A Top 100 Prospects Update

We’re a few month and a half into the minor league season, an inexpensive time for a High 100 replace, albeit one with a comparatively mild contact. The aim of this replace is to pluck the low-hanging fruit, to shine and reshape the record relatively than tear down the one from February. A lot of the nation is chilly or wet in April and early Could, and it may possibly take time for gamers (hitters particularly) to get going. Younger gamers are additionally altering on a regular basis, which frequently consists of changes to their first style of failure.

You possibly can see the up to date record in its entirety here. Beneath, I’ve highlighted some particular person gamers. I contact on how everybody who’s a 60 FV prospect or higher has carried out to this point this 12 months, in addition to which gamers have moved up the record in a significant manner. There are various instances through which the order of the record modified however the participant’s general grade and analysis didn’t. If a pitcher is harm and slid to the again of their FV tier (as with River Ryan, Ricky Tiedemann, Kyle Hurt and Chase Hampton), or if guys are stacked otherwise because of syllogistic reasoning (similar to former back-of-the-list starter Christian Scott racing previous comparable abilities who’re in, say, Double-A), then I don’t handle that particular person transfer.

How Does Every High Prospect Look?

Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles

You’re most likely accustomed to the sequence of Holliday’s 2024. He and your complete Norfolk lineup started the season on a collective tear whereas the Orioles had been getting little manufacturing from second base. Holliday was promoted, hit .059 throughout a two-week huge league trial, was despatched again down, and has solely kind of bounced again. Holliday’s spray chart has shifted away from his pull facet and moved towards left discipline and the third bottom line. For many of the final three weeks following his demotion, he’s been inside-outing a lot of contact the alternative manner, together with pitches on the inside third of the plate that he sometimes activates. He’s swinging with a ton of effort and imprecision proper now. The best way Holliday’s physique unwinds all through his swing continues to be very thrilling and athletic, however he might must make an adjustment that simplifies issues so he might be on time extra persistently. Bryce Harper’s swing is perhaps a superb template. These early hiccups aren’t purpose sufficient to return off of Holliday’s prime prospect analysis.

Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers

Langford went on a god-like Cactus League tear, broke camp as a heart-of-the-order hitter on the defending champions’ Opening Day roster, after which didn’t hit for energy throughout a month of massive league at-bats earlier than he was shelved with a hamstring harm. Langford’s high quality of contact was higher than his surface-level slash line, and the issues that made him the no. 2 general prospect earlier than the season began (big instruments and plate protection) had been nonetheless evident. He hit quite a lot of balls simply shy of the wall in April. I nonetheless anticipate him to be an offensive star upon his return, and doubtless fairly shortly.

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

Wooden, who entered the season as our fifth general prospect, has lower his strikeout price considerably early this 12 months. Getting into the season, it had been up round 30% since he was traded to Washington, nevertheless it’s a rock strong 19.1% to this point in 2024, and Wooden is attending to a lot energy that he has an OPS over 1.000 as of this writing. Wooden’s wrists are remarkably fast and he has unusual bat management for a hitter his measurement. For such an enormous man, the holes in his swing are comparatively small, largely up round his fingers proper now. It’s possible that huge league velocity will sneak previous him extra usually (the typical Triple-A fastball is 91-92 mph to this point in 2024), however the ceiling on Wooden’s energy is as huge as anybody within the minors and he’s rising collective confidence in his means to get to it. His rating on the preseason Top 100 was already very aggressive, however Wooden’s grade has been boosted.

Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

I wrote an extended Skenes replace here. From an FV grade standpoint, his new splitter/sinker and elevated changeup utilization and really feel are significant developments, sufficient for Skenes to maneuver up a FV tier into rarified air for a pitching prospect. Listed below are the pitchers who I’ve ever 65’d or higher: Alex Reyes, Shohei Ohtani, MacKenzie Gore, Eury Pérez, Grayson Rodriguez, and now, Skenes.

Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

It grew to become a digital lock that Chourio would break camp with the massive league group when he signed a contract extension this winter. In his offseason scouting report, I wrote about how the size of Chourio’s swing would possibly make it powerful for him to catch as much as huge league velocity, and that has to this point been the case, as he’s obtained an OPS near .600 towards fastballs 93 mph and above, towards which he mainly has no pull-side airborne contact. He has sufficient energy to be harmful to the alternative discipline and his protection goes to provide his offensive manufacturing fairly a little bit of margin for error, so whereas Chourio isn’t off to a terrific begin, he’s nonetheless an excellent gifted 20-year-old who ought to be an impression participant over time.

Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres

I wrote about Merrill’s transition to heart discipline and its impression on his prospectdom here. In brief, he seems like he’s going to stay on the market and that’s an enormous deal.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

In late March, Lawlar suffered a torn UCL in his thumb that required surgical procedure and, in response to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, was to maintain him out for no less than all of April and Could. Lawlar is rehabbing in Arizona and making frequent cameos at Chase Area.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

Caminero is hitting effectively (he has an OPS north of .900 as a 20-year-old at Triple-A as of this writing) and included on this replace is a extra bullish forecast for his protection. It’s nonetheless believable at his measurement that he’ll finally want to maneuver to the outfield, however for now, what Caminero lacks in fingers he makes up for with a lightning quick trade and plus arm. The issues about his swing that I outlined in his full scouting report are nonetheless current, however he continues to carry out in a superlative manner regardless of them.

Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles

Basallo has a barely below-average wRC+ to this point in 2024, however he’s a 19-year-old catcher at Double-A, in order that’s positive. He seems good behind the plate (his receiving has improved, and his arm continues to be nice), however he’s extra usually taking part in first base and DH’ing than he’s catching. Particularly together with his offense slowing down considerably, I feel it is smart for the Orioles to revisit deal with the catching place. He’s going to have huge energy at maturity and has uncommon ceiling for a catcher, and there isn’t an instantaneous want on offense on the huge league stage. It’s doable this isn’t a sign that the Orioles are successfully transferring on from Basallo as a catcher and as an alternative are simply attempting to protect his physique with a lighter load. If I assumed Bassallo was going to maneuver off of catcher solely, I might slide him into the 55 FV tier of the record, proper across the nook thumpers like org-mate Coby Mayo.

Dylan Crews, CF, Washington Nationals

Right here now we have one other upper-echelon prospect whose pre-existing swing points have been uncovered and are going to drive an adjustment. I wrote in Crews’ Top 100 blurb from the offseason that he’s usually late towards fastballs and actually solely capable of pull softer stuff on the inside third with any type of energy. This has been a problem within the early portion of 2024, as he’s placing out practically 30% of the time whereas attending to sufficient of his energy to be productive anyway. He and the Nationals must discover a manner for him to cowl the inside half of the zone.

Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres

Salas, who turns 18 firstly of June, is struggling to hit at Excessive-A Fort Wayne. It’s widespread for hitters to wrestle in the course of the frigid first month of the Midwest League, and there’s little or no precedent for a prospect this younger being at Excessive-A. Salas continues to be an extremely superior defender for his age and he can transfer the barrel across the zone. He isn’t making flush contact proper now and he’s swinging by a ton of excessive fastballs, however he’s additionally making contact with a lot of them. It’s too early to maneuver off him in any respect.

Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Painter entered 2023 spring coaching wanting like he would possibly break camp within the Phillies rotation and provides the then-defending NL champs one other high-end starter. He started to have elbow points earlier than the common season and the Phillies took a comparatively conservative strategy to his rehab within the hopes he’d reply to a PRP injection and have the ability to pitch sooner or later final 12 months. It didn’t work and he had TJ at a time that can possible value him all of 2024. He appeared like a possible top-of-the-rotation starter on the finish of 2022.

Transferring Up

Xavier Isaac, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

Issac’s rotational explosion for a hitter his measurement may be very particular, and whereas he’s going to swing and miss at an elevated price, he additionally has ridiculous energy everywhere in the strike zone. He’s drastically overhauled his conditioning since he was drafted and appears like a future middle-of-the-order anchor. He has a 150 wRC+ at Excessive-A Bowling Inexperienced as of this replace, and by way of hard-hit price and peak exit velocities, Isaac is performing on the very prime of the dimensions. Should you’re in a dynasty league or acquire prospect’s playing cards, you might want to get this man now, as a result of if he continues on this tempo towards Double-A pitching within the second half of the 12 months, he’s going to complete the season as a prime 5 or 10 general prospect. Tip of the hat to the Rays, who drafted Isaac although he wasn’t a well-known showcase prospect. The choose was initially met with confusion, even derision, however just like the Evan Carter Rangers choose, it seems prefer it’s going to have a significant impression on this franchise although Isaac continues to be obscure sufficient that the picture service we use for header artwork doesn’t actually have a image of him in its database but.

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Crimson Sox

Talking of adjustments in conditioning, Mayer seems extra svelte than final 12 months, his vary on protection is healthier, and he’s modified the way in which he throws, now eliminating the baseball as shortly as doable even when it means throwing three- and four-hoppers to first base. I’m nonetheless apprehensive about his means to contact comfortable stuff within the backside of the strike zone, however he’s raised his possibilities of staying at quick. His FV grade hasn’t modified, however he’s moved up sufficient that I wished to say it.

