Jonathan India Is Bouncing Back in an Unexpected Way

Jonathan India began his profession with a bang. In 2021, the Cincinnati second baseman put up a 120 wRC+ and three.0 WAR over 150 video games, ok to snag Nationwide League Rookie of the 12 months honors. Final 12 months, a hamstring harm restricted him to only 103 video games, and he struggled to a 95 wRC+ on the plate. He regarded like a pure bounce again candidate coming into the 2023 season, and right here he’s bouncing again. After a giant day on Sunday, India’s .306/.397/.460 slash line consists of three career-best figures. His underlying metrics are additionally higher than ever in a number of classes.

Let’s begin with plate self-discipline. India is chasing lower than ever, whiffing lower than ever, strolling extra, and placing out means much less. These developments are all — and please excuse the within baseball jargon right here — excellent. His chase price has both improved or held regular towards each pitch sort apart from sinkers, which have been one thing of an Achilles’ heel this 12 months. He’s hitting them more durable, however 71% of the sinkers he’s put in play have been groundballs, up from 54% in earlier years.

India is reaching base extra and hitting the ball a lot more durable. After the earlier paragraph, you may assume that his elevated exit velocity has come from hitting extra pitches within the zone, however the distinction is smaller than you may assume: 87% of his balls in play got here on pitches within the zone, versus 84% in 2021. Additional, an in depth have a look at his batting line reveals one thing attention-grabbing: Though he’s hitting the ball more durable and his BABIP is at a profession excessive, his manufacturing on balls in play remains to be a methods off from the place it was in 2021.

Once more, this isn’t essentially a foul factor; strolling extra and placing out much less has to this point made this a worthwhile tradeoff. Nevertheless it’s value exploring why India’s newfound exit velocity hasn’t translated into as a lot energy as we’d count on. He’s presently operating a .153 ISO, nearer to the mark he put up final 12 months than the .190 he posted in 2021. His barrel price is likewise between his 2021 and ’22 figures, and his HR/FB is at a profession low.

The primary downside is that the lion’s share of the additional EV has come on groundballs, quite than the road drives and fly balls that may do actual harm:

The opposite concern is within the backside proper nook of that chart. Though India’s EV on air balls is greater than it was in 2021, his xwOBA remains to be 76 factors worse. That’s largely as a result of he’s pulling these balls simply 33% of the time, far under his profession price of 43%. Though it helps that he performs in a small ballpark, he doesn’t possess the sort of energy that can let him spray the ball to all fields for extra-base hits. Check out the place his base hits have fallen this season, courtesy of Baseball Savant:

Throughout India’s three years within the huge leagues, simply 16% of his extra-base hits and 9% of his dwelling runs have gone to the alternative subject. He wants to tug his balls within the air as a way to maximize their worth. That’s extra true than ever this 12 months, as a result of when you solely take a cursory have a look at his Statcast numbers, you’re more likely to get the flawed impression.

The 2023 version of Jonathan India is a strolling commercial for the significance of Ninety fifth-percentile exit velocity. Say you’re a coach and you need to decide between two gamers with a mean exit velocity of 90 mph. One hits the ball 90 mph each single time; the opposite hits it 110 mph half of the time and 70 mph the opposite half of the time. You’re going to need the second participant, the one with the Ninety fifth-percentile EV of 110 mph. All these 110s will greater than make up for the 70s.

In the intervening time, India is veering nearer to the primary participant within the Parable of the Ninety fifth Percentile Exit Velocity. Whereas his hard-hit price is greater than it’s ever been, he’s largely achieved that by avoiding mis-hits: 28% of his batted balls have been under 85 mph, in comparison with 38% in 2021 and 45% in ’22. That’s nice, nevertheless it’s masking the truth that he hasn’t but accessed his highest gear. The truth is, regardless of this current energy surge, his hardest-hit ball of the 12 months is 107.9 mph, a far cry from the 110.2 and 111.3 he maxed out at in 2021 and ’22, respectively. With apologies to Jonah Heim and Anthony Rendon, he’s certainly one of simply three gamers with a mean EV over 90 mph and a max EV below 108. And his Ninety fifth-percentile EV? It’s the bottom it’s ever been:

If the highest of India’s energy scale actually has dropped by 2 or 3 mph — and after 105 batted ball occasions, that’s not an unreasonable query to ask — it will symbolize a major change. I can solely supply hypothesis as to the explanation he hasn’t but approached his earlier heights. Possibly it’s a facet impact of his extra passive method. Possibly it has to do with the truth that he’s returned to the batting stance that he used for many of the 2021 season (although I don’t personally subscribe to that notion, as he simply tends to tinker along with his stance so much). One other attainable issue is that after bulking up earlier than the 2022 season, he determined to slim down throughout this offseason. India mentioned coming into camp that he had misplaced 10 kilos and gained 3 mph of dash pace in an effort to extend his defensive vary. Statcast truly has his dash pace barely down, although his baserunning and defensive metrics are improved. It’s attainable that chopping some weight may have price him a little bit of energy, however once more, that’s merely hypothesis.

For an article that’s purported to be about India having an ideal 12 months, we’ve been spending quite a lot of time on the issues that aren’t working, so let’s finish on a optimistic word. To this point, this new, extra affected person model of India is actually seeing outcomes. The improved on-base means has been definitely worth the lowered energy output. If he manages to put off a couple of extra sinkers or to get extra of his hard-hit balls within the air, or possibly if these two or three ticks of exit velocity that he misplaced flip up in between the sofa cushions on Tuesday, he may hit a complete new gear, or no less than have a greater probability of sustaining his present degree of manufacturing.

As issues stand proper now, India is on the level the place when you squint, his profile begins to look a bit like Alex Bregman’s. Whereas India’s improved plate self-discipline and get in touch with means nonetheless can’t match Bregman’s, that are actually elite, he’s following the Bregman playbook of constructing constant laborious contact regardless of middling uncooked energy. Each gamers get the majority of their manufacturing by pulling the ball, and each function a ton of doubles ripped down the left subject line. The most important distinction is that Bregman has leaned into that profile and mastered the artwork of lifting the ball into left to reap the benefits of his ballpark’s batter-friendly dimensions.

Lastly, let’s do not forget that it’s nonetheless early. I began writing this text on Thursday, when India’s wRC+ was 105. Over the weekend, he raised it 25 factors, going 8-for-15 with two dwelling runs and two doubles. On Sunday, on the actual second that I used to be typing the paragraph about how India wants to tug the ball within the air as a way to maximize his energy, he hit his second consecutive extra-base hit of the day to proper subject. So possibly I’m flawed about that one. That’s why they play the video games.