The Woes of Tommy Pham

Amidst the offseason hubbub, it’s straightforward to overlook a transfer right here and there. Final week, Tommy Pham signed with the Reds on a one-year, $7.5 million contract. Cincinnati had one of many league’s weaker outfields, with an unimpressive trio of Nick Senzel, Tyler Naquin, and Shogo Akiyama. Pham, now 34, is previous in baseball years. His time in San Diego didn’t go so properly, and he’s been offered with a chance to show himself. The Reds are promoting, however exactly as a result of they aren’t contenders, Pham ought to discover loads of time on the sphere. It is a deal either side are presumably proud of.

However should you’ve been on Baseball Savant earlier than, you might think about how this deal might need ended up otherwise. In that state of affairs, Pham definitely nets greater than $7.5 million. Perhaps even a number of years. He’s settled for his present contract as a result of, within the final two seasons, Pham has posted a 97 wRC+. The Reds are paying him as if he’s anticipated to contribute one or two wins above substitute.

I’ll get to the purpose. Beneath is a straightforward scatterplot, that includes precise wOBA on the x-axis and anticipated wOBA on the y-axis. Every level is a participant, and the purpose in yellow is Pham:

The five hundred plate look minimal is there to remove one-and-dones, but in addition to indicate that, after a adequate time frame, the 2 metrics bear a powerful resemblance. It’s uncommon for hitters to drastically under- or over-perform throughout a full season or extra. There are all the time exceptions, after all. Since 2020, Pham’s precise wOBA has been .312, in comparison with an anticipated wOBA of .354. His is the third largest hole on this pattern, behind Carlos Santana and Gregory Polanco. By what Pham has truly achieved, he seems like a hitter in decline. However by what Pham may have achieved, he seems like a borderline All-Star.

To interrupt down Pham’s misfortune, I’ve divided this text by batted ball kind: groundballs, line drives, and fly balls. Doing so is environment friendly and can present us with an correct analysis of what’s ailing Pham. If Pham’s grounders have been unproductive, that’s workable. Line drives, although, are a special story. Let’s resolve this:

Groundballs: .213 wOBA / .249 xwOBA

Alright, this isn’t so dangerous. Pham did worse than anticipated on his groundballs, however the actual-expected hole is inside the realm of variance. In addition to, they’re the least priceless of the three. Getting as much as that .249 mark wouldn’t have boosted Pham’s manufacturing by a major quantity, actuality doesn’t change, I nonetheless find yourself writing this text, and so forth.

Does Pham preserve his dangerous luck on grounders sooner or later? It relies upon. Pull-heavy sluggers affected by the shift are likely to do poorly when hitting the ball straight down, however since 2020, our protagonist has pulled simply 43.1% of his groundballs. He’s reasonably quick, so he isn’t lacking out on beatable throws to first. However most of all, groundballs are plain fickle, and there’s not a lot a hitter can do about them. Perhaps Pham undershoots his groundball xwOBA this season; perhaps he doesn’t. We gained’t know till the outcomes begin trickling in.

Line Drives: .625 wOBA / .681 xwOBA

This is a little more substantial. A line drive is among the greatest outcomes for a hitter, however Pham hasn’t been reaping the total advantages. The best way it appears, he’s about equal components accountable and never. Batted ball path is a vital issue that xwOBA doesn’t account for, and within the case of line drives, pulled ones considerably over-perform, reverse area ones barely over-perform, and straightaway ones considerably underperform. These are developments primarily based on giant swaths of Statcast knowledge.

In a single sense, Pham hasn’t carved out his personal luck. As established earlier, he doesn’t pull the ball a lot, and round a 3rd of his line drives have been hit in direction of heart area. Not surprisingly, chunk of them was outs. Balls lose momentum the farther they’re hit, hitting the ball to the center maximizes distance, and heart fielders are likely to have the very best vary. It’s an uphill battle of kinds. And whereas Pham emerged victorious at occasions, he misplaced sufficient to create a dent in his manufacturing.

