Jay Jaffe’s 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the software above; an introduction to JAWS could be discovered here. For a tentative schedule and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing undertaking, see here. All WAR figures consult with the Baseball-Reference model until in any other case indicated.

“What if I voted for Bartolo Colon?” The thought crossed my thoughts on multiple event as I counted the variety of candidates I supposed to vote for on my 2024 Corridor of Fame poll on my fingers. Final yr, I solely voted for seven, which felt uncharacteristically stingy given the historical past of my advocacy. Within the weeks and days main as much as my placing pen to paper, this time I had 9 in thoughts. Why not prime it off to a pleasant spherical quantity?

I’ll take you thru my course of in answering this urgent query quickly sufficient. That is my fourth yr with an precise poll, however filling one out hardly seems like previous hat, even with 23 years of analyzing Corridor of Fame elections below my belt, and 21 years of doing so whereas armed with the system that grew to become JAWS (the official twentieth anniversary of the metric’s introduction is subsequent week). Whereas so many mentors, friends, and colleagues have come and gone on this racket, I’m grateful to have caught round lengthy sufficient to have earned the fitting to vote, and it’s a privilege I stay up for, even with the heightened scrutiny that comes with it.

Within the weeks for the reason that Corridor unveiled this yr’s 26-candidate slate, I’ve analyzed the highest 19 candidates at size in my collection. I’ve nonetheless obtained seven one-and-done stragglers to cowl in early January, none of whom are in critical consideration for area on my poll; certainly, none of these seven has secured a single vote from among the many 62 ballots revealed within the Ballot Tracker as of 9 AM ET Friday, however their careers deserve a correct valedictory. Whereas I’ve principally recognized whom I deliberate to incorporate, I went by means of my full course of earlier than finalizing its contents, simply as I did with my digital ballots. Notably given my latest makes an attempt to replace the pitching aspect of JAWS, it by no means hurts to take one other look.

With simply 4 candidates elected by the writers over the previous 4 cycles, and two over the previous three, we’ve obtained a backlog of candidates inside vary of election to go along with a robust crop of newcomers, although it’s nowhere close to as crowded as earlier than. Circa 2014, the poll had 14 gamers who met or exceeded the JAWS requirements at their respective positions, and 17 who had a JAWS of no less than 50.0 (or 40.0 for catchers), thus requiring all however probably the most small-Corridor-minded voters to carry out some type of triage to be able to winnow the sphere all the way down to 10 candidates who might match on their ballots. This time round there are 5 candidates who meet or exceed the JAWS requirements at their positions, two extra who’re inside some extent, and 9 who’re at 50.0 (or 40.0 for catchers). These are the identical totals as from the 2021 shutout; final yr there have been 4 of the previous and 7 of the latter.

Even with these numbers diminished relative to their latest peak, there’s nonetheless no such factor as an ideal poll. With my annual train has all the time come an acknowledgement of the quite a few subjective selections that go into deciding on even probably the most objective-minded slate. How a lot leeway to grant if one is utilizing WAR and JAWS? How a lot emphasis to placed on postseason efficiency, awards, and fewer quantifiable issues? The place to attract the road through performance-enhancing medication or off-field points, topics which will or might not fall below the umbrella of the character clause? Perfection could also be unattainable, nevertheless it’s nonetheless price pursuing. If we don’t get there… nicely, we do the very best we are able to.

With that ample preamble out of the best way, right here’s how the aforementioned 19 candidates stack up through JAWS:

As famous, I’ve used my experimental, workload-adjusted S-JAWS for beginning pitchers (detailed here), which brings the above starters nearer to the usual however nonetheless leaves the very best of them, Buehrle and Pettitte, greater than 9 factors off the tempo. Likewise, I’ve used my experimental, leverage-adjusted R-JAWS for aid pitchers (defined here), and whereas that doesn’t push Wagner previous the usual, it makes him the highest reliever outdoors the Corridor.

Of this yr’s 5 candidates who meet or exceed the JAWS requirements at their place, three prime the profession WAR and peak WAR requirements as nicely, whereas the opposite two prime one or the opposite however not each. Two extra prime solely the height commonplace. The tallies are represented within the “Requirements” column within the desk above, with the yellow cells highlighting the actual requirements met. Amongst those that don’t meet any requirements are 4 different gamers I classify as “candidates of curiosity,” specifically Beltrán, Wagner, Abreu, and Sheffield, gamers who fall shy on JAWS however about whom I stay open-minded, for causes defined under. That’s 11 for a first-cut listing, which suggests I’ve obtained a bit of labor to do.

