Aaron Nola Is About to Get Very Rich, Somewhere

This offseason’s free company motion is principally over, so let’s go have a look forward at subsequent offseason. The place shortstops dominated the dialog this winter, in 9 months’ time we’ll be speaking about pitchers. Shohei Ohtani is in a category of his personal, clearly, however the market additionally stands to incorporate Yu Darvish, Julio Urías, Blake Snell, Max Scherzer (if he opts out), and Sonny Gray. Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito may additionally each money in big in the event that they rediscover their latest ace-like type.

Additionally sure for the open market: final season’s chief in WAR amongst beginning pitchers. Anybody care to guess who that’s? That’s proper, by a fraction of a win, it’s Aaron Nola. By any customary he’s been among the best pitchers in baseball over the previous 5 years. So how a lot cash ought to he be out to make this offseason?

In 2022, Nola completed fourth in NL Cy Younger voting, which I’d utterly forgotten about regardless of having seen him pitch in individual a number of instances. This was a kind of Cy Younger races the place everybody wrote “Sandy Alcantara” on the high of the poll after which went, “Oh, crap, there are 4 different spots to fill out.” Nonetheless, Nola was excellent:

And it’s not only a one 12 months factor. That is Nola’s second top-five Cy Younger end. He’s been price no less than 2.0 WAR each season since 2016, and no less than 4.0 WAR 4 instances prior to now six seasons, not counting 2020, when he was on a 5.4 WAR tempo had that season gone 162 video games. He’s additionally certified for the ERA title in every of the previous six seasons; Gerrit Cole and Germán Márquez are the one different pitchers who can say the identical.

Final season, Baseball Savant had Nola within the ninetieth percentile or higher in chase charge, HardHit%, and xwOBA. He was within the 99th percentile in stroll charge, eighty fifth in Ok%, and 68th in whiff charge. All through his profession, Nola has struck batters out whereas strolling few and producing weak contact, and he’s carried out it in additional innings than anybody else within the sport over the previous 5 seasons. So why doesn’t he get talked about like a no. 1 starter?

I’ve 4 explanations. First, he’s a right-handed pitcher whose fastball averages 92 to 93 mph in an age when the usual for front-end starters is north of 95. Even with elite command and among the best curveballs within the sport, we intuitively belief finesse pitchers lower than energy pitchers. Second, he’s solely flirted with true ace standing for brief intervals of time. He adopted up a top-three Cy Younger end in 2018 by including a run and a half to his ERA the next season. He additionally posted a 4.63 ERA in 2021.

A few of that’s real inconsistency, or the tendency to get caught in massive innings. This previous postseason was an ideal microcosm: Nola’s first two begins, towards St. Louis and Atlanta, had been masterpieces. His final three, within the NLCS and World Collection, much less so. He nearly dodged bother for a couple of innings at a time however finally opposing hitters caught as much as him.

However he’s additionally spent his whole profession pitching in entrance of horrible defenses, like Rhys Hoskins-in-left-field-type stuff. Nola’s FIP has been higher than his ERA in 5 of his seven full seasons within the majors. In 2021, when Zack Wheeler totally supplanted him because the Phillies’ ace, Nola’s 4.63 ERA dwarfed each his xERA (3.35) and FIP (3.37).

Lastly, Nola’s popularity suffers as a result of he’s neither significantly quotable nor significantly animated on the mound. Even at his most ruthless and methodical, Nola pitches with a fairly clean expression. And since he’s acquired a youthful face and big eyes, it may well come off as deer-in-the-headlights when in actuality that’s simply how he seems to be.

Early within the 2018 common season, I used to be toying with doing a profile on Nola. I by no means ended up reporting the entire thing out, however at any time when somebody who’d performed with Nola got here by Houston, I made some extent to go ask about him. All of them stated the identical factor — good man, arduous employee, very severe. However after I requested if that they had any enjoyable tales to inform, nothing. One former LSU teammate managed to recall a time Nola lower class to go fishing, however that was the very best anybody may do. The overall impact of that is that it’s arduous to imagine that every one these innings, all these strikeouts, got here from the quiet child at the back of the category.

