Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/16/22

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to in the present day’s chat! It’s a crisp fall day in Brooklyn, acceptable for the September stretch run.

WildCard: For those who had been a fan of one of many three (doubtless) AL wildcard groups— would you secretly be rooting for third to commerce residence discipline benefit for a matchup towards the AL central winner? Or would you quite residence discipline benefit towards one of many different stronger (by document no less than) WC groups?

Jay Jaffe: My intuition tells me the chances are higher by dealing with a weaker Cleveland crew even when I’m on the highway, however I fear about getting too cute by making an attempt to steer myself to 1 opponent quite than one other, and my intestine tells me that preserving the house video games could be higher.

Leland: You’re Farhan Zaidi…what do you do that offseason to make the Giants a Wild Card contender in 2023?

Jay Jaffe: screw the division, go for the NL West. My largest strikes could be to retain Carlos Rodan and signal Trea Turner (you can additionally go for Carlos Correa however this retains Turner from returning to the Dodgers). I believe they’re the one doubtless west coast touchdown spot for Aaron Decide if he doesn’t re-up with the Yankees  however I don’t suppose you can match all three of these guys on the payroll

Mike M: Banning infielder shifts doesn’t actually deal with the issue of overpowering pitching.  Why hasn’t decreasing the mound been mentioned extra?  Why didn’t the MLB committee take into account it?  Would you might have most well-liked a lowered mound to the shift ban?

Jay Jaffe: Each time I take into consideration What Should Be Achieved about dominant pitching and take into consideration mound heights or distances, my spidey sense tells me that these modifications are going to trigger extra accidents as a result of pitchers usually tend to attempt to overcompensate for the modifications. I really suppose the pitch clock might need a greater impact by not letting pitchers dilly-dally till they’re able to throw max effort once more

Sodo Mojo: I do know speaking about Julio Rodriguez and the corridor is untimely however for different 21 yr outdated’s with 5 Warfare seasons what’s the price of corridor enshrinement?

Jay Jaffe: Going by bWAR, 17 out of 34 gamers with 5-WAR seasons at age 21 are enshrined, with Trout and Pujols clearly on their means; Andruw, Correa, and Acuña prospects, and A-Rod derailed by his personal errors. I’d say it bodes nicely for Julio, nevertheless it’s not automated. Simply ask Cesar Cedeño (8.0 WAR in 1972).

Matt VW: Devers appears to be like for all of the world like somebody who got here again too quickly from his hamstring damage. The highest and the underside halves of his swing simply don’t synch up in any respect proper now. There’s nothing tangible left to play for in Boston this yr; wouldn’t it make sense to go forward and shut him down? Watching him run the bases proper now’s terrifying.

Jay Jaffe: What little I noticed of him didn’t look nice. Whereas I clearly wouldn’t play him if he’s bought a major damage, i do suppose from a participant’s standpoint, making an attempt to get proper earlier than the season’s finish can carry some peace of thoughts going into the winter. In concept, possibly some days off to relaxation and reset after which a run of video games earlier than the tip, however in fact I don’t actually know the specifics of what Devers is or isn’t coping with.

Jon: How do I let you know aside from Ben Clemens?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve a mustache and Ben is healthier at math.

Sonny: Seems like successful the Triple Crown is one thing that might put Goldschmidt excessive for lots of HOF voters if he will get himself to the doorstep stat-wise.

Jay Jaffe: As Dan Szymborski famous in the present day (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-likely-is-a-triple-crown-winner-this-s…) all people who’s gained one is in besides Miguel Cabrera, who’s on his means. That doesn’t imply it’s going to punch Goldschmidt’s ticket however JAWS already has him a lot of the method to Cooperstown and he’s clearly not going to retire tomorrow so my guess is that he’s going to be a reasonably stable selection by the point he’s accomplished

JJ: Do the Padres miss the playoffs? Soto enjoying under alternative degree, Musgrove and Clevinger struggling, appears like a repeat of final yr the place good gamers simply forgot how one can play on the worst time of the yr.