Earlier than I’m going deeper, it’s price mentioning the “integrity, sportsmanship, [and] character” part of the voting rules. Till Mark McGwire landed on the 2007 poll, that clause was by no means actually used to exclude anybody; in the meantime, the varied electoral our bodies have admitted a parade of spitballers, sign-stealers, racists, cheaters, and abusers. The clause was the brainchild of Kenesaw Mountain Landis, who brimmed with such integrity that he spent his whole 24-year time period as commissioner upholding the sport’s shameful shade line. The historical past of that hypocrisy and so many others — witness the election of Bud Selig, himself steeped within the collusion of the Nineteen Eighties in addition to the overseeing of the so-called Steroid Period — leads me to keep away from placing any inventory within the clause, which isn’t to say that I don’t have my very own methods of coping with the darker features of gamers’ candidacies.

As I’ve mentioned repeatedly all through this collection and for over a decade, relating to candidates linked to performance-enhancing medication, I draw a line between these whose allegations date to the time when the sport had no testing routine or technique of punishment (i.e., previous to 2004) and those who got here afterwards. With no technique of implementing a paper ban, and with gamers flouting such a ban being rewarded left and proper amid what was really an entire institutional failure that implicated house owners, the commissioner, and the gamers union in addition to the gamers, I merely don’t suppose voters can apply a retroactive morality to that interval.

That retains Sheffield within the clear on that entrance, nevertheless it additionally means I’ve crossed Ramirez and Rodriguez off my listing. On a performance-only foundation, each would get my vote, and likewise if their failing the supposedly nameless 2003 survey check had been their solely PED-related transgression. A-Rod is one among seven gamers with no less than 3,000 hits and 500 homers, and he ranks twelfth in WAR amongst all place gamers, however his full-season suspension for utilizing PEDs purchased from the Biogenesis clinic from 2010–12 is a black mark I can’t overlook. Likewise almost about Manny. He’s one of many biggest hitters of all time; his 154 OPS+ ranks twentieth amongst gamers with no less than 7,000 PA, however I nonetheless can’t get previous the 2 failed checks, not when higher gamers who by no means examined optimistic are being stored out. Yearly, I take into account whether or not it’s time to take a brand new method with such candidates, however this isn’t the yr I’m altering my thoughts.

Notice that I’ve not used allegations of home violence to disqualify candidates from consideration, although such issues are way more critical than PEDs. I can definitely perceive voters selecting to rule such candidates out.

As for who’s on my poll, every of the bolded names under hyperlinks to their profiles the place I’m going into a lot higher element than I can right here. For the gamers which have gone unmentioned, likewise you may examine my reservations inside their profiles linked within the navigation bar above.

To start, three newcomers get my nod:

Adrían Beltré (4th amongst third basemen in JAWS)

The alternatives don’t get any simpler than this. Beltré’s 3,166 hits and 477 homers give him the normal numbers for a waltz into Cooperstown, and his quantity two rating in fielding runs (216) on the scorching nook and quantity 4 rating in JAWS are equally spectacular relating to the superior statistics. It’s outstanding that when he left Seattle after the 2009 season, Beltré had by no means made an All-Star crew, and even now each his 4 ASG alternatives and 5 Gold Gloves really feel a bit gentle for a Corridor of Famer. Had defensive metrics and WAR(P) been extra broadly circulated throughout his keep in Seattle, these numbers would each have been greater; he had ranked amongst his league’s prime 10 in WAR thrice by the point of his so-called “pillow contract” in Boston. His transfer to extra hitter-friendly environments and maturation as a hitter definitely modified perceptions of his expertise, and social media raised his profile as nicely, notably throughout his run with the Rangers, when he grew to become one of many recreation’s hottest gamers. He’s been left off of simply two out of 73 ballots so far within the Tracker, and I doubt we’ll get too many extra.

Joe Mauer (seventh amongst catchers in JAWS)

He’s the hometown success story and primary total decide who lived as much as his billing. Mauer spent his whole profession with the Twins whereas making six All-Star groups, successful three Gold Gloves and three batting titles (the one catcher who can declare that) in addition to an MVP award. He was pressured to cease catching resulting from post-concussion issues and spent the final 5 seasons of his profession as a roughly league common first baseman, however even with that handicap, and with simply 921 video games caught, his seven-year peak — all from his years behind the plate — ranks fifth, behind solely Gary Carter, Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, and Ivan Rodriguez. That doesn’t even account for the truth that he was an above-average pitch framer as nicely; that is an all-time nice.

