Tonight is a giant night time for Zach Eflin. When he takes the mound, he’ll be making his nineteenth begin, and when he earns his second out of the night, he’ll have retired his 318th batter, good for 106 innings on the yr. These aren’t data or good spherical numbers, however they’re significant for this explicit pitcher; he hasn’t surpassed these totals since 2019, his first and solely certified season. The Rays took a raffle on the righty this winter (by their very own requirements, at the very least), signing the oft-injured starter to the largest free-agent deal in franchise history. When Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs every went down with season-ending injuries, the stakes for Eflin grew larger. However with every subsequent begin he makes, his contract appears much less like a raffle and extra like freeway theft. When Eflin data his second out tonight, he’ll have given the Rays greater than he gave the Phillies in a single season because the pre-pandemic days.
Eflin practically reached 106 innings his final trip, however the fates weren’t on his facet. An hour-long rain delay messed together with his preparation proper earlier than first pitch, and the hapless Royals selected that specific day to attain 5 unanswered runs within the first two innings of play. Eflin was pulled shortly thereafter, and he must wait one other 5 days to have fun his achievement. Barring catastrophe, he’ll get there earlier than 7:00 PM ET this night, and all issues thought of, the timing truly works out fairly effectively. His 106th inning will coincide together with his nineteenth begin, and his outing in the present day will mark the most recent date on the calendar that he’s began a sport since 2020.
What makes tonight all of the extra particular is the opportunity of what’s to come back. Eflin is on tempo to make 30 begins and throw about 170 innings, each of which might be new profession highs. When he certified for the ERA title in 2019, he did so by the pores and skin of his tooth, tossing 163.1 frames. He briefly misplaced his rotation spot after a disastrous efficiency that July (certainly, this season marks the primary profitable July of his profession), and if the Phillies had optioned him to Triple-A as an alternative of placing him within the bullpen, he’d have fallen 13 outs in need of qualification. Thus, he’s seeking to end the season as a totally certified beginning pitcher for the very first time.
When Eflin was a teenager, FanGraphs prospect gurus praised his potential as a mid-rotation innings eater. So what went fallacious? Accidents, as is usually the case. Eflin’s 6-foot-6 body has failed him sooner or later in each season of his massive league profession. He’s been on the injured listing 9 separate occasions since his debut in 2016 — ten in case you depend the COVID IL. The shortened 2020 season was the one yr he averted an IL stint, and even then, he handled again spasms throughout “summer season camp,” pushing again his first begin and limiting his pitch depend in his first few outings. He handled again tightness earlier this yr too – it’s grow to be a persistent concern at this level – however this time round, he returned after the minimal 15 days and rapidly received again on monitor. He’s regarded sharp and wholesome ever since.
Eflin has been the Rays’ most useful pitcher this yr, and his 2.6 WAR ranks eighth within the American League. A strong begin tonight may bump him as much as fifth place; an ideal begin may get him all the way in which to 3rd. Decimal factors of WAR are about as significant as decimal factors in your financial institution steadiness, however the additional Eflin creeps up the leaderboards, the extra consideration he’s certain to get. And as he receives extra recognition for his breakout efficiency, it’s value remembering the pitcher he was earlier than this season.
It could be simple to presume the Rays labored their magic to unlock one thing new from Eflin, however he has lengthy been higher than most individuals assume. He took an enormous step ahead in 2020, however the shortened season introduced his breakout to an early finish. Accidents had the identical impact in 2021 and ’22. On prime of that, the dreadful Phillies protection all the time did him additional disservice. His ERA was noticeably larger than each estimator in annually from 2020 to ’22. In different phrases, Eflin didn’t want any magic. He solely wanted to remain wholesome for his $40 million deal to appear to be a discount.
Right here’s one thing which may shock. Eflin has thrown 345.2 innings because the begin of the 2020 season; 107 different pitchers have thrown at the very least 300 innings in that point. Amongst that group, Eflin ranks twenty first in WAR per innings pitched, and he’s primarily in a seven-way tie with Luis Castillo, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Alex Cobb, and Gerrit Cole. I’ll provide you with a second to learn these names once more. It goes with out saying that sturdiness is an important ability – there’s a cause WAR is a counting stat and never a price stat – however the level is that Eflin by no means wanted to make any dramatic modifications to grow to be a frontline starter. He simply wanted to remain on the sphere.
