The definitive guide to why Malcolm Brogdon should win 6th Man of the Year over Immanuel Quickley

Both Malcolm Brogdon or Immanuel Quickley would make a high quality alternative for Sixth Man of the 12 months.

However Malcolm Brogdon ought to win.

Earlier than I tackle their candidacies, I wish to dismiss one argument firstly. IQ has began nineteen video games, and his stats in these video games considerably enhance his season averages. He’s averaging 22.6 factors, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in begins, markedly larger than his season common in all classes.

I’ll be blunt, I don’t care. A part of a sixth man’s job is filling in as a starter when he’s requested to. IQ thriving as a starter is extra of a knock on Tom Thibodeau’s insistence on taking part in RJ Barrett large minutes than it’s on IQ’s sixth man argument. Right here’s the necessary half, even when you embody Quickley’s stats as a starter, Malcolm Brogdon nonetheless deserves the award over him.

First, we’ll have a look at the normal stats and a few of our extra mundane superior metrics (help proportion, true capturing proportion, and so on.). Then we head off to the land of all-in-one influence metrics.

Conventional Metrics
Malcolm Brogdon – 26 minutes, 14.9 pts, 4.2 rebs, 3.7 asts, 1.5 tovs, 48.4/44.4/87 capturing splits
Immanuel Quickely – 28.9 minutes, 14.9 pts, 4.2 rebs, 3.2 asts, 1.2 tovs, 44.8/37.0/81.9

On first blush, there’s completely no argument for Immanuel Quickley over Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon equals IQ in factors and rebounds regardless of taking part in fewer minutes, averages extra assists, and dwarfs him in capturing effectivity. If we have a look at a number of the much less conventional offensive numbers, Brogdon’s hole widens. Quickley’s 53.7% Efficient Area Objective Proportion and 57.8% True Taking pictures proportion are each 3.7% decrease than Brogdon’s. For reference, Brogdon’s effectivity is roughly equal to Donovan Mitchell, whereas Quickley’s is within the Patrick Williams vary.

On the playmaking entrance, not a specific energy of Brogdon’s recreation albeit not a weak point both, he has a reasonably clear edge. Averaging a half of an help extra in three much less minutes and the next proportion of his possessions finish in assists. Brogdon’s aggressive type of repeated straight-line drives wears defenses down and opens up passing lanes for straightforward kick outs. He drives 11.3 occasions per recreation to Quickley’s 8.9 (nonetheless a really stable quantity, particularly for a smaller guard), and assists on 11.9% of these drives to Quickley’s 9.8%. It’s value noting, when Quickley does drive to attain, he’s extra environment friendly. He additionally turns it over much less and has a greater help to turnover ratio (2.79 to Brogdon’s 2.53). Quickley is way from a foul offensive participant, however Brogdon has merely had a considerably higher offensive season than IQ.

I’ll contact on defensive stats briefly as a result of the following part will concentrate on that in additional depth, and I’m undecided these conventional stats actually illustrate how a lot better Quickley is defensively (it’s so much). Quickley averages 1 steal a recreation to Brogdon’s 0.7. Opponent subject objective proportion is 1.9% worse on photographs IQ contests, whereas Brogdon has the magical skill to make opponents shoot higher than their common, 1.3% higher to be exact. Simply as there’s no argument for IQ over Brogdon on the offensive aspect of the ball, the inverse is true defensively within the conventional metrics.

Picture by Maddie Meyer/Getty Photographs

Superior Metrics

If you’re inclined to argue on Quickley’s behalf, that is the place you’ll begin. He has a big lead on Brogdon in nearly each all-in-one influence metric that’s publicly obtainable, lots of them important. He leads in 538’s RAPTOR 3.4 to 1.8, ESPN’s RPM 1.25 to -2.77, BBall Index’s LEBRON 2.03 to .50.

Contemplating Brogdon’s sizeable hole on the offensive aspect of the ball, it’s clear that Quickley’s flying previous Brogdon in these metrics primarily as a result of protection (though there’s some weirdness in RAPTOR that charges Brogdon as a detrimental offensive participant and a constructive defensive participant, which I’ve issue rationalizing). Right here’s the factor, I absolutely consider Quickley is a greater defensive participant, however I feel there’s some noise within the information that’s overstating his influence. Permit me to elucidate.