Sadly, BBWAA voters haven’t handled catchers very nicely, electing simply two to the Corridor of their first yr of eligibility (Bench and Rodriguez) and embarrassing themselves when it got here to the candidacies of Carter, Piazza, Yogi Berra and some others. We’ll need to see what occurs with Mauer, who’s polling at 80.8% within the Poll Tracker. There’s little doubt he’ll be in Cooperstown quickly, however I dearly hope it’s this yr.

Chase Utley (twelfth amongst second basemen in JAWS)

Regardless of not drawing greater than 300 plate appearances in a season till age 26, Utley is simply 0.1 factors shy of the JAWS commonplace at they keystone, and ninth in peak as nicely because of the super affect of his fielding and baserunning, which mirrored his excessive baseball IQ. Alas voters’ failure to acknowledge him within the MVP races and Gold Glove awards — he was bypassed in favor of teammates Rollins and Ryan Howard within the former and someway by no means gained the latter — make it obvious that he’s going through an uphill battle for election. What’s extra, he completed with simply 1,885 hits, and even with the Period Committee election of Tony Oliva, the writers have but to elect anyone from the post-1960 growth period who completed with fewer than 2,000.

I’m hopeful that with an citizens subtle sufficient to not depend on conventional profession totals as the only yardstick, Utley will obtain substantial help and finally get his plaque. I’m bracing for a meager first-year share; within the Poll Tracker crew’s VIP poll, I estimated Utley with a first-year exhibiting of 17% (and Mauer at 62%), although proper now he’s at 46.6% within the Tracker. That may be a strong begin, no less than.

Transferring on, these guys have been on my previous three ballots and no less than two digital ballots. They’re simple calls to return:

Todd Helton (fifteenth amongst first basemen in JAWS, 72.2% in 2023)

The 2020 election of former teammate Larry Walker opened up the highway to Cooperstown for this denizen of Coors Discipline. An distinctive hitter who served because the face of the Rockies franchise, Helton put up very massive numbers within the first half of his profession, numbers that maintain up as soon as we modify for his park and league scoring atmosphere. Accidents induced him to fade away, as he had only one good season out of his final 4, nevertheless it’s not out of the query that his time at altitude had one thing to do with that. His peak rating ranks 10th among first basemen, practically 5 wins above the usual, and the latest elections of Gil Hodges, Fred McGriff, and David Ortiz — all with a JAWS about 9 to fifteen factors decrease – have elevated that margin.

After polling at 16.5% in his first yr of eligibility, Helton banked massive beneficial properties on the 2020 and ’21 ballots, crossed the 50% threshold in ’22, and missed by simply 11 votes final yr. Candidates this shut virtually all the time get in on the subsequent poll, however this one might be a detailed name; Helton is polling at 80.8% proper now however is internet -1 amongst returning voters.

Billy Wagner (sixth amongst relievers in R-JAWS, 68.1% in 2023)

The holder of the all-time information for strikeout fee and opponent batting common, albeit at only a 900-inning threshold, Wagner is wanting the admittedly slapdash commonplace established by the eight enshrined relievers. Since I’ve by no means been totally glad with how JAWS handles that small group, I’ve remained open-minded, looking for alternate methods to guage relievers; by my experimental R-JAWS, which includes Win Chance Added (WPA) and situational or context-neutral wins (WPA/LI) in addition to WAR, he’s the highest reliever outdoors the Corridor, trailing solely Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rich Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman. After debuting at 10.5% in 2016 and gaining little floor within the subsequent three cycles, his help has greater than quadrupled over the previous 4. At this level he’s polling at 74%, and is simply internet +2 amongst returning voters, suggesting that he might have to attend till subsequent yr, his closing one on the poll.

Andruw Jones (eleventh amongst middle fielders in JAWS, 58.1% in 2023)

If 2018 Corridor of Fame honoree Chipper Jones was the Braves dynasty’s offensive cornerstone, Andruw Jones was its defensive one, an elite flychaser who gained 10 Gold Gloves and ranks first on the place in fielding runs (+235). He might hit, too, bopping 434 profession homers. His profession collapsed at age 31, nevertheless; he performed simply 435 video games over his closing 5 seasons, disappearing from the majors at age 35, and so whereas he’s nicely above the height commonplace, he’s quick on the profession one and in JAWS. I’m not so bothered by that, given his relative rating and the truth that the requirements in middle and proper area are a number of factors greater than each different place. After two years within the mid-7% vary, he’s added greater than 50 share factors over the previous 4 cycles, and whereas he doesn’t seem like gaining further momentum this yr, he seems to have an excellent shot at eventual election by the writers.

