JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Francisco Rodríguez

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing take a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Corridor of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the software above; an introduction to JAWS may be discovered here. For a tentative schedule, and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing mission, see here. All WAR figures confer with the Baseball-Reference model until in any other case indicated.

Francisco Rodríguez was the October Shock. Because the Angels went on their 2002 postseason run, they launched a secret weapon out of their bullpen, a 20-year-old Venezuelan righty with an unholy fastball-slider mixture and the poise of a grizzled veteran regardless of him having all of 5.2 main league innings below his belt. Typically throwing a number of innings and rapidly graduating right into a setup position in entrance of nearer Troy Percival, Rodríguez set quite a lot of information, together with one for essentially the most strikeouts by a reliever in a single postseason (28) whereas serving to the Angels to their first (and thus far solely) championship in franchise historical past.

Although he endured some rising pains on the main league degree, by 2004 Rodríguez was an All-Star, and from ’05-08 he led the American League in saves thrice, setting a still-standing single-season file with 62 within the final of these campaigns. His mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider befuddled hitters, whereas his demonstrative antics — “a melange of pirouettes, fist pumps and primordial screams,” as one writer put it — typically acquired below their pores and skin.

Rodríguez cashed in through free company, signing a three-year, $37 million take care of the Mets, however he was not often the identical pitcher he’d been in Anaheim. He made three extra All-Star groups, however was arrested twice, as soon as for assaulting his girlfriend’s father (and tearing ligaments in his thumb within the course of) and as soon as for home abuse. He pled responsible to the previous and attended anger administration courses, whereas the costs for the latter have been dropped when the girl left to return to Venezuela. Each incidents possible would have interrupted his profession to a good better diploma had they occurred after Main League Baseball and the Gamers Affiliation adopted its home violence coverage in 2015.

Inevitably, groups saved paying Rodríguez to pitch, and by the point his 16-year profession was over, he ranked fourth on the all-time saves listing, behind Corridor of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith, and forward of the 5 different enshrined relievers. That standing, in addition to his quantity 12 rating in R-JAWS, makes him this poll’s solely newcomer in addition to Carlos Beltrán who has a believable Corridor of Fame case, although it doesn’t even assure he’ll get sufficient assist to stay round on the poll.

Rodríguez was born on January 7, 1982 in Caracas, Venezuela. He grew up in poverty in Macarao below the care of his paternal grandparents (Juan Francisco and Isabel Rodríguez), as his dad and mom divorced when he was an toddler. His delivery mom left when he was only a few months previous, and his father got here and went, transferring out for good by the point he was 4. He and anyplace from three to eight uncles and cousins squeezed into the identical two-bedroom flat with “Mother and Dad,” whereas he was estranged from his organic dad and mom.

At age three, younger Francisco would watch his uncles — all at the very least 15 years older, and all baseball fanatics — play for youth league and college groups, imitating the motion on the sidelines along with his personal bat and ball. At age 4, he started taking part in the native equal of Little League, and at seven, he was invited to enroll within the Graciano Ravelo Baseball College, a bare-bones academy in Caracas that was based with the concept of utilizing baseball “to show children to turn out to be higher folks,” as a 2002 Los Angeles Occasions article summarized. Ravelo, a former minor leaguer who would go on to scout for the Rangers, waived the varsity’s $7 month-to-month charge, so Rodríguez would experience a practice an hour every method thrice every week to apply.

By that time, Rodríguez was pitching, impressing onlookers along with his arm energy and fearlessly going through off towards older children. When he was 12, he threw a pitch so nasty that the opposing coach protested he was throwing a breaking ball, violating the foundations of his youth league. It was a variation of his fastball. As Sports activities Illustrated’s Stephen Cannella described it in 2002:

In Rodríguez’s pure throwing movement his index and center fingers roll barely over the ball as he releases it, virtually as if he’s throwing a curve. That unorthodox approach imparts a good spin on the ball that, when mixed with the super velocity he generates, produces a extreme slicing motion that sends the ball boring in on left-handed hitters and diving away from righties. “I don’t actually throw a slider,” he says. “I simply change my arm angle. If I launch the ball at a three-quarter angle, it strikes like a slider. If I throw excessive, it breaks straight down.”