Brogdon and Quickley share a considerably related internet ranking (utilizing pbp stats), 4.65 and 6.46 respectively. A pleasant edge to Quickley actually, however each within the realm of productive useful participant. Each the Celtics’ offensive and defensive rankings worsen when Brogdon comes on. About 2.9 factors per 100 on offense and about .9 on protection. This shouldn’t be surprising — he often enters the sport for Jayson Tatum who supercharges the Cs on each ends.

Now let’s flip to Quickley. When he enters the sport, the Knicks offense falls by 3.6 factors per 100 possessions, whereas the protection goes berserk. With IQ on, the Knicks protection will get 12.2 factors per 100 higher. That’s completely, thoughts numbingly insane. For reference, the Celtics’ protection will get about 4.7 factors per 100 higher when Rob Williams performs. That’s the same quantity to the odds-on favourite for Defensive Participant of the 12 months, Jaren Jackson Jr., who improves the Grizzlies’ protection about 4.8 factors per 100 when he’s on the courtroom.

Forgive me if I feel there’s some noise in that quantity for Immanuel Quickley, until you suppose he’s legitimately having one of many biggest defensive seasons ever. I simply don’t purchase {that a} level guard can probably enhance a protection by that a lot. It’s primarily unprecedented. A part of the explanation? Quickley typically enters the sport when RJ Barrett leaves, and Barrett has been probably the most damaging excessive minute gamers within the league, if not essentially the most damaging. Right here’s an unbelievable thread on the RJ phenomenon.

If we have a look at RJ’s on/off numbers, the Knicks protection will get 9.2 factors per 100 possessions when he’s not on the ground, no matter who replaces him. A part of why Quickley grades out so effectively in these influence metrics completely is as a result of he’s a really, superb participant on either side of the ball. One other half is that he’s merely not RJ Barrett.

I perceive that each one of those superior influence metrics try to manage on/off metrics and remedy for the teammate downside, or on this case, the RJ Barrett downside. However they’re removed from excellent. Simply give a fast look and you will note some unusual names within the top-20 gamers. I’m sorry Bulls followers, I simply don’t suppose Alex Caruso is the eleventh greatest participant within the league, even when RAPTOR says so.

Quickley’s influence is actual, however the numbers are so outrageous, they’re virtually actually skewed in his favor simply by advantage of who he replaces. Brogdon clearly suffers from the other phenomenon since Tatum has lengthy been an on/off, internet ranking, and influence metric darling. This yr is not any exception.

Which brings us again to Brogdon and the Sixth Man of the 12 months Award. Like I stated on the prime, both man is a deserving winner, it’s simply that the numbers you’re compelled to depend on to argue in IQ’s favor undergo from an intangibility not current in Brogdon’s case.

And but, I can’t assist however be drawn to Brogdon’s candidacy for a special set of intangible causes. The final time Malcolm Brogdon began fewer video games than he got here off the bench was his second season in Milwaukee the place he began 20 video games and got here on as a sub in 28. From that time on, Malcolm Brogdon has been a nailed on, borderline All-Star starter within the NBA. Noah Vonleh has began extra video games for the Celtics this yr. Even nonetheless, Brogdon selected to return to Boston, regardless of being in his prime and figuring out he was unlikely to start out. Brogdon stated it higher than I may in a latest interview:

“Coming off the bench, it may be a problem at occasions, to be trustworthy. Having a profession the place you begin your complete profession and then you definately come off the bench, there are nights the place you gotta suck it up,” Brogdon stated.

“You’re not going to attain as a lot or play as a lot, however I feel that’s what makes an excellent group, having guys which can be ready to try this, having guys which can be in a position to sacrifice.”

Like an avid golfer who turns into a dad and realizes his Saturdays are about to look so much completely different, Malcolm Brogdon entered his 30s able to sacrifice. To an informal observer, it virtually actually appears to be like like the precise resolution, and it most likely is, however that doesn’t make it any simpler. So for that motive, give me Malcolm Brogdon.