At This Point in Giancarlo Stanton’s Career, Health Is the Main Barrier to Success

In baseball, there are two sounds that may’t fairly be matched: the pop of the catcher’s glove after a scorching fastball, and the sound of the ball being crushed by the meaty a part of the barrel. Nobody is extra acquainted with the latter than Giancarlo Stanton. Within the Statcast period, no hitter has persistently hit the ball as exhausting as he has; his otherworldly bat pace results in among the most spectacular batted balls you’ll ever see.

Stanton’s outlier skill to hit the ball prefer it got here out of a rocket will all the time elevate his ground as a hitter in comparison with the typical participant. In the event you hit the ball like he does, even pounding it on the bottom isn’t an enormous concern. That doesn’t imply Stanton is impervious, nonetheless. You’ll be able to’t publish an exit velocity in the event you swing by way of the ball, and if he had been to start out making much less contact, it could be an issue. In 2022, Stanton’s hit device seemed nearer to that of Joey Gallo than Aaron Judge, which led to his worst full season in pinstripes by wRC+, and maybe since his rookie 12 months all the way in which again in 2010. His .211 batting common and .293 on-base proportion had been each greater than 50 factors off his profession marks. And whereas that decline may very well be partially attributed to Stanton getting into his mid-30s, that’s not the one issue at play right here.

Stanton’s season was marred by harm. He consistently handled decrease leg accidents; ankle tendinitis, a calf pressure, and a bruised foot all messed with the way in which he interacted with the bottom, and it confirmed on the plate. As a rotational athlete, your skill to exude drive into the bottom is instantly tied to the steadiness of your decrease half. When a hitter’s stride foot lands, it sends vitality into the bottom that shoots again up for the decrease half to soak up. In the event you stomp on the bottom, there’s a wave of vitality that recoils by way of your legs and hips that it’s essential to management if you wish to switch that vitality into your swing. Any hitter’s skill to do that could be disrupted by a single decrease leg harm. That solely worsens if you take care of accidents on either side of your physique like Stanton did, which may result in a number of vitality leakages that fully throw off your swing. For Stanton, these will be seen within the atypical motion of his toes earlier than and through his rotation.

I’m going to indicate you precisely what that seemed like, however first, let’s element among the methods Stanton struggled relative to earlier seasons from a statistical perspective:

Stanton’s drop in efficiency will be seen in his elevated whiff price within the zone and common efficiency towards fastballs. A common rule of thumb is that nice hitters crush fastballs. If a pitcher makes a mistake with a heater in the course of the plate, they’ll pay the value. That turns into tougher as velocity rises, however that’s the place the good hitters set themselves other than good hitters. Stanton has by no means been one to be overwhelmed by excessive velocity; the truth is, he’s all the time been nicely above league common. However his accidents compromised his connection to the bottom, and consequently, he struggled. The desk beneath particulars his efficiency towards high-velocity fastballs as a Yankee:

Stanton has handled smooth tissue accidents for his whole tenure in New York, however he has nonetheless hit when he’s been on the sphere, together with towards high-velocity fastballs. However his .294 wOBA towards this group of pitches was .017 factors beneath league common and an enormous drop from his .359 mark in 2021, which was .049 factors increased than the league common. This regression will be zoomed out on a extra macro stage, too. Stanton’s efficiency within the coronary heart of the zone towards fastballs additionally modified from 2021 to ’22:

There are just a few takeaways from this. First, the drop in xwOBA in 2022 tells us Stanton’s anticipated stats had been considerably worse than earlier years on fastballs within the coronary heart. He managed to maintain his wOBA comparatively excessive, nevertheless it looks like there was a minimum of a little bit little bit of luck concerned. Subsequent, once we focus in on in-zone fastballs when Stanton was behind within the rely, you’ll be able to see a precipitous drop from earlier seasons. Like several nice hitter, he would make pitchers pay for errors within the coronary heart of the plate even when he was behind within the rely, however that wasn’t the case final 12 months. And whereas he’s naturally a guess hitter, he appeared to rely too closely on these guesses, and it resulted in lots of poor at-bats. A hitter of this caliber lacking fastballs within the coronary heart of the zone this a lot when behind within the rely is a tell-tale signal that one thing is incorrect. These are the forms of stuff you do when your physique feels completely different and you’ll’t get to pitches you’ve all the time crushed.

