the A’s in 2018. Final yr was his finest since that marketing campaign, as he pitched to a 1.99 ERA and a couple of.88 FIP in 72.1 innings. Daniel Hudson additionally has expertise closing, with 27 profession saves plus 4 extra within the 2019 postseason, together with one in Recreation 7 of the World Sequence because the Nationals clinched their championship. The group might additionally look to amass a more in-depth from exterior the group, with Kimbrel, now in the identical White Sox bullpen as Hendriks and making $16 million himself within the closing yr of a three-year, $43 million deal, one choice — albeit a dear one.

Certainly, if the Dodgers are so as to add an skilled nearer from exterior, they’re going to need to get artistic, because the free agent market doesn’t provide any apparent options; the free brokers with nearer expertise who’re nonetheless obtainable — Greg Holland, Andrew Miller, Sergio Romo, Neftalí Feliz, and Shane Greene, the final two of whom briefly pitched for the Dodgers final yr — are effectively previous their days as ninth-inning stalwarts. The group can be solely about $4.5 million from surpassing the $290 million fourth threshold of the Aggressive Steadiness Tax, the place each greenback above that line is taxed at an 80% price. The wager right here is that the Dodgers will use their appreciable depth to commerce for somebody, although not essentially instantly. With Jansen gone, whoever takes over the ninth inning for the Dodgers may have some fairly huge footwear to fill.