Transferring In

Aidan Miller, SS/3B, Philadelphia Phillies

It’s positively vital to maintain Miller’s efficiency in context. He was an older highschool choose and he’s nearly to show 20, which is a little bit outdated for Low-A. He additionally shares swing parts that make me scared of eventual swing-and-miss, which you’ll examine in his report. However to this point, none of these points have manifested in Clearwater, Miller has a 90% in-zone contact price, and he isn’t exhibiting any vulnerability to fastballs on the prime of the zone. You can too watch Miller swing and be reminded of Nico Hoerner, and it’s believable Miller might find yourself with an identical profile, albeit one with extra energy.

Josue De Paula, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

De Paula was unnoticed of the High 100 in the course of the offseason as a result of I wished to see him really hit for energy (he’s a nook defender, in spite of everything), which has began to occur. He didn’t have a house run till just a few days earlier than this replace, however his underlying exit velos have been sensational. His 94 mph common exit velo to this point this season is elite, up eight ticks from final 12 months, whereas his 114 mph max is up 4.

Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

One other man who remade his physique in the course of the offseason, Pages had season-ending shoulder surgical procedure in 2023 and got here again this 12 months with a very totally different physique and stage of athleticism. He’s swinging with extra athletic verve than ever earlier than (he was a High 100 man earlier than his harm), and it raises the ceiling on his protection to have higher pace.

Cade Povich, LHP, Baltimore Orioles

Povich was left off the offseason High 100 as a result of I assumed that at his stage of velocity, he’d want higher command than he has for his fastball to play. He appears to have leveled up on this regard and is having a greater go of Triple-A than he did final 12 months.

Others Who Obtained Consideration

Owen Murphy, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Murphy was a Pick to Click and he’s off to a improbable begin at Excessive-A Rome, however he hasn’t but proven a persistently good slider. His vertical fastball and curveball combo may be very promising by itself, and Murphy’s arm motion is the type usually well-suited for changeup improvement, however he and the Braves appear centered on growing that slider proper now, and it’s nonetheless solely okay.

Jacob Melton, OF, Houston Astros

Melton’s swinging strike price is surprisingly low contemplating what I anticipated of him popping out of Oregon State. His head continues to be flying round so much all through his swing and he tends to spray quite a lot of contact to the alternative discipline. I’m simply not snug projecting that that is the offensive talent set of an on a regular basis outfielder.

Joey Loperfido, 1B, Houston Astros

Lopefrido was on a homer-hitting tear at Triple-A Sugarland previous to his huge league promotion, however he was additionally placing out 30% of the time. Final record cycle’s grade nonetheless feels sufficiently excessive on him. He’s a positive nook position participant greater than he’s a real on a regular basis participant.

Lazaro Montes, OF, Seattle Mariners

Montes is a big outfield prospect who has a ridiculous Cal League slash line to this point this 12 months. Surprisingly, his hard-hit price has been a comparatively modest 30% to this point, whereas his contact charges (in-zone and out) are hovering within the 70-74% vary, which is comfortably under the massive league common. There’s certainly huge power-hitting ceiling right here, however I’m not snug projecting the long-term offensive success wanted for him to be an impression participant on the positions Montes will have the ability to play.

Brandon Young, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Younger has had a little bit velocity bump and has been completely dominant at Double-A Bowie. His fastball has at all times had huge vertical break, however now it’s extra usually 93-94 mph, up from 91-92. He has a well-defined four-pitch combine and plus command, although solely his changeup is producing a plus price of swing-and-miss and Younger locates that pitch within the zone way more usually than is typical of an enormous league pitcher. He’s a near-ready starter however let’s see him maintain the velo bump all 12 months earlier than contemplating him a mid-rotation prospect.

Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF, Minnesota Twins

As we strategy work on the Twins record from prime to backside, we checked on Keaschall, who has accomplished nothing however rake since coming into professional ball, albeit in a comparatively small pattern. He’s proven really feel for the zone, bat management, and modest energy. Keaschall has by no means been an excellent infield defender and the Twins have been experimenting with him in heart discipline. He’s very a lot nonetheless studying to play on the market.

Rubel Cespedes, 3B, Minnesota Twins

Cespedes is a possible plus third base defender with a 70 arm, able to hosing guys from deep within the nook. His swing is just like Cam Collier’s and draft prospect Bryce Rainer’s — there’s huge bat pace and low-ball raise however actual vulnerability on the prime of the strike zone.