These are the slam dunks amongst my holdovers. Subsequent comes a pair whom I’ve included on my three official ballots, private favorites whose JAWS is within the neighborhood of fifty. I don’t see any cause to depart them off now.

Bobby Abreu (twenty first amongst proper fielders in JAWS, 15.4% in 2023)

A five-tool participant with dazzling velocity, a candy left-handed stroke, and sufficient energy to win a House Run Derby, Abreu was a stathead favourite because of his otherworldly plate self-discipline. He posted on-base percentages of .400 or greater eight occasions (.395 for his profession) because of his potential to take a stroll (100 or extra eight years in a row). But regardless of routinely reaching conventional seasonal plateaus — a .300 batting common (six occasions), 20 homers (9 occasions), 30 steals (six occasions), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight occasions apiece) — he was ridiculously underappreciated by the mainstream, making simply two All-Star groups and successful one Gold Glove. He barely scraped by in his 2020 poll debut with 5.5%, however final yr broke into double digits for the primary time.

Gary Sheffield (twenty fourth in JAWS amongst proper fielders, 55% in 2023)

There’s no denying Shef’s talent with the stick. His complete of 561 batting runs above common (the offensive element of bWAR) ranks twenty eighth all-time, whereas his 140 OPS+ is tied for forty ninth; he’s both alongside or forward of quite a few no-doubt Corridor of Famers in these classes, and to that he added an aesthetic high quality of sheer menace within the batter’s field because of his lightning-quick reflexes and violent swing. It’s his protection (-195 runs, second-lowest all time forward of solely Jeter), not his BALCO connection or his penchant for controversy — two areas that require some digging to be able to get a full and truthful image — that stored me from placing an excessive amount of inventory in his candidacy, because it knocks him greater than seven factors under the place commonplace. But I’m troubled by the extent to which these outlying defensive stats, that are largely estimates from the pre-batted-ball-type period, nuke Sheffield’s worth, and that goes double after they’re in comparison with his defensive numbers through different methodologies. What’s extra, it’s price noting that 65% of his plate appearances got here within the NL, the place he didn’t have the prospect to function a DH. If he had DHed like Ortiz, would he be in?

Sheffield’s help has greater than quadrupled from 2019 (13.6%) to ’23, however whereas he’s nearer to election heading into the ultimate yr of eligibility than Walker was (54.6% in 2019), the BALCO connection might be sufficient of a drag to maintain him under 75%. He’s at 72.6% within the Tracker, with a internet of +5 votes, however he’s about 10 factors under the place Walker was within the early public voting. His odds of eventual election have definitely improved, nevertheless it stays to be seen if the Corridor stonewalls him with its Up to date Baseball Period Committee make-up, as was the case for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.

That’s eight spots stuffed on my poll. Quantity 9 is one who ought to have been a slam dunk.

Carlos Beltrán (ninth amongst middle fielders in JAWS, 46.5% in 2023)

The quintessential five-tool participant, Beltrán is one among eight with no less than 300 homers and 300 steals, and owns the best stolen base success fee (86.4%) of any participant with no less than 200 makes an attempt. He’s a bit under all three requirements at a really top-heavy place however the very best eligible middle fielder outdoors the Corridor.

Beltrán would possibly already be enshrined if he hadn’t been on the middle of the Astros’ illegal sign-stealing scandal, so central that it nipped his managerial profession within the bud. Whereas his personal efficiency didn’t profit, he did one thing towards the foundations, and it continued by means of a postseason through which his crew gained a championship. Not each participant was snug with it, but when we’re to consider the varied studies, no person stood as much as him, and so he noticed no have to cease. However on condition that supervisor A.J. Hinch reportedly destroyed two screens, it’s price questioning each his management functionality and the handy scapegoating of Beltrán as a lone actor, and it’s additionally price noting that like spitballing/ball-doctoring, sign-stealing is a conduct that exists alongside a continuum of baseball historical past that stretches again practically a century and a half. The fan in me empathizes with that nice 2017 Dodgers crew being cheated out of a title, however the trade skilled in me is aware of that the Astros had been merely probably the most excessive instance of a crew stealing indicators electronically, a few of which had been finally reported and others simply whispered about.

