The Orioles Are Now Gunnaring for a Wild Card Spot

The Orioles confirmed mercy to minor league pitchers this week, formally calling up infielder Gunnar Henderson, relieving these hurlers of the horrible burden of getting to pitch to him. The workforce’s prime prospect wasted little time making his influence felt, hitting his first main league house run in his second time up on the plate, an extended drive off Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie. And if the ZiPS projections are to be believed, including Henderson down the stretch is about as invaluable an offensive increase as anybody made this summer time, with the apparent exception of a sure southern California workforce sporting mustard-and-brown colours.

So simply how good is Henderson? That’s a query that has shifted notably over the course of the minor league season. For those who return to the winter, he was thought-about a superb prospect, rating 66th within the FanGraphs Top 100 listing and 53rd within the ZiPS Top 100. We weren’t outliers, both; amongst others, Keith Law at The Athletic and Baseball Prospectus additionally put him of their prime 100s.

Henderson’s inventory wasn’t poorly valued, however it shot up so shortly this yr that you just may assume that it was a Reddit meme stonk like GameStop and AMC. Minor league translation printer goes brrr! Earlier than the season, ZiPS solely projected Henderson to amass 1.5 WAR in 2023 with a wRC+ of 87. We’ll get to that up to date 2023 projection in a minute; let’s simply say for now that it’s higher.

The enhancements made by Henderson within the minors this yr had been throughout the board, from energy to plate self-discipline to protection. Combining his performances for Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, you get an general line of .297/.416/.531 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases in 112 video games. That might be sufficient to make him the most effective first base prospect in baseball, contemplating he didn’t flip 21 till late June, however as a participant who can legitimately play shortstop, that’s the type of efficiency that places you within the ultra-elite class.

ZiPS interprets Henderson’s 2022 general at .266/.361/.468. How uncommon are numbers like that? Let’s dip into the database and take a look at the opposite (non-1B) infielders all through minor league historical past (again to 1950) and discover the highest minor league seasons by translated OPS+ in seasons of 300 plate appearances or extra:

That’s fairly a listing of names, together with some gamers you may not instantly affiliate with taking part in the infield, like Raines and Yastrzemski. Solely two gamers on this prime 30 performed shortstop most steadily of their yr: Henderson and Bregman. So naturally, Henderson seems to be much more imposing if we restrict it to simply shortstops!

Now, ZiPS isn’t beginning to carve Henderson’s Corridor of Fame plaque or something, however this represents an exquisite minor league season, it doesn’t matter what place you think about him to be. So it’s hardly stunning to see him shoot up all of the prospect lists in a short time this season; ZiPS would rank him as the most effective prospect in baseball at the moment.

These are meatier projections than Adley Rutschman’s presently final yr, and that’s definitely not damning with faint reward!

It’s the type of efficiency that makes you surprise if the O’s would have been higher off calling Henderson up a month in the past moderately than yesterday. As of this second, ZiPS initiatives the Orioles with a 14.5% likelihood of creating the playoffs. Including 0.7 wins, the quantity ZiPS estimates he’d have added if he had been promoted after the All-Star break, doesn’t sound like an entire lot, however it’s sufficient to bump them to 19.1%. An additional win is at all times essential in a pennant race, however the O’s must win extra video games than their competitors due to the tiebreak eventualities. They already lose on tiebreakers to the Mariners and Rays and should go 7–3 towards Toronto to keep away from routinely dropping a tie with the Jays. Baltimore additionally loses a tie to the Twins, and whereas beating the Guardians tonight would tie them up at 3–3, Cleveland is 4 1/2 video games forward of the O’s in intradivision file, the second tiebreaker. The O’s solely have secured a tiebreak with the White Sox.

No matter the place the Orioles find yourself within the standings, 2022 has been a profitable season for them. By calling up Henderson, it’s been made even higher.