Andrew McCutchen Sets Sail for Home

After 5 seasons and 4 totally different groups, Andrew McCutchen is returning to the ballclub the place all of it started. On Friday morning, the 36-year-old outfielder got here to phrases with the Pirates on a one-year, $5 million contract. The deal is pending a bodily, however the official hype video is already up on Twitter.

McCutchen was exceptional in his first stint with Pittsburgh, placing up 46 WAR from 2009 to ’17. Solely 5 gamers had been extra precious throughout these 9 years: Mike Trout, Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and Robinson Canó. McCutchen hit 203 residence runs, stole 171 bases, and led the Pirates to a few straight postseason appearances, together with their first in additional than 20 years. He’s the perfect participant within the historical past of PNC Park and the best Pirate since Barry Bonds.

McCutchen joins a Pirates staff that isn’t too totally different from the one he left. The 2017 squad completed fourth within the NL Central with a 75–87 (.463) document. One other fourth-place end feels about proper for 2023, and that’s exactly how our projections see issues shaking out:

Moreover, the present-day Pirates is likely to be seeking to deal one other star outfielder: Bryan Reynolds, who got here to Pittsburgh from San Francisco in trade for McCutchen, has reportedly requested a trade amid irritating extension negotiations. The Pirates have expressed a want to carry onto their younger star, however nobody could be all that stunned to see Reynolds in a brand new uniform by the commerce deadline.

Gone are the times when McCutchen was an elite baserunner and even an sufficient defender. At current, his solely job is to hit, and sadly, he was beneath common on the plate in 2022 for the primary time, ending with a 98 wRC+ because of career-worst energy numbers, together with a .385 SLG and .149 ISO. Solely 31.4% of his batted balls had been categorised as hard-hit (per SIS), a tick above league common however properly beneath his profession norm. The decline in his hard-hit price was most evident on fly balls, which usually tend to fall for additional bases than floor balls or line drives:

General, hard-hit fly balls accounted for 12.7% of McCutchen’s whole balls in play final season and 16.5% the 12 months earlier than. He made up the distinction with extra medium-hit flies, and the drop-off from exhausting to medium-hit fly balls is steep. Exhausting-hit fly balls had a 487 wRC+ and 1.150 ISO final season; medium-hit flies had a -56 wRC+ and .050 ISO.

On the brilliant aspect, McCutchen continued to make loads of “extra-hard” contact on fly balls. Statcast defines a hard-hit ball as any batted ball with an exit velocity over 95 mph. It’s a helpful metric, but it surely’s additionally necessary to keep in mind that not all hard-hit balls are equally harmful; there’s an enormous distinction between a 95-mph exit velocity and a 100-mph exit velocity. Subsequently, I like to make use of the time period “extra-hard” contact to discuss with balls hit over 100 mph. And by this explicit metric, McCutchen didn’t decline in any respect in 2022. His Statcast hard-hit% on fly balls dropped by 13%, however his extra-hard-hit% on fly balls stayed remarkably constant:

Thus, all of the lacking hard-hit fly balls had been within the 95–99.9-mph vary. That isn’t nothing — fly balls in that vary had a .355 wOBA final season — but it surely’s much more necessary to crush balls over 100 mph. Further-hard-hit fly balls had a wOBA of 1.273 in 2022.

The opposite massive factor lacking from McCutchen’s sport was his elite stroll price. He drew free passes at a decent 9.8% tempo (118 BB%+), however that pales compared to his 13.7% stroll price (153 BB%+) from 2018 to ’21. He confirmed a terrific eye on the plate, shedding pitches outdoors the zone, however he swung greater than ordinary at pitches in the zone, taking a hack at 71.6% of pitches over the plate, considerably increased than his 63.5% z-swing price from 2018 to ’21. Merely put, swinging extra means strolling much less.

Regardless of his falling stroll price, McCutchen nonetheless has the most effective eyes within the sport. His chase price ranked within the 92nd percentile (in a great way), and as I stated, he is aware of higher than nearly anyone when to maintain the bat on his shoulders. He was value +7 runs on takes within the shadow zone final season, the fifth-best mark within the league. One other nice instance of his self-discipline was the distinction in his strategy towards sliders and curveballs. McCutchen is nice towards curves and horrible towards sliders, as has been the case for a lot of his profession. Accordingly, he was more likely to chase on a curveball and lay off a slider outdoors the zone. He selected to chase at simply 17.8% of sliders in comparison with 23.5% of curves, as a result of chasing at sliders wasn’t going to be well worth the danger. McCutchen’s stroll numbers will proceed to say no as his bat turns into much less of a risk, however his elite plate self-discipline ought to assist him stay productive as he ages.

Certainly, there’s so much to love about McCutchen regardless of his superior age. He’s a surprisingly quick runner, and though his baserunning metrics haven’t been spectacular these days, his Ninetieth-percentile dash velocity says good issues about his athleticism and skill to defy the ageing curve. As well as, he’s nonetheless a serious risk towards left-handed pitching, posting a 169 wRC+ towards southpaws in 2021 and a 152 wRC+ the 12 months earlier than. That quantity dropped to 106 final season, but it surely was closely influenced by a career-worst .248 BABIP. His .214 ISO and 10.3% stroll price towards left-handers paint a way more optimistic image, and odds are that McCutchen will proceed punishing opposite-handed pitching subsequent season.

Much more promising are McCutchen’s numbers over the ultimate 4 months of the 2022 season. He was dreadful in April and Might, however from June 3 by October 3, he posted a 114 wRC+ in 408 PA. His stroll price was 11.5%, his remoted energy was .171, and he succeeded towards each lefties (129 wRC+) and righties (109 wRC+). These numbers are held up by a very sturdy June and July, besides, it’s a very good signal that he has that degree of manufacturing in him over 400-plus PA. His energy and plate self-discipline expertise may not have declined as a lot because the full-season stats recommend:

The Pirates have been surprisingly energetic this winter, signing Carlos Santana, Rich Hill, Austin Hedges, Jarlín García, and Vince Velasquez, and buying and selling for Ji-Man Choi and Connor Joe. The result’s a staff that ought to be extra watchable in 2023. McCutchen is one other transfer to that finish. Not solely is he an area hero and pleasant clubhouse presence, however he’s additionally a gifted ballplayer who makes Pittsburgh a greater staff.

After two straight 100-loss seasons, the Pirates have improved from dreadful to mediocre, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. What’s extra, contemplating the state of the NL Central, there’s a non-zero probability they might contend if all their younger gamers take one other step ahead. It’s unlikely, but when the celebs align for the Pirates in 2023, it will likely be fairly superb that Andrew McCutchen was alongside for the trip.