Rookie Standout Michael Harris II Signs $72 Million Extension

Only a few weeks after extending third baseman Austin Riley, Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta Braves are at it once more. This time, the recipient of a long-term deal is without doubt one of the workforce’s two rookie standouts, Michael Harris II. The freshly inked contract runs for no less than eight years, with $15 million and $20 million membership choices in 2031 and ’32 that every carry a buyout of $5 million. All advised, Harris stands to pocket not less than $72 million; the deal might be price $102 million if the Braves train each choices.

That Harris can be signing an extension that takes him into the 2030s in August of 2022 whereas almost doubling up the next-best Nationwide League rookie hitter by WAR would have been a shocking revelation to somebody dwelling within the pre-lockout days. In spite of everything, Harris had not but performed above Excessive-A, and whereas he was wonderful within the Sally League, he wasn’t dominating the best way Julio Rodríguez was at an analogous stage of play. However like Rodríguez, it solely took six weeks of Double-A ball earlier than Harris was able to star within the majors.

When Harris was known as up in late Could, the Braves had been nonetheless scuffling beneath .500, 7 1/2 video games behind the Mets within the NL East. Atlanta’s outfield past Ronald Acuña Jr. was sorely examined, as Eddie Rosario was out with eye surgical procedure, Marcell Ozuna had an OPS hovering round .650, and it felt as if the Baha Males had successful extra not too long ago than Travis Demeritte. Some groups would have taken the trail of least resistance and known as up journeyman fifth outfielder Delino DeShields or everlasting prospect Drew Waters. As a substitute, the Braves went with the bolder transfer, calling up Harris. Not like the opposite choices, Harris was not less than taking part in wonderful baseball, hitting .305/.372/.506 in 43 video games for Double-A Mississippi.

The Braves haven’t been upset with their gamble. Instantly positioned within the beginning lineup in heart discipline, Harris shortly locked up the job, beginning virtually each single recreation; he now stands at a .288/.327/.498 line with 12 homers and a 127 wRC+ over 72 video games. Add in protection performed at a stage such that I’ll name shenanigans if he’s not not less than a Gold Glove finalist, and his marketing campaign thus far tallies as much as 2.7 WAR in lower than a half-season of play.

Suffice it to say, Harris’ projections have modified significantly because the begin of the 2022 season. ZiPS solely had Harris projected for a .242/.294/.380 line coming into the season, primarily due to his brief résumé and lack of expertise within the higher minors, however it preferred his long-term upside sufficient to rank him 89th on the preseason ZiPS Top 100 Prospects listing. If I inform preseason ZiPS that Harris goes to get 272 plate appearances in 2022, his offensive projection is simply is pretty much as good as his precise outcomes 6% of the time.

With full information of his 2022 season, together with his minor league efficiency, the complete model of ZiPS is extra optimistic about Harris than the less complicated in-season mannequin:

ZiPS doesn’t count on Harris to keep up fairly this stage of efficiency, and it isn’t enamored sufficient along with his strategy on the plate to provide him an enormous peak. However that’s nonetheless the projection of a wonderful participant, one who will seem in some All-Star Video games and who you wish to carry on your roster quite than permit to hitch another person’s. How a lot would the Braves have paid Harris if he went year-to-year? That reply is slightly tough. Underneath the outdated CBA’s service time guidelines, ZiPS estimates the Braves would have needed to shell out roughly $41 million over Harris’ six cost-controlled seasons after which $57.5 million for 2 years of free company, totaling $98 million over eight years. However Harris’ rookie marketing campaign adjustments these calculations, as beneath the brand new CBA, a participant who finishes within the high two in Rookie of the Yr voting will get a full 12 months of service time. My award estimator offers Harris an 85% likelihood of ending within the high two within the NL Rookie of the Yr race; hitting free company a 12 months earlier boosts the system’s estimate to $123.5 million. Sum it up, and also you get a valuation of about $120 million over eight years.

Harris didn’t get $120 million, in fact, and he’s buying and selling numerous attainable cash in return for assured cash. It’s tempting to match this to the Ozzie Albies contract, a seven-year, $35 million extension with two very pleasant workforce choices, however Albies had a 12 months extra service time, the next established stage of play, and took so much much less cash. Even falling wanting ZiPS, the Albies underpay has been grotesque; from 2019 to at this time, the Braves have paid Albies much less cash than Bruce Sutter over the identical interval. This can be a team-friendly deal, however it’s not in the identical ball park because the Albies contract, and given the uncertainty in Harris’ baseline and the period of time till he hits arbitration, I believe it may be logically defended.

For the Braves, the advantages are apparent. Apart from Dansby Swanson, Atlanta has their most useful offensive gamers beneath contract for a very long time, and largely at costs which are significantly lower than they’d need to pay in free company for a similar manufacturing. With two-thirds of the lineup now locked up, the Braves can begin to give attention to extending Max Fried and pursuing different beginning pitchers this winter. With the Mets more likely to proceed being aggressive this offseason and into the long run, the Braves will want all of the expertise they’ll get.