Jay Jaffe: They nonetheless have a sport and a half on the Brewers and a few 3-to-1 edge by way of the 2 groups’ Playoff Odds. The longer his hunch proceeds, the extra I’m wondering if Soto is definitely injured and never only a bit out of whack

Appa Yip Yip: How is Ross Stripling being so efficient this yr? Is it simply limiting to 2 occasions by means of, or is there one thing new occurring?

Jay Jaffe: Offhand it appears to be like like he’s getting higher motion on his fastballs, doing a greater job of avoiding laborious contact, and getting the nice protection/luck behind him the place Gausman has not, notably with the shift on.

Jay Jaffe: In all probability value a better look, particularly if the Blue Jays make it out of the Wild Card collection

v2micca: Spencer Strider must log 8 extra strikeouts within the subsequent 4.2 innings to interrupt Randy Johnson’s document for fewest innings required to succeed in 200 Ks in a season.  How do you want his possibilities?

Jay Jaffe: That’s in all probability proper on the sting of doable; he’s reached eight strikeouts in lower than 5 innings twice this yr.

Shift ban: It is vitally unpopular amongst individuals I do know my age. We grew up with it as an thrilling a part of the sport. How is mlb going to develop the sport amongst younger followers once they simply hold pandering to the nostalgia of outdated individuals?

Jay Jaffe: that is the primary time i’ve heard the phrase “thrilling” related to the shift.

David: What’s the worth of second base protection beginning subsequent yr? Second base protection traditionally has seemingly been a spot to attempt to put an okay defender with the higher bat. We’re now at some extent the place protection is extra valued and successfully measured AND they are often much less protected with out shifting.

Jay Jaffe: We’re going to should see. There’s undoubtedly been a category of defensively challenged gamers capable of maintain down second because of the shifts; the query is how a lot of that’s the capability to place them extra optimally primarily based on the higher analytics and the way a lot of it’s simply having a rangy shortstop capable of cowl for them, which gained’t be fairly as simple subsequent yr.

Pepper Martin: If the Yankees don’t get LaMahieu and Rizzo and Carpenter and Bader and so forth. wholesome in time for the playoffs, have they got any likelihood in any respect with their one- man offense?

Jay Jaffe: Clearly that might be an issue, however all besides Carpenter are due again throughout the subsequent few days, and there’s a pair weeks for them to stand up to hurry.

YorDaddy: Astros playoff rotation prediction?

Jay Jaffe: My guess is that if he’s wholesome (he comes again tonight) Verlander is Sport 1 and Garcia is the lengthy man within the bullpen

Mike M: How a lot do the Dodgers playoff hopes rely upon a wholesome Gonsolin?

Jay Jaffe: They’ll want him to win a World Collection until Dustin Might can iron out all of the kinks, which is asking quite a bit given his quick monitor document.

Jim M: Provided that the postseason is mainly a crapshoot, are the Phillies (assuming a wholesome Wheeler) the Group No One Desires To Play? Their pitching is sneaky stable, however they are going to want the children within the lineup to rise to the second.

Jay Jaffe: They’ve bought an excellent 1-3 within the rotation however their protection, whereas improved, continues to be unhealthy and I don’t belief their bullpen.

Strasburg: The Washington Submit has a narrative in the present day about Stephen Strasburg not being positive if he’ll come again. Have you learnt if contracts are often insured? Additionally, if stated he was already exhibiting indicators of TOS earlier than signing this contract. If that’s the case, the Nats can’t be considering too nicely of their medical workers.

Jay Jaffe: Some massive contracts are insured however it could add numerous price, and I don’t know what the scenario is for Strasburg’s; we have a tendency to search out out about these items solely in a scenario like David Wright when the crew is actively making an attempt to discourage a participant from enjoying in order that they’ll acquire on the declare

Jay Jaffe: As for the TOS stuff, it’s tough to diagnose and I don’t suppose we’ve heard of one other case in baseball that introduced as Strasburg’s did, with the carpal tunnel challenge on the forefront.

