Cubs Finalizing Contract With Dansby Swanson

The Cubs are “very shut” to a cope with shortstop Dansby Swanson, and are anticipated to finalize the deal shortly, NBC Sports activities Chicago’s David Kaplan reviews (via Twitter).  The contract is a seven-year, $177MM deal that features a full no-trade clause, in response to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports activities (Twitter link).  Swanson is represented by Excel Sports activities Administration.

It’s the second-biggest free agent deal in Cubs historical past, second solely to Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM pact from the 2015-16 offseason.  After the Cubs had spent the final couple of seasons slicing payroll and largely shifting into rebuild mode, it’s secure to say that the franchise is firmly planning to compete once more, given the signings of Swanson, Jameson Taillon, and Cody Bellinger this offseason, in addition to the Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman offers final winter.

Rumors have swirled because the summer time that the Cubs have been planning to signal one of many “huge 4” shortstops of the 2022-23 offseason — Swanson, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts.  Some reviews even suggested that Chicago may signal two of the shortstops, with a watch in the direction of shifting one participant to a different place (a la the Rangers inking each Corey Seager and Marcus Semien final winter).  Preliminary reviews indicated that Correa and Bogaerts have been the Cubs’ high choices of the group, however in the course of the Winter Conferences, Swanson started to emerge as “maybe their most sensible goal at shortstop,” within the phrases of The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Because it turned out, all the huge 4 shortstops ended up switching groups, with Swanson the final one to land his subsequent contract.  Turner signed with the Phillies, Bogaerts with the Padres, Correa with the Giants, and now Swanson will head to Wrigleyville to affix the third totally different group of his professional profession.  Drafted first general by the Diamondbacks in 2015, Swanson’s Arizona was restricted to 22 A-ball video games, as he was dealt to the Braves that offseason as a part of a blockbuster five-player swap.

The commerce became infamous for Arizona followers, as Shelby Miller (the first piece headed to the D’Backs) instantly struggled together with his new group, whereas Georgia-born Swanson blossomed together with his hometown Braves.  Success wasn’t fast for Swanson, who hit solely .243/.314/.369 over his first 1229 Main League plate appearances from 2016-18.  Nevertheless, he progressively turned extra productive on the plate, culminating in a 2022 season that noticed him hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 homers over 696 PA, translating to a 116 wRC+.

Swanson additionally hit 27 homers in 2021, bringing some strong energy from the shortstop place.  It could possibly be that Swanson may nonetheless be coming into his prime years as a hitter as he enters his age-29 season, making him an much more intriguing addition as an all-around participant.  Swanson can be a wonderful baserunner and has a really robust defensive resume that features a Gold Glove final season.  The Outs Above Common metric grades Swanson with a +38 complete during the last 5 seasons, and whereas his Defensive Runs Saved (+18) and UZR/150 (+0.4) numbers are a bit of extra inconsistent, Swanson is actually an above-average fielder at a key defensive place.

The Cubs already had a very good defensive shortstop in Nico Hoerner, after all, and but Hoerner’s versatility allowed Chicago to discover a number of choices across the diamond.  With Swanson now taking up at shortstop and Bellinger additionally signed as primarily the on a regular basis heart fielder, it appears like Hoerner shall be spending most of his time at second base.  Between Hoerner and Swanson, the Cubs now have one of many best defensive center infields in baseball, which shall be notably essential in 2023 given the brand new guidelines limiting defensive shifts.

Between Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon, and Brad Boxberger, Chicago has spent a bit of over $265MM on assured free agent offers this offseason.  Even with a projected $181.1MM in payroll for 2023 and a luxurious tax quantity (which is predicated on common annual values) of a bit of over $203.1MM, it appears potential that the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer won’t be executed but.

The Cubs’ Opening Day payroll in 2019 cracked the $203MM mark, so Hoyer might need a minimum of one other $22MM to spend if that previous file complete does symbolize possession’s higher restrict.  Because the Cubs crossed the luxurious tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, it could possibly be that possession may even green-light extra spending a minimum of as much as the present $233MM tax line.  “Clever spending” has been certainly one of Hoyer’s chief descriptions of the Cubs’ spending methods during the last two winters, and membership chairman Tom Ricketts stated firstly of the offseason that the entrance workplace would have “the required assets out there to considerably complement our present roster.”

