Eyeing a Ring, Nelson Cruz Joins Loaded Padres Lineup

Nelson Cruz desires his ring. Since watching a World Sequence slip proper over the webbing of his glove in 2011, he has performed 11 extra seasons, properly previous his fortieth birthday, in pursuit of that final purpose. On Wednesday, the 42-year-old agreed to sign on for his nineteenth main league season along with his eighth crew, heading to San Diego to hitch a enjoyable Padres crew seeking to discover its approach even deeper into the playoffs after reaching its first NLCS of the twenty first century final yr. The deal, value $1 million over one year, pending a bodily, reunites Cruz with former Rangers assistant common supervisor A.J. Preller in addition to former teammates and Dominican countrymen Manny Machado and Juan Soto, who he’ll swimsuit up with first as common manager-player for the Dominican World Baseball Basic crew in March.

Cruz may simply have referred to as it a profession by this level. After establishing himself as a giant league bat in Texas, he has loved a affluent second act as considerably of a slugging journeyman, representing 4 completely different groups within the All-Star Sport since his age-32 season. Of his 459 profession house runs, 382 have come since his thirtieth birthday, trailing solely Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Rafael Palmeiro, and Hank Aaron. Previous to final yr, hadn’t posted a wOBA underneath .340 or wRC+ underneath 123 in practically a decade.

After which got here 2022, the kind of yr that may chase most veterans into retirement. In 124 video games as the first DH for the 55-win Nationals, Cruz’s prodigious energy disappeared; his slugging proportion went from .497 to .337, his ISO dipped from .232 to .103, and his wRC+ fell from 123 to 85. Other than a 22-game stretch in late Could and early June throughout which he regarded like prime (or 38-year-old) Cruz, hitting .418/.483/.633 in 90 plate appearances, he wasn’t capable of supply a lot worth on the plate. He battled inflammation in his left eye that was obscuring his imaginative and prescient, which he stated had been a worsening downside for a couple of yr and a half. He was finally shut down in mid-September, however as an alternative of calling it quits, he had his eye surgically repaired and acquired again to work, most recently alongside 2022 AL batting champ Luis Arraez.

It’s exhausting to know the way a lot Cruz’s 2022 woes will be blamed on the attention difficulty and the way a lot has to do with him being 42 years outdated. He particularly pointed to points selecting up spin, which might have damage his potential to establish pitches and definitely may have contributed to a weakened contact profile, from a 2-mph drop in common exit velocity to a four-point dip in barrel fee. He struggled mightily towards breaking pitches (.256 wOBA) and offspeed (.224). And his swinging strike proportion climbed to fifteen.0%, his highest since 2009. However these items may even have been introduced on by a traditional growing older curve and misplaced bat velocity. (Statcast is still getting started monitoring that.) It’s value noting that his hassle making exhausting contact worsened comparatively rapidly over the second half of 2021 and ’22:

Whether or not Cruz has a lot left within the tank to present is the $1 million query. Regardless of his depleting exhausting contact, he nonetheless ranked above the eightieth percentile in common exit velocity (84th) and HardHit% (81st) and sixtieth in Barrel%. His xwOBA of .320 was 79th amongst 130 qualifiers, and his .292 wOBA was 117th. He was fairly unfortunate when he did hit the ball exhausting: on 31 barrels, he hit simply .516 with a .913 wOBA, in comparison with league averages of .728 and 1.289. In 2023, he’ll additionally count on extra possibilities towards lefties, off of whom he managed to submit a .323 wOBA and 106 wRC+ within the down yr. Steamer expects he’ll be capable of rebound to round a .316 wOBA and a 105 wRC+ — not what any playoff crew is in search of from a delegated hitter, however a very good chunk higher than what the Nats noticed in 2022.

Skilled hitter that he’s, Cruz additionally made an necessary adjustment to his strategy in response to his points. As most of his pull-side contact was turning into rolled-over floor balls as an alternative of exhausting hits, he began to make use of the entire area, driving balls to the other area at a fee of 28.6%, his highest since 2012. He hit .388 with a .378 wOBA on contact to the fitting aspect, in comparison with .275 with a .319 wOBA to his pull aspect. Check out the success he had going the opposite approach:

It’s exhausting to think about {that a} hitter at Cruz’s age will development up anymore, however San Diego can even be asking a lot much less of him than did Washington, the place he hit in the course of the order virtually day by day. With the Padres, he joins a deep lineup headlined by Machado, Soto, and free-agent acquisition Xander Bogaerts, quickly to be joined by one other Dominican celebrity in Fernando Tatis Jr. upon his return from a PED suspension in late April. With shortstops already at quick and third (to not point out second base in Ha-Seong Kim), Tatis will be part of Soto and Trent Grisham within the outfield, leaving left-handed addition Matt Carpenter to share a while within the designated hitter spot with Cruz. Put it this manner: the lineup was already crowded with sufficient expertise that, previous to Cruz approaching board, the Padres have been projected to guide the majors in DH WAR per our depth charts, with Carpenter anticipated to separate many of the plate appearances with Tatis and Soto in alternatives to get the 2 younger superstars off the sphere for 9 innings. (Amusingly sufficient, by including Cruz to the combination, Padres DHs have really fallen to 3rd in projected WAR, as Tatis and Soto will possible stay at their area positions extra.)

Although Carpenter is unlikely to repeat the 217 wRC+ he posted in 154 PA in 2022, he and Cruz may make for a threatening mixture from the designated hitter spot. They received’t be a real platoon; even after Tatis returns, Carpenter will possible spend a while within the nook outfield spots and at first, and others will take some days at DH to get off their toes. However the Padres simply may need sufficient positional versatility to hold on to an growing older designated hitter who initiatives to get round 300 PA, and for $1 million, it’s hardly a high-risk transfer. Contemplating the impact Cruz can have as a veteran leader and pseudo-assistant hitting coach in a clubhouse whose younger stars already look as much as him, it appears properly value Preller’s pocket change to convey him into this group and provides him a shot to go away the sport a champion.