A case for the Minnesota Vikings, the worst Super Bowl contender ever | Minnesota Vikings

The default expectation for the Minnesota Vikings is that, someway and to various levels, the season will finish in disappointment.

That fatalism has been nurtured over a number of many years of playoff pratfalls. The Vikings appeared in 4 Tremendous Bowls throughout the Nineteen Seventies, misplaced every one and haven’t been again since. Within the final 25 years, they’ve made it to 4 NFC championship video games, two of which resulted in humiliating blowouts and two that rank among the many most heartbreaking postseason losses ever. It’s a franchise congenitally disposed to choking, with a litany of agonizing miscues acknowledged by their shorthand: Roger Staubach’s Hail Mary; Darrin Nelson’s drop; Gary Anderson’s miss; Brett Favre’s pick; Blair Walsh’s shank.

The Vikings, precedent dictates, will discover a novel strategy to blow it; to imagine in any other case is to disclaim historical past and probably cosmic affect.

All of which makes the 2022 Minnesota Vikings so decidedly un-Vikings, a mold-breaking band of misfits who can’t cease discovering new – and more and more weird – methods to win. This yr’s Vikes stand at 12-3 after their last-second Christmas Eve win over the New York Giants, yet one more thriller in a season crammed with high-wire acts. Eight of these wins have come through fourth–quarter comebacks, together with 4 that required erasing double-digit deficits within the remaining interval. They’ve gained two of probably the most madcap common season video games ever: an upset over the Tremendous Bowl-favorite Buffalo Payments in November that was gifted by a Josh Allen fumble ultimately zone, and a record-setting 33-point comeback win earlier this month in opposition to the Indianapolis Colts. All however one in every of their wins have come by a single rating. The celebrities seem to have aligned for this star-crossed franchise.

The default expectation, nevertheless, stays the identical. Minnesota could boast a report befitting a Tremendous Bowl contender, however few truly regard them as one. Different groups pressure to seek out bulletin board materials – newspaper clippings and speak radio sound bites to gas the notion that no person believes in them – however this yr’s Vikings staff by no means has to look far for such slights. Sources of skepticism are plentiful, they usually often take the type of chilly knowledge relatively than scorching takes. The protection ranks second-to-last within the league, whereas their offense has been outgained by opponents to the tune of 620 yards. Their paltry plus-five level differential says that they’re the worst 12-3 staff ever.

Oddsmakers have made it clear all season that they aren’t satisfied, persistently treating the Vikes like a middling staff relatively than a possible No 2 seed. Earlier this month, they grew to become the primary staff in additional than 50 years to be at the least eight video games over .500 and nonetheless be an underdog in opposition to an opponent with a shedding report. The sharps have been vindicated after the favored Detroit Lions, on the time 5-7, handed the Vikings their third lack of the season. Minnesota’s different two losses – a Week 2 humbling in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles and a 40-3 embarrassment final month by the hands of the Dallas Cowboys – have solely cemented the idea that they’re firmly under the league’s higher crust.

In the event that they aren’t legit contenders, this yr’s Vikings are at the least a historic anomaly, one which has confounded followers and soccer wonks alike.

“There’s by no means been something like this,” mentioned Aaron Schatz, the editor-in-chief of the analytics web site Soccer Outsiders. “There’s by no means been a staff that has gained 11 one-possession video games in a season, not to mention gone 11-0 in these video games. It’s by no means occurred earlier than.”

Soccer Outsiders charges all 32 groups within the NFL utilizing a method referred to as Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA) that compares their efficiency on each play to the league common, whereas additionally considering scenario and opponents. The Vikings at the moment rank twenty fifth in DVOA, placing them within the firm of dismal groups just like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders.

After 10 video games, the Vikings stood because the worst 8-2 staff ever, according to DVOA, and because the wins have piled up, so too have the doubtful superlatives. Schatz mentioned that they grew to become the worst 11-3 staff of all time “by so much” following their epic comeback over the Colts and now they’ve the excellence of being the least spectacular staff to notch a 12-3 mark.

Schatz mentioned the superior stats recommend the Vikings have been way more fortunate than they’ve been good. Based on Pythagorean wins, which approximates what number of video games a staff ought to win primarily based on factors scored and allowed, the Vikings have 4 extra victories than anticipated.

“By Pythagorean wins, the Vikings are the luckiest staff of all time,” Schatz mentioned. “There’s by no means been a staff that was under common at 12-3 earlier than.

After I requested if there was something past the win and loss report which may give hope to Vikings followers like me, Schatz famous that they’re among the many least penalized groups within the league. And he pointed to the efficiency of all-universe huge receiver Justin Jefferson, who’s the favourite to win offensive participant of the yr.

The rest?

“No,” he mentioned.

Properly, if nobody else goes to make a case, permit me to provide it a go.

In lieu of empirical knowledge, the case for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings rests on vibes and momentum – immeasurable attributes which might be sometimes dismissed by the analytics neighborhood. However when a staff doesn’t make sense, when the outcomes persistently defy expectations and when there isn’t a satisfactory metric to clarify its success, the one recourse is to wade into the realm of gut-feelings and superstition.

This yr’s Vikings staff has run on adrenaline and camaraderie, with first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell cultivating a feel-good tradition that has offered a balm to followers’ snakebites. The gamers have embraced the oft-maligned Kirk Cousins, draping him in chains after wins and turning the maladroit quarterback right into a lovable dork. The character of their outcomes invite otherworldly explanations. If an ill-fated franchise finest recognized for nauseating losses have been to instantly flip the script and make a clear break from its cursed historical past, wouldn’t it look a bit like this?

No, there’s nothing logical about this case, however then, there was nothing logical about this yr’s Vikings. Earlier iterations have appeared like a a lot stronger menace to go all the way in which. In 1998, Minnesota went 15-1 and set a brand new scoring report due to an electrifying rookie marketing campaign from Randy Moss, solely to fall a sport wanting the Tremendous Bowl after Anderson’s notorious miss. The 2017 Vikings boasted a dominant protection and appeared to have the kiss of future following the Minneapolis Miracle, however their run ended after they have been stomped by Nick Foles and the Eagles.

Each of these Vikings groups have been favored within the NFC championship sport, which seemingly gained’t be the case ought to they make it that far this time round. However possibly the Vikes have been by no means meant to be frontrunners. Possibly the actually elite Vikings squads of earlier seasons have been out of character, whereas this yr’s scrappy bunch is extra consistent with a franchise typified by weirdness and flukes.

Possibly the Vikings have been at all times meant to win all of it with the worst Tremendous Bowl staff ever.