Taylor Walls, Pinch-Hitter | FanGraphs Baseball

Taylor Walls, pinch-hitter. Pinch-hitter Taylor Partitions. I preserve turning the phrases round in my head, like a mantra. Taylor Partitions, pinch-hitter. Partitions, Taylor: hitter, pinch. Generally it makes extra sense to me, generally much less; over sufficient time, something you repeat sufficient appears to lose all which means. It’s known as semantic satiation: your mind begins to understand something as gibberish if it’s repeated ceaselessly sufficient.

On this case, I’m not even certain the phrase made sense within the first place. Taylor Partitions, pinch-hitter? This man? The one who hit .172/.268/.285 this 12 months? Within the recreation to hit? It sounds unusual proper from the bounce. Possibly I began from a defective premise someplace. Possibly pinch-hitter Taylor Partitions solely exists in my head. Possibly that is all a wierd fever dream.

Solely, it’s not. There’s field rating proof of it, proper on MLB.com:

There he’s, pinch-hitting in a playoff recreation. He’s hitting for Isaac Paredes, a right-hander, which provides us our first piece of proof. Partitions is a switch-hitter. Certainly, then he got here into the sport to bat left-handed. Certainly he did: he confronted off towards Nick Sandlin, a right-handed reliever, in that preliminary plate look.

Handedness issues. Left-handed hitters get a lift when hitting towards righty pitchers; right-handed hitters face a penalty. The Rays love boosts and hate penalties, naturally sufficient. Can we write it off as a platoon scenario and name it a day?

We can not. To clarify why that’s not sufficient motive, let’s cut back the rule to an absurdity. I’m left-handed. That’s only a truth. I’m additionally a worse choice than Paredes to face Sandlin. I’d be a worse choice than sending up a right-handed pitcher off the bench to face Sandlin. Being left-handed isn’t sufficient. Having a platoon benefit helps, however it doesn’t override talent.

Taylor Partitions, pinch-hitter. Taylor Partitions, pinch-hitter. Taylor Partitions… pinch-bunter? Possibly Partitions was up there attempting to drop down a sacrifice bunt and manufacture a run. In any case, the Rays had simply introduced on Vidal Bruján, their greatest pinch-runner, at first base. Get him into scoring place, and most base hits may break the scoreless tie.

Certainly, Partitions confirmed bunt late on the primary pitch:

Now, I’m not satisfied that Partitions is a premium bunt artist. He’s efficiently transformed a sacrifice bunt solely 5 instances in his skilled profession. Paredes, for his half, has 10, although solely seven within the final two years. With Bruján on base, although, you don’t must be a terrific bunter; merely placing the ball in play on the bottom would possible be sufficient.

Or would it not be? The Guardians aren’t some inert robotic, sitting there within the discipline immobile as Tampa Bay schemes. Earlier than the 0–1 pitch, José Ramírez took a number of steps towards house:

That act reduce down on Partitions’ margin of error considerably. Ramírez is a superb defender; Partitions, as I discussed, is an detached bunter, a minimum of to the extent that we are able to inform from main and minor league knowledge. True to type, he gave up on his bunting plan and swung away on 0–1:

As you possibly can infer from Austin Hedges, Bruján was on the transfer. The Rays determined to attempt to take second by way of stolen base, leaving Partitions to swing away. Certainly, for the remainder of his time on the plate, Partitions by no means a lot as confirmed bunt, and the Guardians backed off into a traditional protection. Regardless of the Rays wished Partitions for, it wasn’t actually bunting, or they’d have tried greater than a cursory disguised bunt on the primary pitch. Ultimately, Partitions struck out, although Bruján took second anyway:

That simply brings the preliminary query again into focus: why did Tampa Bay desire the Partitions-Sandlin matchup to the Paredes-Sandlin matchup? Paredes had a 106 wRC+ towards righties this 12 months. He has a profession 85 wRC+ towards them, in a sufficiently small pattern measurement that it’s more likely to primarily be noise. A regressed estimate of his platoon talent would counsel he’s a roughly league common hitter towards righties. Partitions has a profession 69 wRC+ towards righties, and it’s not some bizarre artifact of platoon splits; he has a profession 70 wRC+ general.

Is Sandlin a very dangerous matchup for Paredes? He’s principally sinker/slider, with a sweeping breaking ball. He throws the occasional four-seamer, however they give the impression of being principally like slightly-shifted sinkers; they’ve quite a lot of horizontal run and never very a lot trip relative to a “textbook” four-seamer. Paredes struggled towards right-handed sliders this 12 months, as did most right-handed hitters. He didn’t seem significantly inclined to the sweeping selection, posting comparable numbers towards sharp and sweeping sliders, however it’s honest to anticipate that Sandlin would throw kind of nothing however sliders in any case. Paredes’s greatest protection towards sliders is taking them; he solely provided at 18.8% of out-of-zone righty sliders this 12 months, significantly better than league common. If Sandlin may find the pitch, although, it could most likely be an excellent matchup for Cleveland.