Due to this fact — and that is going to sound deranged, however I 100% stand by it — my recommendation to Nola is that he ought to spend each free second of the season watching tape of Dave Stewart or Madison Bumgarner. Determine find out how to glare. Ask Max Scherzer to show him the very best swear phrases to mutter beneath his breath on the mound. Inform the beat reporters on background that he’s actually gotten into axe throwing within the offseason. If Nola may even come near pulling off a convincing intimidator act, my real heartfelt perception is that it’ll be price someplace between $3 million and $5 million a season in his subsequent contract.

Now, about that contract.

Clearly he’s not going to get what Scherzer acquired from the Mets or Jacob deGrom did from the Rangers. However even what you may name no. 2 starters don’t truly hit the market that often whereas of their prime. I used to be capable of finding 12 pitchers who match the next standards that apply to Nola: First, they signed contracts of no less than $100 million, both as free brokers or lower than a season earlier than reaching free company. Second, these contracts kicked in throughout the pitcher’s age-29 by age-31 seasons. Third, the pitcher had by no means gained a Cy Younger Award. Even narrowing the standards down this far throws up some unsuitable comps — hey, Gerrit Cole — however these are principally Nola’s friends:

And right here’s how they acquired paid:

I do fear that by placing him on a chart that features Strasburg, Sale, Corbin, and Zimmermann, I’ve positioned some form of horrible hex on the remainder of Nola’s profession. If that’s the case, I’m deeply sorry. At any charge, Nola is in line for a contract of both 5 – 6 years in size, price no less than $22 million a 12 months. If the Phillies can get him for something even near what Gausman, Wheeler, and Castillo took, they need to thank their fortunate stars. If something, Nola’s lengthy observe document of consistency, coupled with the latest loosening of purse strings within the free agent market this previous 12 months, ought to have him asking for extra. Six years, $170 million doesn’t appear to be an outrageous ask when in comparison with Rodón, or the contracts Hamels and Cueto signed near a decade in the past.

What occurs if the Phillies balk at that determine? Nicely, there’s the Corbin instance. The one factor a staff can do to reduce the blow of shedding a star free agent is to reinvest that cash in one other place of want. That’s what the Nats did after they let Bryce Harper stroll — they signed Corbin for about the identical AAV, and it labored nice… for one 12 months. Definitely Washington wouldn’t have gained the World Collection with out Corbin.

How does that apply to the Phillies? Nicely, there’s an unlikely however sensible state of affairs by which they will construct a top-notch rotation for 2024 with out Nola. It includes Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, and Ranger Suárez all pitching as much as expectations, and no less than two of Andrew Painter, Griff McGarry, and Mick Abel establishing themselves as playoff rotation-quality beginning pitchers within the coming season. That’s lots of dominoes to knock down, however there’s an apparent path to the Phillies not needing Nola anymore.

Within the occasion of harm, or Wheeler getting previous, or the youngsters needing extra time to develop, that aforementioned free agent class offers a substitute for re-signing Nola. Perhaps somebody like Giolito finally ends up being less expensive, or possibly the Phillies simply find yourself liking one other free agent pitcher higher. As profitable because the open market ought to be for Nola, it may theoretically be equally worthwhile to the Phillies in the event that they let him stroll.

However that’s an infinite threat. From the Phillies’ perspective, it is sensible to get Nola locked down earlier than he hits the open market. Not solely is he a well-liked homegrown participant, the staff’s window couldn’t be any extra open. The Phillies are coming off a pennant, and so they now have seven gamers of their age-30 by age-33 seasons who’re beneath contract for no less than two extra seasons on offers price between $18 million and $27.3 million per 12 months. The Phillies beneath Dave Dombrowski haven’t been the sort to nickel-and-dime their stars, and now isn’t the time to begin. No different staff in baseball, besides possibly the Mets, is in a worse place to promote letting a key participant stroll in an effort to liberate some cash. The one query now’s precisely how a lot Nola stands to make.