Swanson’s signing marks the primary time in two offseasons that the Cubs signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying provide.  This implies Chicago must hand over $500K in worldwide spending cash, and lose its second-highest choose within the 2023 draft.  Whereas shedding a draft choose (at the moment forty ninth general) is not any small matter, the Cubs can even get a bonus choose again since Willson Contreras rejected his QO and signed with the Cardinals.  It will internet Chicago a compensatory choose that may fall between Aggressive Stability Spherical B and the beginning of the third spherical, so roughly Seventieth general.

Atlanta’s compensatory choose can even fall proper alongside Chicago’s choose within the Seventieth-overall vary.  That draft choice will symbolize the final piece of Swanson’s tenure with the Braves, an general very profitable run highlighted by the group’s 2021 World Collection championship.  Because the Braves captured that title, the membership has stated goodbye to each Swanson and Freddie Freeman in free company — a state of affairs that might’ve been unlikely 13 months in the past, given how each appeared like cornerstone items.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has spent a lot of that point constructing a brand new basis, nevertheless.  The Braves have been very aggressive in locking up a number of younger gamers to contract extensions, and likewise swung separate trades with the Athletics to usher in two extra star gamers in Matt Olson (basically Freeman’s alternative at first base) and new catcher Sean Murphy.  This left much less give attention to Swanson, as Atlanta reportedly made him a suggestion within the neighborhood of six years and $100MM earlier than the offseason started, and ever since, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote that the 2 sides “haven’t had any legit negotiations.”

The Braves reportedly had reservations about committing the form of excessive average-annual worth it might’ve taken to land Swanson, because the $25.286 AAV on his Cubs deal would’ve been simply the best on Atlanta’s payroll (Austin Riley’s $21.2MM is the present chief).  Whereas time will inform if the Braves made the suitable choice in shifting on from Swanson, it’s onerous to accuse the membership of being tight-fisted, given how they’re already on tempo for a team-record $196.5MM payroll and are near the luxurious tax threshold for the primary time.

Atlanta may also really feel prefer it has one other younger star able to take the reins at shortstop, as Vaughn Grissom (who performed his first 41 MLB video games in 2022) now appears just like the best choice on the place.  Orlando Arcia is readily available as a veteran backup and you’ll by no means rule Anthopoulos out from one other headline-grabbing transfer for one more shortstop, however it seems as if the Braves are hoping Grissom can turn into the newest homegrown prospect to make a right away impression on the huge league degree.  Grissom already hit .291/.353/.440 in his first 156 profession plate appearances.

Taking a look at each the shortstop market and the higher free agent market, Swanson is the newest participant to money in throughout what has been one thing of a spending free-for-all this winter.  MLBTR projected Swanson for a seven-year, $154MM deal, in order that prediction a minimum of got here nearer to expectations than Bogaerts’ 11-year/$280MM cope with San Diego, Correa’s 13-year/$350MM pact with San Francisco, and even the 11 years and $300MM Turner bought from the Phillies.  Whereas it was usually anticipated that Swanson would obtain the smallest contract (comparatively talking) of the “huge 4” shortstops, the typical annual values of the 4 gamers ended up all falling inside a $2MM vary, because the longer-term offers signed by Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner helped reduce the AAV and subsequent luxurious tax hit.

Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias gained’t command anyplace close to these varieties of numbers, however the two veteran infielders at the moment are the very best shortstop choices remaining on the open market.  For different groups (just like the Pink Sox, Twins, Dodgers, and maybe the Diamondbacks and Angels) that have been on the lookout for shortstop assist and have been a minimum of on the periphery of the markets of the “huge 4,” Andrus or Iglesias may get some appears, or any needy groups may discover the commerce market.

Picture courtesy of USA At present Sports activities Photos