By the point he was 15, Rodríguez stood 5-foot-8 and 155 kilos, topping 90 mph when he pitched and taking part in shortstop when he didn’t. Ravelo tried to signal him to the Rangers for $120,000, however Rodríguez declined. His inventory saved rising; the Braves supplied $400,000 after he struck out 14 whereas pitching for the Venezuelan nationwide crew on the Pan-American Youth Championship match in Mexico. In September 1998, the Angels outbid the sphere (which additionally included the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Rockies), signing the 16-year-old Rodríguez for $960,000.

Rodríguez started his skilled profession with the Butte Copper Kings of the Pioneer League. Working primarily as a starter, he struck out 69 in 51.2 innings whereas posting a 3.31 ERA. He was equally dominant at Excessive-A Lake Elsinore the next yr; elbow tendinitis restricted him to 64 innings however he landed at quantity 71 on Baseball America’s Prime 100 Prospects listing. Although he struck out 11.6 per 9 whereas repeating the extent (with a franchise now primarily based in Rancho Cucamonga), he was hit for a 5.38 ERA and struggled along with his focus in addition to elbow and shoulder woes. That winter, the Angels determined to maneuver him to the bullpen, believing shorter reduction stints would assist his focus.

Rodríguez struck out 120 hitters whereas posting a 2.27 ERA in 83.1 innings break up between Double-A Arkansas and Triple-A Salt Lake Metropolis. In mid-September, he acquired known as to the majors and debuted with a scoreless inning of labor towards the A’s on September 18. He struck out two, together with Mark Ellis, to finish that look; thus started a run of eight straight strikeouts stretching throughout three further appearances, tying the franchise file held by Nolan Ryan. In all, Rodríguez struck out 13 of the 21 batters he confronted whereas strolling simply two (one intentional) and yielding three singles.

By a little-known loophole, the Angels — who received 99 video games and claimed the AL Wild Card spot — have been allowed to incorporate Rodríguez on their postseason roster, changing an injured pitcher (Steve Green) who was eligible for the postseason. He made his postseason debut in Sport 2 of the Division Collection towards the Yankees, winners of 4 straight AL pennants. Although he gave up a go-ahead house run to Alfonso Soriano, he vultured the win when the Angels rallied for 3 runs within the eighth inning, thereby turning into the primary main league pitcher whose first win got here within the postseason. He didn’t permit one other run in his subsequent 11 innings because the Angels downed the Yankees after which the Twins; by the top of the ALCS, he had notched 5 postseason wins, turning into the primary pitcher to take action earlier than the age of 21, and tying the single-postseason file set by Randy Johnson the yr earlier than. In Sport 2 of the World Collection, he retired 9 straight Giants and have become the youngest pitcher to win a sport within the Fall Traditional, at 20 years and 286 days.

Rodríguez’s postseason scoreless streak ended at 13 innings, and his profitable streak ended as properly, as he took the loss through an unearned run in Sport 4 of the World Collection, night issues at two video games apiece. He was touched for 2 runs in Sport 6, one through a Barry Bonds house run, however the Angels overcame a 5-0 deficit to pressure Sport 7, and he threw a scoreless eighth earlier than Percival closed the Giants out within the ninth. All informed, Rodríguez threw 18.2 innings in 11 appearances throughout his postseason run, with a 1.93 ERA and 13.5 strikeouts per 9 (40%). He acquired a brand new nickname alongside the way in which — Okay-Rod — and have become a star in his house nation, with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez publicly congratulating him and privately chatting with him on the cellphone.

That postseason displaying vaulted Rodríguez to quantity 10 on the Baseball America Prime 100 Prospects listing, and anticipation for his official rookie season was excessive. He scuffled early, permitting runs in 9 of his first 15 appearances, ballooning his ERA to five.48, however he rewarded supervisor Mike Scioscia’s endurance by permitting simply 30 hits and 16 runs over his ultimate 63 innings, ending with a 3.03 ERA however simply 9.9 strikeouts per 9, a mark he would exceed in every of the subsequent 5 seasons.

