Mets Hope for Manaea Happy Returns

For the final two offseasons, the Mets have operated with shock and awe, signing each free agent that wasn’t nailed down en path to constructing a staff that might commerce blows with the Braves atop the NL East. As you might have heard, that didn’t precisely pan out. So this offseason, they’re taking a brand new tack with a string of fascinating signings that play under the highest of the market. That pattern continued over the weekend, when the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a two-year, $28 million deal, as Jon Heyman first reported.

As Kyle Kishimoto famous in our free agent preview, Manaea spent 2023 swinging wildly between roles for a Giants staff that wanted pitching assist far and wide. He was a starter, lengthy reliever, setup man, regardless of the scenario demanded. He carried out adequately in that robust job, however when he opted out of his contract after the season, it appeared probably that he’d search for a full-time beginning spot. That’s the place he’ll slot in on the Mets, who’ve spent the offseason remaking a rotation that had a number of holes to fill after 2023’s commerce spree.

Manaea is a tough pitcher to pin down. He’s a sinker-dominant lefty – solely perhaps it’s a four-seamer, or a minimum of it behaves loads like one if it’s not. More and more, he makes use of that pitch, which has extra arm-side motion than trip, to overlook bats and complement his slider and changeup. He’s a soft-tosser – solely he added a couple of ticks of velocity in 2023. That wasn’t a fluke of his utilization, both; he averaged 93.4 mph as a starter and 93.6 mph as a reliever after sitting 89-91 for the final half decade.

It will get weirder than that. His slider and changeup don’t actually appear like good out pitches. Stuff+ and PitchingBot metrics agree that each are barely below-average in stuff, although they each agree that he instructions them effectively. So he’s a command-first man – besides he points walks and data strikeouts at higher-than-league-average charges. His changeup has traditionally been his greatest pitch – solely it seemed a lot worse in 2023, with a 9% swinging strike price, whilst his total outcomes improved. His slider is an odd one, too; it’s a gradual gyro providing that ties batters in knots after they swing, however doesn’t induce a ton of chases.

Put one other means: Sean Manaea is an enigma. I’m nearly sure that he’s pitcher, however I’d wrestle to elucidate precisely why. He’s constantly delivered innings-eater kind outcomes, however the best way he does it has modified over time. His changeup is his greatest pitch by way of outcomes – however he’s been far worse towards righties than lefties. And final 12 months’s knowledge is confused by that hybrid position. Projection methods suppose he’s someplace round league common, however they’re in no way positive of what his position might be, which makes that projection far more tenuous.

In some methods, that uncertainty fits the Mets. In the event you take them at face worth, and I believe it is best to on this case, they’re attempting to construct a long-term juggernaut, the type of staff that yearly tries to win 95-100 video games. It’s actually laborious to inhabit that house with out a pitching workers that’s lengthy on above-average arms. The Braves managed it final 12 months, however that was with an historic offense, and so they’ve spent the offseason attempting to make sure that they’ve a extra strong rotation going ahead. So, too, have the Dodgers. It’s loads simpler to win a bundle of video games in case you have a minimum of three superb starters and a giant group of acceptable pitchers behind them.

What I like about Manaea on the Mets is that he would possibly match into both of these two teams. I believe {that a} mid-3.00s ERA season is totally in vary for him; he has a number of instruments that might add as much as a extremely stable pitcher. However as a result of that end result is way from sure, he comes at a relative cut price price; $14 million is kind of Lance Lynn cash, however I believe the excessive finish of Manaea’s vary of outcomes is comfortably higher than that. If he’s nice, plug him into the highest half of your rotation. If he’s extra of a fifth starter kind or will get crushed out by 5 different starters, these are each roles he’s aware of. Signal three guys like Manaea, and also you would possibly find yourself with one plus starter and two stable swingmen. I believe it’s a clever technique to take dangers like that while you’re attempting to construct a strong pitching group.

Solely, perhaps to not take dangers like this? The contract isn’t a straight two-year pact; it comes with an opt-out after the 2024 season. And that flips the danger round meaningfully. If Manaea has a powerful season as a starter, he’ll definitely choose out; once more, one 12 months and $14 million is back-end starter cash lately, and he’d get greater than that coming off of season. If he lands within the backside a part of his vary of outcomes, he’ll keep, however not as a difference-maker.

That makes this contract a bizarre slot in my eyes. It quantities to sacrificing some worth in 2025 – both Manaea might be gone while you wished him, or there when his 2024 season was disappointing – in change for price in 2024. That doesn’t actually match with how I count on the Mets to function; I’d count on them to be shopping for optionality by way of staff choices quite than promoting it by way of opt-outs. Put one other means, I believe that Manaea’s unstable profile fits their wants, however his contract implies that the volatility will nearly by no means play out of their favor in 2025.

To some extent, that is most likely a lot ado about nothing. If Manaea is superior in 2024 and needs to choose out, the Mets can all the time work out an extension; if he’s nice, he’ll presumably be predisposed to stick with the staff. Possibly that finally ends up costing them just a little extra, however you possibly can consider this 12 months as an audition. I’m fairly assured that the Mets will want loads of pitching assist in free company in coming years; their rebuilt farm system is heavy on place gamers and lightweight on influence arms.

Put one other means, the Mets really want to check out a number of guys like Manaea. If this deal is what it took to get him within the door, so be it. This contract isn’t going to restrict their payroll flexibility or make them unable to compete for future expertise, however not having sufficient playable beginning pitching may be the distinction between a repeat of 2023 and a playoff berth. The staff has loads of expertise – we predict they’ve a top-10 place participant group and common pitching – however depth is certainly a priority.

Possibly that, then, is the lesson of this deal. Pitchers with Manaea’s normal profile are in demand, as a result of groups each must fill a number of beginning innings within the common season and need to gather a gaggle of three or 4 fascinating starters and hope certainly one of them turns right into a playoff-caliber starter. I’d guess on a minimum of certainly one of Manaea, Luis Severino, or Adrian Houser delivering a terrific 2024, one that will give the Mets a minimum of three first rate choices in a playoff collection. I like that guess much more with three pitchers to select from than two; in different phrases, the Severino and Houser acquisitions would really feel incomplete with out extra pitchers of that normal tier.

If these pitchers are in demand, groups need to compete for his or her providers. And Manaea’s big selection of outcomes is a two-way road; he himself is definitely conscious of it. Put two and two collectively – a number of groups need his providers, and he is aware of that 2024 will do loads to have an effect on his future earnings potential – and it makes a number of sense that he’d ask for an opt-out to separate the staff that almost all needs his providers from the remainder of the pack. It’s all effectively and good to say that it’s unusual staff habits to present high-risk, high-reward pitchers the prospect to choose out of their offers, however it’s completely probably that with out that choose out, the Mets wouldn’t have been in a position to signal Manaea within the first place.

Let’s go away it at that: This appears like a deal that either side get one thing out of. The Mets appear like contenders in 2024, and this signing helps cement that. Manaea will get the beginning position he absolutely coveted, and in addition will get an opportunity to re-engage with free company subsequent winter if he’s pretty much as good as he hopes. This appears like a good deal to me, in essentially the most optimistic sense of the time period.