Twins trade AL batting champ to Marlins in four-player deal

Months of rumors concerning the Marlins rotation lastly resulted in some motion. The Marlins traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, high infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in change for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per bulletins from each golf equipment.

The core of the commerce, for speedy functions, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez, the reigning American League batting champion, for 2 seasons of Lopez, who’ll instantly be an improve to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his personal as a high quality massive league starter over the previous three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout fee, a 7% stroll fee and a 47.4% ground-ball fee in 340 innings.

Lopez has handled some damage points in his profession, thrice touchdown on the injured record as a consequence of shoulder strains. The newest of these three accidents got here in the summertime of 2021 and worn out greater than two months of Lopez’s season, however he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching a career-high 180 innings over the lifetime of 32 begins. Final 12 months’s efficiency netted Lopez a nonetheless eminently reasonably priced $5.45M wage. He’ll be due yet one more elevate in arbitration within the 2023-24 offseason earlier than reaching free company following the 2024 marketing campaign — barring an extension, after all.

The newly acquired Lopez will step in to a Twins rotation that additionally contains Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Although it was simple to wonder if Lopez may push Kenta Maeda right into a bullpen position after he missed the whole 2022 season on the heels of inner brace surgical procedure on his proper elbow in Septempber 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will stay a starter.

The likeliest odd man out of typical five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, however the towering righty has pitched to a pointy 3.82 ERA in 31 begins to start his massive league profession — together with a 3.21 mark in 56 innings final season. (Ober missed greater than three months as a consequence of a extreme groin pressure.) Alternatively, the Twins may look to deploy a six-man rotation that might assist them handle Maeda’s workload and hopefully result in higher well being amongst a beginning employees that was typically hampered by damage all through the 2022 season.

In the meantime, with Arraez now subtracted from the lineup, the Twins lose their leadoff man, considered one of their greatest hitters and considered one of their main choices at first base and designated hitter. His departure probably opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to fit in as the first first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round decide, ranked as one of many sport’s 10 to fifteen greatest prospects previous to his massive league debut, however he’s now undergone wrist surgical procedure in every of the previous two seasons, derailing the begin to his profession. There’s fairly a little bit of upside there however fairly a little bit of danger as effectively. It’s all the time attainable the Twins look so as to add one other established hitter to assist soften the blow of shedding Arraez, however the first base and DH markets in free company have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they select, it’ll probably have to return by way of one other commerce.

On the opposite facet of the swap, the Marlins get a left-handed bat to assist steadiness out a closely right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami maybe probably the most impeccable bat-to-ball expertise in Main League Baseball, having fanned in simply 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old again in 2019. He doesn’t stroll at an particularly excessive clip, however Arraez’s mark of 8.7% remains to be larger than each his strikeout fee and this previous season’s league-average 8.2% stroll fee.

Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight dwelling runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter within the main leagues. His contact expertise are second to none and can probably all the time permit him to hit for a excessive common, however the remainder of his recreation is quite restricted. Arraez is missing in energy, evidenced by a profession .096 ISO (slugging minus batting common), and his common dash pace is beneath common, per Statcast.

Whereas he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as one thing of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left subject, delivering lackluster defensive grades at every of these spots aside from first base. That would effectively be his new place in Miami given the presence of Jazz Chisholm Jr. at second base and Jean Segura at third base.

Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying damage points on his resume. A torn ACL throughout his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured record thrice since Opening Day 2020 as a consequence of knee troubles as effectively. Arraez additionally spent every week on the seven-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed practically three weeks of that season as a consequence of a shoulder pressure.

Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Tremendous Two participant, nonetheless has two years of arbitration remaining past the present marketing campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to phrases on an settlement previous to final week’s deadline to change arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5M mark, whereas Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1M submission. Now that he’s with a brand new group, it’s attainable Arraez may comply with a one-year deal someplace between these factors or even perhaps talk about a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his wage north of $10M by his remaining 12 months of membership management, in 2025.

For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a beginning 5 of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with a number of intriguing arms nonetheless ready within the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the group’s rotation depth is powerful sufficient to face up to the lack of Lopez.

There’s little doubting, nonetheless, that the protection will undergo from each the acquisition of Arraez and final week’s commerce of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins will now must play both Chisholm, Segura or Joey Wendle at shortstop, and the set up of Arraez at first base pushes Garrett Cooper to designated hitter or an outfield nook. If Cooper is the go-to choice at DH, that’ll thrust Jorge Soler again into the outfield. All indicators then level to somebody like Bryan De La Cruz, who’s greatest suited to nook work, once more being miscast as a middle fielder. General, the gambit of dropping Rojas and including Arraez within the identify of balancing and bettering the lineup may have the unlucky facet impact of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive membership to one of many worst within the Nationwide League.

The prospects within the deal are each long-term performs for the Twins, making them considerably curious secondary items for a group that’s clearly bidding for speedy competition within the wake of the beautiful deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That stated, current trades for Mahle, Grey and others have thinned out the Twins system in appreciable vogue, so backfilling with some youthful expertise helps straddle the road of constructing for each the brief and long run.

Salas is especially well-regarded, initially signing for a $2.8M bonus and at present rating fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop in the interim, although BA’s scouting report suggests a transfer to 3rd base is feasible, relying on the extent to which his still-lean body grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 in opposition to vastly older competitors in 2022, splitting the 12 months between Class-A and Class-A Superior regardless of solely turning 19 this previous April.

Salas related on 9 homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 video games. Scouting reviews on Salas tout his work ethic, his really feel for contact and the potential for at the very least common energy. He’ll instantly change into one of many Twins’ high general prospects, however he received’t add any worth to their 2023 membership (except for maybe giving them extra flexibility relating to negotiating extra trades).

Chourio is even youthful, having simply signed as an beginner out of Venezuela one 12 months and 5 days in the past. Regardless of taking part in the season at simply 17 years previous, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer time League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, 9 doubles, 19 steals and practically as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.

Chourio received’t even flip 18 till Could, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a reliable massive league chance, and it’s fairly probably that he’s even additional off than that. Nonetheless, there’s loads to love about him regardless of the dearth of proximity to the majors. Along with his eye-catching professional debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s bodily projection, robust throwing arm, heart subject instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ worldwide signing class final 12 months.

This commerce places an finish to months of hypothesis and rumors concerning Lopez, who lastly is aware of the place he’ll spend at the very least the subsequent two seasons of his profession. It stays attainable, given Miami’s depth and the wants the Marlins have elsewhere on the roster, that they may additional faucet in to that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an more and more questionable protection. On the Twins’ finish of issues, Lopez isn’t clearly higher than any of their in-house choices, however they’ll add one other mid-rotation arm to a beginning employees deep in comparable abilities, serving to to safeguard in opposition to damage and including some stability past the present season, when every of Grey, Mahle and Maeda can change into free brokers. They’ll additionally restock a farm system that’s been taxed by current trades, however the swap feels extra like a subsequent step than the ultimate piece of an offseason puzzle.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the 2 groups had been progressing towards a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was accomplished. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the 2 prospects going again to Minnesota (Twitter links).