Rodríguez started the 2004 season with 14 consecutive scoreless appearances totaling 17 innings. He crammed in for the injured Percival in June, made the AL All-Star crew on the energy of a 1.34 ERA within the first half, and completed the yr with a 1.82 ERA, 1.64 FIP, 123 strikeouts in 84 innings, and three.3 WAR. The Angels made it again to the playoffs by profitable the AL West, however have been swept by the Purple Sox within the Division Collection; Rodríguez took two of the three losses in reduction, although the second time, in Sport 3, it was Jarrod Washburn who allowed the series-clinching walk-off two-run homer by David Ortiz.

Nonetheless, the Angels had sufficient religion in Rodríguez to let him take over the nearer position when Percival departed in free company. Although his 2005 season wasn’t his finest, he led the AL with 45 saves whereas serving to the Halos win one other division title, one thing they might do in ’07 and ’08 as properly. Aided by the crew’s propensity for enjoying one-run video games, he led with 47 saves, a 1.73 ERA, and a career-best 3.7 WAR in 2006; made his second AL All-Star crew whereas rating second in saves (40) in ’07; and demolished Bobby Thigpen’s file of 57 saves by saving 62 (in 69 probabilities) in ’08, a file that also stands. He posted a 2.24 ERA that yr, made his third All-Star crew, and positioned third within the AL Cy Younger voting. For the 2005-08 interval, he averaged 48 saves with a 2.35 ERA (190 ERA+), 11.6 strikeouts per 9, and a couple of.6 WAR; throughout that span, the Angels performed 202 one-run video games (tied with the A’s for the AL excessive) and posted a significant league-best .564 profitable share. The Angels solely made it out of the Division Collection as soon as in that span, shedding to the White Sox within the 2005 ALCS.

Contemporary off the saves file, Rodríguez signed a three-year, $37 million free agent take care of the Mets, who had coughed up playoff spots due partially to bullpen failures down the stretch every of the previous two seasons and had moreover misplaced nearer Billy Wagner to Tommy John surgical procedure. Whereas Rodríguez transformed his first 16 save probabilities as a Met, his streak led to grisly style on June 12 within the Bronx, as second baseman Luis Castillo dropped Alex Rodriguez’s two-out popup within the ninth inning, permitting the tying and profitable runs to attain. Earlier than the top of the Subway Collection, he exchanged heated phrases with Yankees reliever Brian Bruney, who called his antics on the mound “a drained act.” The 2 needed to be separated earlier than issues acquired bodily, however Bruney quickly apologized.

Rodríguez saved his ERA under 1.00 till June 18, completed the primary half at 1.90, and made the NL All-Star crew. However by season’s finish, his ERA ballooned to three.71 and his stroll charge to five.0 per 9, as he blew 4 of his ultimate 16 save probabilities. He completed the yr with simply 0.1 WAR.

Although he reduce his stroll charge and lowered his ERA to 2.20 in 2010, Rodríguez’s profession took an unsightly activate August 11, when he was arrested for assaulting Carlos Peña, the daddy of his girlfriend. In repeatedly punching the person within the face, he tore ligaments in his proper thumb, and the surgical procedure to restore them would have been season-ending had he not already been positioned first on the restricted listing after which on the disqualified listing, means by which the Mets didn’t must pay him whereas he was bodily unable to carry out. He was charged with third-degree assault, second-degree harassment and felony contempt for sending 56 textual content messages to his girlfriend in violation of a safety order. He pled guilty to the assault cost and was ordered to attend a year-long anger administration program, pay $14,444.65 in restitution for Peña’s medical bills plus $1,000 to resolve the felony expenses, and abide by a two-year safety order.

Rodríguez returned to the Mets in 2011, and he spent the primary half of the season as their nearer, however on July 12, they traded him to the Brewers for 2 gamers to be named later. In Milwaukee, he was moved right into a setup position in entrance of John Axford, which cost him a shot at vesting a $17.5 million choice. He did assist the Brewers make the playoffs, after which the crew re-signed him to a one-year, $8 million deal, an exorbitant value for a setup reliever at the moment.

