The Giants shored up their catcher scenario late Monday, signing Tom Murphy, previously of the Mariners, to a two-year contract price $8 million. A 3rd-round decide by the Rockies, that membership had little taking part in time accessible for him as a result of presence of superstars like Tony Wolters and Nick Hundley. Prone to changing into an organizational participant, he discovered a brand new residence with Seattle, which paired him with Omar Narváez and watched the house runs movement like alcohol in Belltown. In 4 seasons of timeshare catching there, Murphy hit .250/.324/.460 with 38 homers in 807 plate appearances. Patrick Bailey (rightly) stays the beginning catcher in San Francisco, however he now has a high-quality junior associate when relaxation or the occasional offensive oomph is required.
Since Murphy’s preliminary season with the Mariners (2019), his greatest within the majors to-date, he’s suffered a run of accidents which have prevented him from seizing bigger parts of a beginning job. A damaged foot within the COVID-shortened 2020 ended his season earlier than it started, and a shoulder harm price him most of ’22. By the point he was wholesome once more, Cal Raleigh had turn into a key a part of the lineup and earned the lion’s share of the taking part in time.
Bailey is the no. 1 catcher in San Francisco, a deserving Gold Glove finalist in his rookie season. What he isn’t is an offensive powerhouse. ZiPS initiatives 2.4 WAR from him in 105 video games, however that’s largely pushed by a defensive projection of 13 runs higher than the typical catcher, not a projected .226/.294/.361 triple-slash. And that’s the place Murphy is available in, each spelling Bailey on relaxation days and giving the Giants the tactical alternative to get a greater bat within the late innings once they’re dealing with a deficit and will use a further hitter. Additionally serving to Murphy in getting plate appearances is the Giants lengthy being a group that has protected the well being of its beginning catchers; Buster Posey solely began 120 video games there as soon as in his profession.
So how a lot offense may Murphy provide in San Francisco?
ZiPS Projection – Tom Murphy
Yr | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | .254 | .327 | .430 | 193 | 25 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 21 | 60 | 0 | 108 | -1 | 1.1 |
2025 | .246 | .320 | .410 | 183 | 22 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 58 | 0 | 101 | -1 | 0.9 |
2024 ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Tom Murphy
Percentile | 2B | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
95% | 15 | 13 | .309 | .385 | .546 | 149 | 2.2 |
90% | 14 | 12 | .296 | .373 | .521 | 141 | 2.0 |
80% | 13 | 10 | .283 | .357 | .490 | 131 | 1.8 |
70% | 11 | 9 | .271 | .348 | .469 | 125 | 1.6 |
60% | 11 | 9 | .263 | .338 | .449 | 116 | 1.4 |
50% | 10 | 8 | .254 | .327 | .430 | 108 | 1.1 |
40% | 10 | 8 | .240 | .319 | .414 | 102 | 1.0 |
30% | 9 | 7 | .231 | .310 | .398 | 95 | 0.8 |
20% | 8 | 6 | .218 | .295 | .380 | 87 | 0.5 |
10% | 7 | 5 | .199 | .279 | .342 | 74 | 0.2 |
5% | 6 | 5 | .185 | .265 | .316 | 62 | 0.0 |
The projection is down a bit from his 116 OPS+ in Seattle, however he’s additionally going to show 33 the primary week of the 2023 season, and Oracle Park isn’t a very beneficiant residence for energy hitters. Nonetheless, that’s a invaluable complementary participant. Amusingly, that is really his second stint with the Giants; he was claimed off waivers from the Rockies throughout spring coaching in 2019 earlier than being traded to the Mariners just some days later.
This transfer additionally doubtless closes the quickly waning Joey Bart period in San Francisco. At one level the consensus greatest catching prospect in baseball, he suffered his first setback within the minors very early, dropping a lot of his first full skilled season to a damaged hand. With the minor leagues not present in 2020, the Giants noticed the dangers of him being overmatched within the majors as lower than merely not taking part in him for a 12 months. I agreed with the calculation — it’s usually higher to problem your greatest prospects, and dropping one other 12 months would have been enormous — however Bart struggled. He continued to combat accidents in 2021, and whereas he hit higher for Triple-A Sacramento, ZiPS solely gave him a .263/.323/.390 translation for the season. Then he didn’t impress in 2022, and given the beginning job coming into ’23, he misplaced it in simply over a month. By the point Bailey grew to become the no-question starter, Bart had already been handed on the depth chart by Blake Sabol.
ZiPS Projection – Joey Bart
Yr | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | .228 | .297 | .351 | 302 | 39 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 23 | 103 | 1 | 80 | -1 | 0.7 |
2025 | .226 | .295 | .349 | 301 | 38 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 23 | 101 | 1 | 78 | -1 | 0.6 |
2026 | .226 | .296 | .350 | 297 | 38 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 23 | 98 | 1 | 79 | -1 | 0.6 |
2027 | .222 | .295 | .342 | 266 | 34 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 21 | 88 | 1 | 77 | -2 | 0.4 |
2028 | .216 | .286 | .338 | 222 | 27 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 73 | -2 | 0.2 |
ZiPS Projection – Blake Sabol
Yr | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | .229 | .296 | .368 | 345 | 40 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 52 | 30 | 124 | 4 | 83 | -9 | 0.2 |
2025 | .226 | .295 | .365 | 345 | 40 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 52 | 31 | 120 | 4 | 82 | -9 | 0.1 |
2026 | .227 | .297 | .369 | 339 | 39 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 31 | 116 | 3 | 84 | -8 | 0.2 |
2027 | .231 | .302 | .380 | 321 | 38 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 48 | 30 | 109 | 3 | 88 | -8 | 0.4 |
2028 | .224 | .296 | .369 | 295 | 34 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 28 | 99 | 2 | 84 | -8 | 0.1 |
There have been different choices accessible in free company, however Mitch Garver would doubtless desire a bigger share of taking part in time than Murphy, and regardless of his superior place in our free-agent rankings, I like Gary Sánchez on the Giants lower than I like Murphy. And $4 million a 12 months in your lesser catcher in free company isn’t a nasty deal; even the skinflint Rays signal a participant like Mike Zunino or Wilson Ramos to the same kind of contract most years. Nor will $4 million hamstring San Francisco’s makes an attempt to signal one of many remaining elite free brokers accessible.
Does Murphy make the Dodgers uncomfortable within the NL West? No, however San Francisco now enters the season with its greatest catching outlook since Posey retired, and in Murphy, the Giants discovered their man at a really cheap value.