I went into final yr considering I’d withhold my vote for Beltrán for a yr however seemingly embody him sooner or later, treating his transgression extra like Roberto Alomar‘s spitting on the umpire, an out-of-character incident that value him the consideration of first-ballot induction, somewhat than Rafael Palmeiro’s failed PED check, a late-career mistake that banished him from all critical consideration. After spending hours speaking about it with buddies and fellow writers (a few of them voters), I returned to the framework of my PED coverage: if the commissioner couldn’t punish him for what he did, I’m not going to play the vigilante and administer frontier justice on behalf of MLB or the Corridor.

Beltrán made a good debut final yr and appears to be gaining some momentum, albeit not sufficient to parallel Alomar’s second-year election. He’s at 65.8% within the Tracker, with the best internet vote complete at +6.

I might simply name it a day by voting for 9 candidates, however the presence of Colon led me to consider the opportunity of loosening up a bit to forged a vote for a private favourite, or no less than somebody who fell under my analytically-based cutoff. Such gestures had been as soon as fairly frequent amongst precise voters however went out of vogue through the poll crunch of the previous decade.

Colon, whose profession was exceptionally entertaining and carried some private resonance — I noticed him carry a no-hitter additional than every other pitcher I’ve witnessed firsthand, and my in-utero daughter acquired a nickname in his honor within the wake of his 2016 residence run — was the primary candidate I thought of for this spot. Nevertheless, voting for him in gentle of his PED suspension whereas not voting for Manny or A-Rod opened one can of worms, and doing so as an alternative of contemplating both Buehrle or Pettitte, each of whom have stronger circumstances based mostly on run prevention, WAR, and JAWS, opened one other. In order that was out.

I thought of Wright, who was plausibly on a Hall of Fame path earlier than spinal stenosis wrecked his profession in his early 30s. I thought of Rollins, who would pair nicely with Utley in a salute to the Lou Whitaker–Alan Trammell tandem that ought to have entered the Corridor collectively a pair many years in the past.

Ultimately, given how a lot I’ve written about beginning pitching requirements, I made a decision to go along with Pettitte. By WAR and S-JAWS, he and Buerhle are very related, pitchers whose S-JAWS falls within the twenty seventh and twenty eighth percentiles relative to these already enshrined, however there’s a transparent separation relating to their our bodies of postseason work. Buerhle helped win one championship with the White Sox in 2005 however owns a profession 4.11 ERA in 30.2 postseason innings, whereas Pettitte helped the Yankees win 5 championships, pitched in eight World Collection (together with 2005 with Houston), and put up a 3.81 ERA in a report 276.2 innings. Pettitte is additional alongside in his candidacy than Buerhle and has been higher supported by voters (17% to 10.8% las yr). As for his admission of utilizing human development hormone in 2002 and ’04 after he turned up within the Mitchell Report, each of these got here earlier than MLB banned it in ’05, placing his infractions within the Wild West period.

All of which is to say that I now view Pettitte as a extra believable candidate than I as soon as did, and that’s even earlier than making use of a bonus for the best way that voting for him takes me again to my days as a fan. I spent extra time watching him and masking him than every other candidate on this poll, and I’ve a substantial amount of respect for what he meant to the Yankees’ success in that interval. So, for the primary time, he will get my X. I stay open to together with Buerhle in some unspecified time in the future, nevertheless it gained’t be this yr.

In order that’s one other imperfect poll within the books and, by the point you learn this, within the mail.

I don’t totally love the best way this got here out, the extent to which my self-imposed guidelines forestall me from merely voting for the ten finest gamers on the poll. However I nonetheless suppose the road I’ve drawn almost about PEDs is an affordable one, and I gained’t lose website of the larger image: I’m gratified that after masking baseball and analyzing Corridor of Fame elections for therefore lengthy on the skin, I get to forged a poll. It’s nonetheless only one vote from amongst practically 400, much less impactful than my work to sway precise voters and assist the likes of Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen and others discover houses in Cooperstown, nevertheless it’s additionally symbolic.

I say this yearly nevertheless it bears repeating: I’m standing on the shoulders of giants within the area of baseball evaluation, individuals who entered this trade with out going by means of the normal newspaper shops and who both had been by no means admitted to the BBWAA or didn’t final lengthy sufficient inside it to vote. Folks corresponding to John Thorn, Invoice James, Rob Neyer, Joe Sheehan, Christina Kahrl, and Steven Goldman had been amongst those that opened my eyes to alternative ways of viewing baseball many years in the past, and their ideas on the Corridor of Fame and its processes inevitably seeped into my very own views of the establishment and who’s worthy of admission. Of that group, solely the trailblazing Kahrl is a BBWAA voter. I’d desire a voting course of that discovered room for the entire above and different specialists from past the mainstream, however as long as it doesn’t, I’ll do my finest to symbolize.