The Brewers didn’t get a lot of a return on that funding, as Rodríguez slipped to -0.2 WAR whereas posting profession worsts in house run charge (1.0 per 9) and ERA (4.38). He was arrested again in September 2012, this time for home violence and battery towards his fiancée, although information of the arrests didn’t floor till October. Although he was charged with disorderly conduct-domestic abuse (a misdemeanor) through a grievance wherein his fiancée reported being struck within the head, grabbed by the hair, thrown, and kicked within the shoulder and thigh earlier than being dragged to his automobile, the costs have been dismissed when she and a member of the family employees who had witnessed the incident left the U.S. to return to Venezuela.

Along with his authorized troubles having cooled the marketplace for his providers, Rodríguez returned to the Brewers in mid-April through a minor-league deal. He was recalled on Could 16, and shortly took over nearer duties. He notched 10 saves with a 1.09 ERA — together with save quantity 300 on June 22 towards the Braves — earlier than being traded to the Orioles for Nicky Delmonico on July 23. He didn’t pitch very properly in a setup position, serving up 5 homers in 22 innings.

Rodríguez returned to the Brewers for 2 extra seasons, first through a one-year, $3.25 million deal for 2014, then a closely backloaded two-year, $13 million deal for ’15-16. He earned All-Star honors in these two seasons in Milwaukee, saving 44 video games with a 3.04 ERA and 1.4 WAR in 2014 after which notching 38 saves with a 2.21 ERA and 1.8 WAR in ’15. In November 2015, recent off a 94-loss season, the Brewers traded him to the Tigers as a part of a deal that introduced Manny Piña to Milwaukee.

Rodríguez had another 44-save season in him, and on Could 24, 2016, he grew to become the sixth reliever to achieve 400 profession saves. By the top of the season, he had handed Wagner (422) and John Franco (424) to climb into fourth place on the all-time listing.

The Tigers picked up Rodríguez’s $6 million choice for 2017, however he pitched badly, and by Could 7 had blown 4 of 11 save probabilities whereas getting rocked for an 8.49 ERA. The crew launched him in late June, and he briefly tried a comeback within the Nationals’ group, the primary of many who didn’t take. He fell brief in a bid to make the Phillies’ roster within the spring of 2018, and as an alternative spent the season main the impartial Atlantic League with 27 saves for the Lengthy Island Geese, a crew that additionally featured such Remembered Guys as Emilio Bonifácio, Lew Ford, Dioner Navarro, and Travis Snider. Nonetheless looking for a path again to the majors, he joined Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League in 2019 and made 10 appearances in a three-week span however didn’t get any additional. Plans to launch a comeback try in 2020 have been thwarted by the coronavirus pandemic.

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Rodriguez threw his final pitch within the majors earlier than his thirty sixth birthday. That reality alone makes his path to the Corridor of Fame extraordinarily tough from a historic standpoint. Of the 66 enshrined pitchers whose careers ended after 1960, solely 4 ended of their age-35 season or youthful: Sandy Koufax (30), Don Drysdale (32), Catfish Hunter (33), and Bruce Sutter (35), all of whose departures have been injury-related. Koufax was elected on the primary poll, however Sutter — the lone reliever of the bunch — took 13 seasons, Drysdale 10, and Hunter three.

The primary impediment for early retirees is mostly their low counting stats, and whereas it’s price noting that Rodríguez is fourth in saves, save totals alone don’t essentially drive election. Smith retired because the all-time chief with 478 in 1997 and held that distinction till 2006, however went 0-for-3 in entrance of BBWAA voters beforehand and 0-for-15 in all earlier than lastly being elected on the 2019 In the present day’s Sport poll. Hoffman, who held the lead from 2006-11, was surpassed solely by Rivera however wanted three tries to realize entry. Of the 2 different relievers with 400 saves, Franco went one-and-done with 4.6% in 2011, whereas Wagner is now within the eighth yr of his candidacy, having climbed from 10.5% to 51% over the primary seven. Barely additional down the listing, Tenth-ranked Joe Nathan (377) and Eleventh-ranked Jonathan Papelbon (368) went one-and-done on the 2022 ballot, the previous even with the advantage of this scribe’s vote.