Dick Allen is a Corridor of Famer: Nate Silver relating to the pursuit of the house run document:

“There’s one thing delightfully euphemistic about individuals saying that Aaron Decide is chasing the “Yankee residence run document” or “American League residence run document” once they actually imply the not-credibly-suspected-of-PED-use residence run document.”
I skip the euphemisms
Good luck Mr. Decide and I hope you crew loses each sport. Perpetually.

Jay Jaffe: Gonna disagree. Some persons are utilizing that as a euphemism, however as anyone who lives in New York and watches numerous Yankees video games, I can let you know that individuals do care about 61/62 and wish to see it even whereas understanding that Bonds is out of attain.

Jay Jaffe: And sure, it occurs to be the AL document, too. Which is cool even when we usually don’t spend a ton of time distinguishing between AL and NL data

John Olerud’s Helmet: Whats up Mr Jay! How laborious are you rooting for Albert to make it to 700??

Jay Jaffe: I’ll be sincere, him passing A-Rod was sufficient for me. 4th all-time is fairly rattling particular whether or not it’s 697 or 700

Marko from Tropoja: Which lively pitcher aside from Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, and deGrom (who I believe will get in sometime) has the perfect HOF likelihood, and what number would you set it at?

Jay Jaffe: There’s a giant hole between deGrom and people different 4 by way of likelhood of getting in due to his current well being points. However transferring past that I believe it’s in all probability Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola who present indicators of getting the stuff to final long run.

Manufacturing facility of Disappointment: How early do you often begin keeping track of gamers from a JAWS perspective? Asking for a fan of Andres Gimenez, who’s mainly matching Jose Ramirez step for step in fWAR this yr and solely *simply* turned 24

Jay Jaffe: Until a man has no less than 5 seasons within the neighborhood of 5 or extra WAR it’s in all probability too quickly to take a look at JAWS

Sanford: Intestine response—who do you suppose makes the HOF amongst these SS?

Lindor: 41 fWAR getting into age-29 season
Bogaerts: 34 fWAR getting into age-30 season
Correa: 31 fWAR getting into age-28 season

Different SS from this crop both bought began too late (Swanson), missed an excessive amount of time (Seager), or each (Story) to maintain with these prime 3 in counting stats at this level of their careers (although I’d be most bullish on Seager making up floor in his 30s).

Jay Jaffe: My cash is on Lindor and possibly Correa however the latter has to achieve some sturdiness. Bogaerts isn’t going to be a shortstop for for much longer I don’ suppose.

Harmon Ripkowski: I think about Decide and Ohtani end one and two on most individuals’s MVP ballots.  But when another person cracks the highest two, it’s probably…

Jay Jaffe: …. as a result of they’re making an attempt to sport the system by downvoting a type of two.

I believe cheap minds can differ about which of these two needs to be MVP however I actually don’t see a believable various to both within the AL.

Harmon Ripkowski: Has Jose Abreu modified his strategy or is the relative lack of energy and extra walks drawn one thing else?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t watched carefully sufficient to let you know about his strategy however that’s often a sample related to getting older and with Abreu, who’s 35, we shouldn’t be that shocked. the excellent news is that he’s nonetheless exceptionally productive. An entire lot has gone fallacious for the White Sox this yr however his 143 wRC+ in 142 video games (to this point) has been enormous.

Nestor: Even when he’s extra of a 2WAR man than this season’s numbers, value locking him up? He has been doing this for a yr and   half now (and I… am undecided that IL stint wasn’t load administration)

Jay Jaffe: He’s for actual, and value preserving round. Wouldn’t shock me if there’s an extension coming his means.