Partitions, alternatively, holds up effectively towards sliders. Many switch-hitters do; they all the time have a platoon benefit towards the pitch, and sliders display a bigger platoon cut up than some other pitch sort, particularly sweeping sliders. That eradicated one in all Sandlin’s greatest pitches. However Partitions struggled towards sinkers this 12 months and fastballs usually. That’s been true all through his temporary main league profession. The Rays had been possible exchanging sliders to Paredes for fastballs to Partitions.

It’s clear that the Rays weren’t that fearful about letting Paredes face right-handed pitchers with sliders. He began, which is why he was within the lineup to be pinch-hit for. Cleveland’s starter that day? You guessed it: Triston McKenzie, a righty who throws a slider. McKenzie’s slider is extra sharp than sweeping, however as I discussed earlier, Paredes posted equal numbers towards each sorts of slider. He’d carried out fairly effectively towards the pitch thus far on Saturday, for what it’s value; he took a handful out of the zone for an early stroll and fouled off the one one he swung at.

My guess is that the Rays had been useless set on avoiding the Sandlin/Paredes matchup. They weren’t afraid of utilizing Paredes towards robust righties; they’d actually pinch-hit for Partitions with Paredes towards Shane Bieber the day past. Maybe it was a situational resolution with two outs and the bases empty towards Bieber, and Paredes having way more energy. Nevertheless it’s not like Partitions is the superior on-base play; he struck out extra typically than Paredes and walked much less ceaselessly. It wasn’t a right-hander, then: it was Sandlin particularly.

These single-season numbers aren’t the end-all be-all. Possibly the Rays had been 100% sure that they wanted to keep away from the Paredes-Sandlin matchup. Possibly they had been promoting out for contact with Bruján on the basepaths. If that’s the case, Paredes isn’t a terrific match: he takes quite a lot of pitches, and although he’s not an enormous swing-and-miss man, when he places the ball in play, it’s typically within the air. Possibly they had been optimizing for one thing obscure, like grounders plus line drives per plate look. Besides, that may’t be it: Paredes checked in with a better mark than Partitions there regardless of a fly ball method and an incredibly low line drive price, as a result of he doesn’t strike out fairly often. In order that brings us again to the staff being fully unwilling to let Paredes face Sandlin. Nothing else is sensible.

Taylor Partitions, although! We’re not attempting to determine why Paredes left the sport. We already know why: to get Partitions into the batter’s field. However why did Kevin Money flip to Partitions particularly? He had Jonathan Aranda, a left-handed thumper, nonetheless out there because the final man on the bench. To desire Partitions in that spot, the staff needed to assume he was extra more likely to get on base than Aranda, and I don’t assume that’s the case.

Aranda by no means got here into the sport, although Partitions batted twice extra, as soon as towards a lefty and as soon as towards a righty. In actual fact, Tampa Bay didn’t use Aranda in any respect; he would have needed to pinch hit both for Partitions or Manuel Margot given the gamers remaining, and neither matchup appealed to them.

Possibly the Rays had been in a defensive bind. Partitions stayed within the recreation to play third base. However Aranda can do this, too, racking up 300 innings on the sizzling nook between Triple-A and the majors this 12 months. Partitions is a greater defender, however you must rating some runs earlier than you possibly can shield a lead. In any case, there was all the time the choice to carry Partitions in as a defensive substitution. They clearly didn’t want that final participant on the bench; Aranda by no means entered the sport, in spite of everything.

Did I clear up it? I don’t know. My greatest guess is that there was only a large blinking crimson mild within the Rays’ matchup grid that informed them to keep away from letting Paredes face Sandlin below any circumstances, and that Money most popular Partitions to Aranda for a pinch-hit look. They couldn’t have recognized the sport would drag on for 15 innings, or that Partitions would bat 3 times. They couldn’t have recognized he’d bunt that first pitch foul, or that Bruján would get a number of clear jumps off of Sandlin, granting the staff second base with out a sacrifice.

All of that’s ex-post considering. However the truth stays: the Rays used Taylor Partitions, who was their worst hitter this season and one of many worst on a regular basis regulars within the majors, to interchange Isaac Paredes, who was one in all their greatest. Partitions struck out. The Rays didn’t rating any runs. When you’re in search of a four-word summation of what went improper for Tampa Bay in 2022, you might do worse than “Taylor Partitions, pinch-hitter.” When the chips had been down, he was the most effective the Rays may carry to bear. It wasn’t sufficient.