To know what I’m speaking about, let’s run by way of a sequence the place Stanton simply seemed off. This at-bat is from mid-July, after he suffered a proper calf pressure in late Might and proper across the time when he started lacking time because of his left ankle. He began 2–0 on two fastballs out of the zone, then acquired three straight within the coronary heart of the plate:

Pitch 3 (2–0 rely)

Pitch 4 (2–1 rely)

Pitch 5 (2–2 rely)

It is a good in-game instance of him letting fastball errors go by. One of many causes Stanton has been such an unbelievable hitter for thus lengthy is that he creates his bat pace with minimal motion; his swing is shockingly quiet for any person so massive. On his two swings in benefit counts, his toes are dancing, particularly within the first. He has a pure scissor kick from a closed stride, nevertheless it seems like he’s shedding grip on the bottom earlier than his swing will get going. Each hitter guesses or cheats sooner or later in an at-bat, but when they’re incorrect, they will often battle off a center-cut pitch with two strikes. Regardless of one other fastball within the coronary heart of the plate, Stanton couldn’t get a swing off. When your decrease half isn’t correctly linked to the bottom, it may be troublesome to rotate! As he took the pitch down the plate, you’ll be able to see him enter excessive ankle eversion (ankle collapses inwards). Get up and attempt to take a swing like that. Not so snug, proper?

For example that time additional, listed here are just a few swings from earlier within the season when Stanton’s toes are close to impartial by way of your complete swing.

Might 12

Might 16

Might 21

Every of those swings resulted in batted balls with exit velocities over 114 mph, a typical vary for Stanton. However extra importantly, his actions had been quiet from his knees down. Relative to the swings towards Cincinnati, there isn’t a exaggeration of motion in anyone a part of his decrease legs. In his dwelling run swing towards Dylan Stop, he makes use of his typical toe faucet on his entrance foot and delicate scissor kick within the again foot to remain closed. There isn’t any again foot slide like in July. These are totally wholesome swings the place Stanton maintains his connection to the bottom from the start of rotation by way of contact.

Sadly for him, the compensations he confirmed in July solely acquired worse by way of the tip of the 12 months.

August 29

September 24

October 1

From August on, Stanton was wholesome sufficient to be on the sphere as different Yankees hitters confronted accidents of their very own, however he was clearly not near 100%. These three swings can both be tied to his injured left ankle being unable to remain linked to the bottom, or to his again foot not being sturdy sufficient to compensate for the vitality leakage in his lead foot/ankle. Within the first swing, his again leg slides means out as a result of it’s trying to do all of the work for his physique. The second swing is weeks later; he made an adjustment however nonetheless leaked into the identical early ankle eversion in his again leg that we noticed in July. It’s not inconceivable to hit like this, however if you’re fighting stabilization, it’s not perfect.

His swing in early August is probably the most excessive instance of how early ankle eversion can influence your decrease half. It precipitated him to lose his again leg completely, alongside along with his posture. These actions minimize off his swing path, resulting in his barrel being unable to cowl the outer half. In the event you return to Stanton’s swings from earlier within the 12 months, you’ll be able to see the most effective ones all include athletic, straight posture. He’s an enormous dude, and to have success, he wants a secure base to regulate his physique. That is apparent for any athlete, however as gamers age and lose a little bit little bit of baseball ability, well being and physique management turn into increasingly necessary. I’m not essentially saying Stanton is shedding ability; his first two months present that he appears to be okay. However he is perhaps getting into a stage of his profession the place he has much less room for error and accidents like this compromise his expertise and expose the largest gap in his profile: swing and miss. I’m positive Stanton will take heed to this heading into 2023.

Accidents have plagued Stanton for some time now, however as he heads into his mid-30s, well being is extra necessary than it’s ever been. His swing wants to remain quiet to profit from his outlier energy. None of those accidents had been main long-term issues, however they had been sufficient to compromise his swing and efficiency. Assuming he enters 2023 totally recovered from these points, there isn’t a query in my thoughts he nonetheless has the abilities to ship a 130–140 wRC+ season every year. However he’ll have to be aware of how any harm impacts his swing as he enters the latter half of his profession.