Homer lead: I believe the homer lead Decide has is essentially the most exceptional half. I’ve seen individuals hit extra homers, however by no means that many greater than everybody else. Bear in mind when Yordan was like 2 behind?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah that one blew me away

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: as my buddy Nick stated, it’s actually a Ruthian accomplishment

Joe Don: Placing apart competing or contending for the nonce, how far are the Rangers from simply being related?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose it’s that far. Beginning pitching is their massive want they usually’ve bought higher degree prospects in Leiter and Winn, although each have taken their lumps this yr. THey’ll want pitching from outdoors the org, too.

Harmon Ripkowski: Can Gonsolin tie Roy Face for 18-1?

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it as a result of I don’t see him being constructed up sufficient to final 5 innings as a starter in his return.

Tiger’s Fan: If the fashionable sport continues to show harder to hit and accumulate counting stats will the HOF voters have to regulate their standards and use extra stats like OPS+?  It seems nearly inconceivable for in the present day’s gamers (together with Mike Trout) to come back near Miguel Cabrera numbers not to mention Albert Pujols numbers.  What standards would you utilize primarily based on a season like this one?

Jay Jaffe: The overwhelming majority of voters have adjusted to utilizing superior stats similar to OPS+ and WAR. Word the current elections of Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker, neither of whom had the counting stats that make for an automated election. The identical can be true for Todd Helton and Scott Rolen, with protection within the combine as nicely.

Jay Jaffe: Milestones are inclined to make guys automated entries (PED-linked 500 HR guys being the exception) however voters are more and more geared to deal with extra nuanced instances

JAWS: “Until a man has no less than 5 seasons within the neighborhood of 5 or extra WAR it’s in all probability too quickly to take a look at JAWS” Hey look it’s Decide’s fifth 5WAR season. That’s gonna be laborious although.

Jay Jaffe: Decide is an odd case due to his late begin, as famous throughout the pice I linked above

Visitor: Wouldn’t it kill you guys to reply questions aside from from Appa Yip Yip and the identical 3 individuals again and again? There’s no means you don’t discover the names…

Jay Jaffe: Truthfully, I not often take a look at names, I take a look at questions that curiosity me for which I can present concise perception. Do some chat members perceive that higher than others? In all probability, however I don’t spend a ton of time making an attempt to ensure I’m not answering a number of questions from the identical particular person.

Dipoto’s Burner: Is Julio’s current scorching streak vaulting him right into a prime 10 MVP end? He’s bought some greenback payments on the road.

Jay Jaffe: In all probability however he’ll solely get one bonus, whichever is bigger:

• Rookie of the 12 months: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
• MVP and Cy Younger: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
• All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Group,” $500K for being named “Second Group”

Visitor: How a lot fanfare was there when Giancarlo hit 59 homers in 2017?

Jay Jaffe: lower than for Decide as a result of he was in Miami.

Tony: Fast HOF query I’ve been excited about recently, with Buck’s induction, do you suppose there may very well be different “lifetime achievement inductions”? Offhand, I’m considering of somebody like Invoice White, who was an excellent participant after which went on to be a pioneer in a number of roles after retirement, too

Jay Jaffe: Buck was such a singular case as a result of he contributed in so many alternative methods and was so broadly common with most people. I believe White is value a better look however I don’t know that as many individuals find out about his contributions, together with these on the committees that make the poll

not Appa Yip Yap (significantly): bizarre for that chatter to single out somebody who solely bought one query answered

Visitor: Greater seeded Groups ought to get to choose their opponent. Choose a deadline that works logistically, makes it a ranked selection if wanted. Assured drama yearly

Jay Jaffe: I believe the less complicated reply is simply to re-seed the groups after the Wild Card spherical and go from there

Jay Jaffe: okay of us, it’s time for me to move out. Received a number of issues to do earlier than my mother and father arrive for the weekend! Wanting ahead to a enjoyable one, and hope you’re as nicely