With Sutter the low man within the Corridor along with his whole of 1,042 innings, Rodríguez will possible encounter some resistance on condition that he pitched solely 976 innings. He’s forward of Wagner (903) on that entrance, however at a drawback to the person he (roughly) changed in Queens relating to a number of key charge stats:

Clearly, Sutter’s strikeout and stroll charges are from one other period; normalized, he had a 147 Okay%+, which ranks 14th amongst post-1960 relievers with at the very least 800 innings. Rodríguez is fifth at 159, and Wagner first at 190. Eckersley (third at 165), Smith (sixth at 157), Rich Gossage (eighth at 156) and Hoffman (Eleventh at 150) are all within the vary between Wagner and Sutter. Okay-Rod is the one one of many group in addition to Gossage with an above-average stroll charge, 118 versus Wagner’s 95 and Sutter’s 87.

Face to face with Wagner, Rodríguez is at a 6-to-7 drawback by way of All-Star choices, however he has the a lot stronger postseason resumé, with a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings to Wagner’s 10.03 in 11.2 innings, and he has a 124-107 edge through the Hall of Fame Monitor primarily based primarily on the large save seasons and the postseason stuff. Sutter, a six-time All-Star who received the Cy Younger, had a 3.00 ERA in 12 postseason innings in 1982 whereas serving to the Cardinals win all of it; he scores simply 79 on the HOFM scale, however that doesn’t account for his pioneering roles as the primary pitcher to grasp the split-fingered fastball and the primary pitcher whose utilization was typically confined to avoid wasting conditions, two key sides of his Corridor case.

Rodríguez completed his profession with 24.2 WAR (keep in mind, we’re speaking about bWAR right here), and one factor that’s placing about that whole is his profession break up: 16.0 with the Angels from 2002-08 (2.1 per 60 innings), 8.2 with everybody else from ’09-17 (0.9 per 60 innings). He had 5 2-WAR seasons and two 3-WAR seasons with the Halos however by no means reached even the decrease of these two plateaus afterwards, topping out at 1.8 in 2010 and ’11 however slipping to 0.1 WAR or decrease thrice. By “conventional” reliever JAWS, he ranks simply thirty fourth, seven spots under the lowest-ranked Corridor of Famer, Rollie Fingers, and 14 spots under Wagner. By R-JAWS, a hybrid metric that emphasizes leverage by incorporating each WPA and WPA/LI into a median that additionally contains profession WAR (defined in better element here), Rodríguez climbs to twelfth, forward of three of the eight enshrined relievers however six rungs under Wagner:

By this technique, Wagner is one of the best reliever exterior the Corridor, which to those eyes trumps the truth that he’s a bit under the averages of the enshrinees. Rodríguez is additional faraway from that cluster, an eyelash forward of Smith and properly forward of Fingers and Sutter. Even with the slight edge in counting stats over Wagner, to not point out the bigger postseason influence, he lacks the identical degree of dominance that makes Wagner’s case so compelling. He’s definitely acquired some historic significance that helps his trigger, however a lot of that’s from his pre-rookie run in 2002. Sample-wise, he bears resemblance to Andruw Jones, who homered twice as a 19-year-old through the 1996 World Collection and had an important 10-year run (1997-2006) earlier than falling aside in his 30s. However Jones’ quantity 11 rating in JAWS is far more spectacular on condition that he’s up towards gamers akin to Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker from the early twentieth century, the place Rodríguez is twelfth at a place the place seven of the eight enshrinees hail from the previous half-century. Rodríguez’s off-field points supply an unlucky parallel as properly. I’ve included Jones on my digital and precise ballots to this point; for higher or worse I’ve determined to not disqualify candidates primarily based on home violence allegations, although I can perceive a voter deciding to take action.

Rodríguez wouldn’t be solely misplaced within the Corridor of Fame, however proper now I’m not terribly inclined to incorporate him on my poll. Final yr I included Nathan because of his proximity to Wagner, much less as a result of I used to be totally satisfied he belonged than as a result of I needed to assist him get a re-examination from voters; it didn’t work. I’m much less certain that I’ll strive the identical tack with Rodríguez, whose case on the superior stats isn’t as robust, although I haven’t dominated it out. He should still have a shot at sticking round; thus far three of the 15 ballots printed within the Ballot Tracker have included him (eight have Wagner). We’ll see if he will get one other look, each from these eyes and from the voters at massive.