In current weeks, many eyes have been on the continually evolving state of affairs surrounding the Minnesota Vikings, the place Dalvin Cook dinner’s future has been doubtful. With a launch or commerce reportedly imminent, what’s the 2023 fantasy football outlook for longtime RB handcuff Alexander Mattison?
Alexander Mattison: One of many Prime Handcuffs
As longtime readers know, every of the previous couple of summers I’ve pushed the identical three guys as must-draft working backs primarily based on their constantly too-low ADPs: Tony Pollard, AJ Dillon, and Mattison.
The explanations needs to be clear. All three have had monster ceilings when given the prospect to begin. Investing a middle-round draft decide on a high-payoff lottery ticket is cash nicely spent.
Of the three, Mattison has had probably the most muted profession to date. Pollard proved final season that longtime bell cow Ezekiel Elliott was past expendable, ending as the general RB8.
Whereas he’s racked up 615.3 fantasy factors in 4 seasons, Dillon has a decent 393.5 in three campaigns, with stand-alone streaming worth in each 2021 and 2022.
What about Mattison? Properly, a principally wholesome Cook dinner — mixed with Minnesota’s top-heavy offensive method — has stunted Mattison’s growth. He’s accrued solely 369.6 fantasy factors in 4 seasons.
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However these numbers don’t replicate how good he’s. The ultimate decide within the third spherical of the 2019 NFL Draft, Mattison has often shined when given the prospect. In six profession begins, he’s put collectively a 117-477-3 dashing line and a 23-216-2 receiving line.
Moreover, heading into final season, he was the one NFL working again to complete within the prime eight in broken-tackle fee in every of those earlier three seasons. Final yr, he completed only a bit exterior the highest 12.
As a workhorse-capable RB (he hit 20+ carries 13 occasions whereas at Boise State, together with a 40-carry effort) in a plus offense with good palms, Mattison has at all times been on the verge of fantasy greatness. He’s merely wanted the chance.
Mattison’s 2023 Fantasy Worth
As Cook dinner’s illustrious tenure in Minnesota involves an in depth, fantasy managers have to know the place to draft Mattison. There are three main components to contemplate.
First, to what extent do the Vikings belief Mattison as their new bell cow? I imagine the reply is “so much.” Understanding Cook dinner’s time in Minnesota may be ending, this franchise nonetheless held fairly agency this offseason with their current backfield expertise.
Behind Mattison are 2022 fifth-rounder Ty Chandler and 2021 fourth-rounder Kene Nwangwu. Each are strong depth items. Neither are fierce challengers for toppling Mattison atop the depth chart.
On this yr’s draft, the Vikes opted to bypass a lot of NFL-ready RBs, selecting DeWayne McBride within the seventh spherical as an alternative. It’d show to be an excellent decide (McBride was a little bit of a steal at that spot), and whereas the rookie would possibly ultimately earn the handcuff function, he’s a extra two-dimensional model of Mattison. In different phrases, whereas McBride would possibly decide up a couple of carries per sport, Mattison stays the extra gifted and versatile possibility.
Second, will Mattison earn goal-line seems to be? That is key to his fantasy worth. A 12-TD bell cow versus a five-TD bell cow? You don’t must be a mathematician to understand the distinction. To be a certifiable top-10 RB, Mattison must earn his staff’s belief close to the top zone.
In Week 18 final yr, he scored twice from the 1-yard line — a potential preview of how he’ll be utilized this season. The truth is, 11 of Mattison’s 14 profession scores have come from contained in the 10-yard line.
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Final season, solely two working backs earned extra carries than Cook dinner contained in the 5-yard line. If this holds for his substitute, then Mattison needs to be simply high-quality.
Third, to what extent will Minnesota feed Mattison early every sport? As fantasy managers know, your star RB exiting the primary quarter with three carries for 14 scoreless yards could cause minor heartburn. Many groups attempt to set up the run. Not all are profitable, and typically they bail early.
In 5 of Cook dinner’s six NFL seasons, he earned extra carries within the opening body than in another. This was an unheralded key to his fantasy prowess. By working early and infrequently, there was much less threat of an excessively constructive or overly adverse sport script sabotaging his fantasy day.
If Mattison is a top-three offensive weapon within the opening quarter, then he ought to constantly have 4-8 fantasy factors heading into the second body. That may not look like a lot, however it may imply the distinction between a weekly must-start RB and a weekly streamer.
I’m bullish about Mattison in 2023 as a result of I imagine all three components will bend his approach. He needs to be ranked as a top-10 fantasy RB.