What he’s not chargeable for: When Pham hit a line drive the opposite method, he collected a .389 wOBA versus an anticipated .590 wOBA. That’s gotta sting. There’s no satisfying rationalization, both. Did pitchers exploit his tendency to go oppo and bombard the outer half of the plate? Not likely – so far as I can inform, a Pham-specific strategy doesn’t exist. What about outfield shifts, since Pham’s spray patterns are well-known? I checked, however there have been solely three attainable performs the place it may have made a distinction. That is one among them:

Per Baseball Savant, Taylor was barely to his left. He’s additionally a rangy defender, so it’s arduous to say he wouldn’t have made the catch in any other case. General, it doesn’t look like an enormous issue. And Pham had little management over the components that did matter. Generally, the wind takes the ball to an odd location, or fielders simply occur to be standing on the excellent spot. Generally, Mookie Betts occurs:

Fly Balls: .387 wOBA / .549 xwOBA

There’s our drawback. No marvel Pham’s efforts didn’t translate into on-field outcomes. When he hit a fly ball in his two most up-to-date seasons, it resulted in a single too many deaths on the warning observe. You could possibly chalk a few of that as much as crummy luck, certain. However in contrast to with groundballs and line drives, this looks like a direct consequence of Pham – particularly, with respect to how he’s modified as a hitter. He doesn’t pull quite a lot of grounders, and the speed at which he does has been principally constant. Ditto with line drives. In relation to fly balls, although, we will observe a change:

You may ignore that blip in 2020, as Pham hit solely 16 line drives that 12 months. In any other case, the pattern is obvious. At the beginning of that graph, his charge of non-pulled fly balls stood at 78.9%. 4 years later, it climbed to 89.3%. Practically 9 out of each 10 fly balls went to both heart or the alternative area final season, with main implications for his outcomes on contact. Within the Statcast period, opposite-field fly balls have underperformed by a margin of 5 factors of wOBA. That’s hardly a loss, however it’s definitely much less useful than pulling the ball.

Right here’s the kicker: Straightaway fly balls have underperformed by a margin of 151 factors of wOBA. It takes quite a lot of energy to muscle a ball over the middle area wall, and whereas Pham has above-average pop, he’s typically come up brief. It additionally doesn’t assist that as a result of new baseball’s added drag, non-pulled fly balls, which already journey much less far at decrease speeds in comparison with their pulled counterparts, averaged the bottom distance on document. In different phrases, Pham selected simply concerning the worst second to kick his pull-averse tendencies into overdrive.

Lastly, I’d be remiss if I omitted the environments Pham performs in. There’s been a shift on this regard, since he went from taking part in with the Rays (mid-2018–19) to the Padres (2020–21). The previous staff belongs to the AL East; the latter belongs to the NL West. What I’m about to put out isn’t a foolproof comparability, however its premise is sound. Baseball Savant supplies park issue knowledge. Amongst a number of choices to select from, let’s give attention to the house run issue for lefties. Why lefties? Pham bats right-handed, however his fly ball distribution resembles that of the everyday lefty. And it’s the fly balls which have broken him essentially the most.

With that in thoughts, right here’s a fairly self-explanatory desk:

Every quantity is the three-year rolling common of the lefty residence run issue for a given staff’s residence park. In arriving in San Diego, Pham moved from a division that might stand to spice up his residence run whole to a different that might stand to cut back it. As I discussed earlier, that is hardly an ideal measure. Gamers aren’t confined to their division, for instance. The Blue Jays, as a part of the nomad way of life, spent a big chunk of time away from their residence, Rogers Middle. That complicates how we measure park components. They don’t apply equally to every at-bat, so it’s attainable to defy these components for a 12 months, perhaps two.

However, general, we will agree that Pham discovered himself in an unfavorable surroundings. The one remaining query is why his present tendencies grew to become extra excessive. Avoiding the pull facet with most of your air balls suggests intent. Perhaps Pham thought that might work to his profit, although it’s value noting I didn’t determine a change in his batting stance. Or perhaps there’s a problem together with his swing mechanics, one thing neither he nor the Padres picked up on. It’s arduous to say as outsiders with no data of staff inner-workings.

As Pham now finds himself within the NL Central, maybe the Reds might help him shake off a disappointing two-year stretch. On the very least, Nice American Ball Park is a haven for left- and right-handed hitters alike. It’s unlikely Pham begins pulling the ball after a profession of avoiding doing so, however on the identical time, I’d argue he crossed a harmful threshold final season. All that’s obligatory is a return to the norm. Even when Pham doesn’t change, it’s plain that he’s been down on his luck. He can’t underperform for for much longer – a 42-point hole is ridiculous – and this season looks like an opportunity to show it round on a low-risk deal.

Yet one more factor. In July of final 12 months, with Oakland at San Diego, Pham hit a monster fly ball towards Yusmeiro Petit to heart. It was held captive by Petco Park, and ended up dying on the warning observe. Right here’s his expression shortly after the ball was caught:

That’s the face of a person resigned to a lifetime of near-misses. Could the woes of Tommy Pham stay up to now.