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With only some hours to go earlier than the outcomes of the BBWAA’s 2023 Corridor of Fame balloting are introduced, the widespread assumption is that the voters will pitch their second shutout in three years and their fifth since voters returned to annual balloting in 1966. Not solely is there no slam-dunk candidate with the milestones and squeaky-clean status that portends a first-ballot election, or a returning candidate who’s the equal of a gimme putt away from 75%, however the highest share of the vote from among the many 201 ballots published (simply over half of the anticipated complete) exhibits no candidate receiving greater than 80.1%. On condition that voters who don’t publish their ballots forward of the bulletins are usually extra conservative when filling them out, at finest we’ve bought a nail-biter forward of us for the highest two candidates. As of Monday night, Jason Sardell, the highest prognosticator for election outcomes for 3 years operating, forecast solely a few 13% likelihood of a candidate being elected. He hasn’t up to date the percentages within the 21 hours since, which has added simply 18 ballots to the pile, however I imagine these will suffice:
Simply over 24 hours to go till the Baseball Corridor of Fame reveal, and this is the place we’re with 183 ballots in @NotMrTibbs‘s tracker. At this time has been a nasty day for Scott Rolen, however Todd Helton continues to slowly climb. pic.twitter.com/xRpCjZR3BL
— Jason Sardell (@sarsdell) January 23, 2023
In case you’re on the lookout for a glimmer of hope for Scott Rolen and Todd Helton, I do have one. Right here’s a desk exhibiting all the candidates who’ve obtained no less than 70% by way of the pre-announcement ballots since 2014 (“The Tracker Period”):
Pre-Election Printed Ballots vs. Ultimate Outcomes Since 2014
| Participant | Yr | Public Pre | Elected | % of Ballots | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 2016 | 100.0% | YES | 99.3% | -0.7% |
| Mariano Rivera | 2019 | 100.0% | YES | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Derek Jeter | 2020 | 100.0% | YES | 99.7% | -0.3% |
| Greg Maddux | 2014 | 99.5% | YES | 97.2% | -2.3% |
| Randy Johnson | 2015 | 98.5% | YES | 97.3% | -1.2% |
| Chipper Jones | 2018 | 98.4% | YES | 97.2% | -1.2% |
| Pedro Martinez | 2015 | 98.0% | YES | 91.1% | -6.9% |
| Tom Glavine | 2014 | 95.3% | YES | 91.9% | -3.4% |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 2018 | 94.8% | YES | 92.9% | -1.9% |
| Jim Thome | 2018 | 93.1% | YES | 89.8% | -3.3% |
| Roy Halladay | 2019 | 92.2% | YES | 85.4% | -6.8% |
| Frank Thomas | 2014 | 90.1% | YES | 83.7% | -6.4% |
| Edgar Martinez | 2019 | 89.7% | YES | 85.4% | -4.3% |
| Tim Raines | 2017 | 88.8% | YES | 86.0% | -2.8% |
| Jeff Bagwell | 2017 | 87.6% | YES | 86.2% | -1.4% |
| John Smoltz | 2015 | 87.1% | YES | 82.9% | -4.2% |
| Mike Piazza | 2016 | 86.3% | YES | 83.0% | -3.3% |
| Craig Biggio | 2015 | 84.2% | YES | 82.7% | -1.5% |
| David Ortiz | 2022 | 83.4% | YES | 77.9% | -5.5% |
| Larry Walker | 2020 | 83.2% | YES | 76.6% | -6.6% |
| Mike Mussina | 2019 | 81.5% | YES | 76.7% | -4.8% |
| Scott Rolen | 2023 | 80.1% | ? | ? | ? |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 2017 | 79.5% | YES | 76.0% | -3.5% |
| Todd Helton | 2023 | 78.6% | ? | ? | ? |
| Trevor Hoffman | 2018 | 78.2% | YES | 79.9% | 1.7% |
| Craig Biggio | 2014 | 78.0% | NO | 74.8% | -3.2% |
| Jeff Bagwell | 2016 | 77.7% | NO | 71.6% | -6.1% |
| Barry Bonds | 2022 | 77.6% | NO | 66.0% | -11.6% |
| Edgar Martinez | 2018 | 77.4% | NO | 70.4% | -7.0% |
| Curt Schilling | 2020 | 77.3% | NO | 70.0% | -7.3% |
| Mike Piazza | 2015 | 76.2% | NO | 69.9% | -6.3% |
| Roger Clemens | 2022 | 76.1% | NO | 65.2% | -10.9% |
| Tim Raines | 2016 | 75.4% | NO | 69.8% | -5.6% |
| Curt Schilling | 2021 | 74.1% | NO | 71.1% | -3.0% |
| Barry Bonds | 2021 | 73.7% | NO | 61.8% | -11.9% |
| Roger Clemens | 2021 | 73.2% | NO | 61.6% | -11.6% |
| Trevor Hoffman | 2017 | 72.7% | NO | 74.0% | 1.3% |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 2017 | 72.3% | NO | 71.7% | -0.6% |
| Scot Rolen | 2022 | 71.2% | NO | 63.2% | -8.0% |
| Barry Bonds | 2020 | 70.9% | NO | 60.7% | -10.2% |
| Barry Bonds | 2019 | 70.7% | NO | 59.1% | -11.6% |
| Roger Clemens | 2019 | 70.7% | NO | 59.5% | -11.2% |
| Mike Mussina | 2018 | 70.2% | NO | 63.5% | -6.7% |
| Roger Clemens | 2020 | 70.0% | NO | 61.0% | -9.0% |
2023 percentages based mostly upon 199 ballots printed.
As I famous in my election day preview, of the 14 candidates who obtained 75% to 85% by way of ballots printed previous to the outcomes, the common differential between these shares and their closing outcomes was a drop of 5.6% general, and 4.4% when you exclude Bonds/Clemens/Schilling, whose baggage created a resistance to their candidacies that doesn’t apply to any of the others right here.
Whereas on the one hand simply two out of 10 cases by which a candidate obtained lower than 80% resulted in his election that 12 months, the information has been constant, in that everyone receiving 78.2% or greater has in reality ended up throughout the end line. Sardell’s forecasting, which teams voters based mostly upon the variety of candidates they embody and their electoral stance on PED customers, is definitely extra subtle than this quick-and-dirty desk. However as we depend all the way down to the announcement, we no less than know that there’s one thing to be mentioned about the potential for Fred McGriff having firm in Cooperstown on July 23.
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