Certainly, so long as he’s wholesome, pitching deep into video games isn’t an issue for Eflin. He throws a ton of strikes however doesn’t rack up strikeouts, thereby conserving his pitch counts low. As well as, he has a few tips up his sleeve that he can whip out when he wants a whiff to flee a jam. He ranks within the prime third of pitchers in innings per begin since 2020, and he rises into the highest quarter in case you take away a few of his injury-affected outings.
Eflin struggled mightily in his last begin of 2021 earlier than hitting the injured listing, and he slogged his means via three painful outings in 2022. Eradicating these 4 video games from his ledger, he made 37 different begins over his final three seasons with the Phillies, posting a 3.87 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and three.57 xFIP and averaging 5.77 innings per begin. This yr, as compared, he has a 3.59 ERA, a 3.13 FIP, and three.17 xFIP. These numbers aren’t so completely different. Plus, it’s value remembering that he moved to a pitcher-friendly house stadium and is pitching with a stronger infield protection behind him. All this to say, Eflin isn’t a brand-new pitcher. Issues are simply going his means for the primary time in his profession.
Now, this isn’t to say Eflin hasn’t improved; he definitely has! His ERA, FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA are all profession lows. He’s permitting extra exhausting contact, however he’s additionally inducing extra groundballs. His stroll price, which has all the time been glorious, is the bottom it’s ever been. On prime of that, he’s incomes swings and misses at the perfect price of his profession. That isn’t saying a lot for a man whose whiff price lives within the blue on Baseball Savant, however no pitcher goes to complain about further swinging strikes.
Even higher, Eflin is posting the perfect numbers of his profession towards left-handed hitters. He ditched his four-seam fastball towards righties just a few years again, and now he’s performed the identical towards lefties. He’s spreading the love between his different pitches as an alternative, and the outcomes have been glorious. His curveball, specifically, has been nasty; opposite-handed hitters have a .169 wOBA and a 34.1% whiff price towards the curve, which they’re seeing over 30% of the time.
In the end, the important thing for Eflin has been specializing in what he already does effectively. He’s throwing his greatest pitches extra typically, and he’s centered on throwing strikes. Most significantly, he’s conserving the ball low within the zone. Check out the warmth maps for his 4 most-used pitches, and also you’ll see a complete lack of coloration across the prime of every picture:
Eflin has excelled at conserving the ball low since he grew to become a main sinker-baller in 2020, however this yr he’s reached one other degree. Out of 124 pitchers with at the very least 1,000 pitches this season, solely two (Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco) have thrown a decrease share of their strikes within the higher third of the zone. Moreover, neither Stroman nor Carrasco throws practically as many strikes as Eflin. They each rank among the many backside 20% in zone price, and Eflin ranks within the prime 15%. Of the 51 starters who’ve thrown at the very least 50% of their pitches within the zone, none avoids the higher third like Eflin. Partially, this displays the truth that he’s throwing fewer four-seam fastballs, however it additionally demonstrates refined management of his cutter, which has grow to be a key weapon in his arsenal.
Eflin’s main cause for conserving the ball low is obvious: He desires to induce groundballs and referred to as strikes, each of which come extra continuously on pitches additional down within the zone. However there’s a secondary profit, too. Opposing hitters are nearly by no means anticipating a pitch above their waist, and Eflin dominates when he surprises them up within the zone. He has held opponents to a .240 wOBA and .260 xwOBA on pitches within the higher half, and his strikeout price within the higher third is sort of double his strikeout price over the remainder of the plate.
All these enhancements have helped Eflin put collectively the perfect efficiency of his profession, however on the finish of the day, none of it will make a distinction if he couldn’t keep on the sphere. He isn’t breaking out due to a brand new pitch or a brand new method. He’s breaking out as a result of he’s lastly wholesome, and he’s lastly pitching sufficient for the baseball world to take word.
