A Broken Foot Has Stalled the Matt Carpenter Revival

Maybe no one in baseball has had a rollercoaster week fairly just like the one Matt Carpenter simply skilled. On Friday, the 36-year-old veteran returned to St. Louis for the primary time as a visiting participant and obtained a prolonged ovation from followers grateful for his contributions over the course of an 11-season run, and the nice and cozy reception continued all through the weekend regardless of his now carrying Yankee pinstripes. On Monday in Seattle, nevertheless, Carpenter fouled a pitch off his left foot and suffered a fracture, sidelining him within the midst of a powerful comeback.

The harm occurred throughout Carpenter’s first-inning plate look, when he fouled an 0-1 pitch from Logan Gilbert off the highest of his left foot. “I knew it was broke. I knew one thing was mistaken after I did it.” he said after the sport, chatting with reporters whereas on crutches. He accomplished his plate look nonetheless, placing out with DJ LeMahieu on third base and Aaron Judge at second. “I believed that I might end the at-bat and get that run in,” he added.

By the point Carpenter spoke to the media, x-rays had confirmed the fracture. He’ll meet with a foot specialist upon returning to New York, at which level a timetable for his return ought to develop into extra obvious. “I’m holding out hope that it’ll be a state of affairs the place I might come again in the midst of September and might contribute in the direction of the stretch run,” said Carpenter. “I’m not going to let my thoughts go wherever else that I don’t need. I’m not even going to just accept the truth that this shall be it for me.”

The harm was fairly a comedown after Carpenter’s reception in St. Louis three days earlier.

Regardless of that series-opening single, Carpenter went simply 2-for-12 whereas the Yankees had been swept in Busch Stadium. His return nonetheless served as a reminder of simply how far he had come for the reason that Cardinals declined his $18.5 million possibility on the finish of final season.

Carpenter had spent his complete skilled profession with St. Louis to that time. Drafted out of Texas Christian College within the Thirteenth spherical in 2009, he had a cup of espresso with the Cardinals’ championship-winning group two years later after which spent a full decade bouncing round their infield as a flexible common. He made three All-Star groups, obtained MVP votes in three seasons, outproduced each Cardinals place participant this facet of Yadier Molina, and helped the group to 4 NL Central titles, six playoff appearances, and the 2013 NL pennant. However after hitting a mixed .176/.313/.291 (76 wRC+) with 0.2 WAR in 180 video games and 418 plate appearances in 2020-21, the Cardinals declined his possibility and let him stroll as a free agent.

Carpenter wasn’t prepared to hold up his spikes. Final October, he reached out to longtime NL Central rival Joey Votto for recommendation on the best way to reverse his mid-30s decline; Votto, who struggled from 2018-20, was contemporary off a 36-homer, 140 wRC+ season that helped to cement his Hall of Fame credentials. In a dialog that Carpenter recalled lasting 3 1/2 hours, Votto gave him a combination pep talk and roadmap to fixing his swing, one which centered round a data-driven strategy. Whereas working with hitting gurus Tim Laker and Craig Wallenbrock in addition to former teammate Matt Holliday over the winter, Carpenter switched to a brand new bat and underwent a full mechanical overhaul to enhance his swing path and refine his physique motion.

After the lockout ended, Carpenter signed a minor league take care of the Rangers, one which assured him a wage of $2 million within the majors. After lacking the minimize for Opening Day, he accepted an project to Triple-A Spherical Rock, the place he hit .275/.379/.613 with six homers in 95 PA, however the group didn’t see him as being value an enormous league roster spot. By mutual choice, he was released by the Rangers on Might 19, and signed with the Yankees every week later, after they positioned Giancarlo Stanton on the injured record with a proper calf pressure. Carpenter debuted that day by going 0-for-2 with a stroll and a hit-by-pitch in opposition to the Rays at Tropicana Area.

Carpenter homered off the Rays’ Jeffrey Springs the subsequent day, and he simply saved slugging. His first three hits, and eight of his first 12, had been homers. Regardless of taking part in solely sporadically in the course of the durations when Stanton has been wholesome, he’s continued to wield an extremely potent bat, hitting a jaw-dropping .305/.412/.727 with 15 homers in 154 PA whereas making 16 begins at DH, 11 in proper subject, three apiece in left subject and at first base, and two at third base; he has additionally pinch-hit 12 occasions. On a group the place he’s twelfth in plate appearances, his 2.4 WAR is tied for fourth.

Carpenter’s 216 wRC+ is the very best by a participant with a minimal of 150 PA in a season since 2005 (a cutoff I deliberately made in an effort to keep away from peak Barry Bonds, who topped the mark 3 times from 2001-04):

The record consists of three different partial however extra substantial showings from this season, two of them by teammates of Carpenter previous (Goldschmidt) and current (Choose), two of them by MVPs (Harper and Cabrera), one from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season (Soto) and one which serves as a really apt precedent within the Bronx (Voit). The purpose right here isn’t that Carpenter has outdone the complete seasons above a lot as that he’s sustained this scorching MVP stage for even this lengthy.

The truth is, solely as soon as has Carpenter’s wRC+ been surpassed by a participant with not less than 100 PA however fewer than 300 in the course of the growth period (1961 onward):

This captures a seize bag of late-season call-ups, 2020 stars, and scorching showings shortened by accidents, although the list-topping Brown’s marketing campaign got here whereas he served as an elite pinch-hitter and occasional left fielder; in 48 PA within the pinch throughout “The Yr of the Pitcher,” Brown hit an ungodly .455/.539/.818 with three homers. Had I chosen a better minimal — say, 150 PA — Brown’s 170 wRC+ in 218 PA in 1971 would have cracked the highest 20 as an alternative, and likewise with stathead favourite Tenace’s 168 wRC+ in 165 PA with the 1982 Cardinals.

Right here’s yet one more manufacturing from small-sample theater: probably the most homers by a participant with a most of 162 PA (one PA per group recreation for a full season, with an apparent gerrymandering):

Once more it’s an attention-grabbing mixture of call-ups, accidents, and interruptions, together with Williams’ blazing exhibiting after coming back from the Korean Conflict, throughout which he hit .407/.509/.901 in 37 video games.

It’s not an amazing thriller how Carpenter is doing what he’s doing. His 13.7% barrel price, 42.1% hard-hit price, and 89.8 mph common exit velocity are good however hardly excessive, although the primary of these figures matches his profession finest, set in 2018. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s pulling the ball within the air with nice frequency whereas taking part in for a group whose dwelling ballpark rewards that. Carpenter’s 60% pull price is the very best of any participant with not less than 100 PA, whereas his 53.3% fly ball price is seventh among the many 405 hitters assembly that cutoff. Whereas there are 87 gamers who’ve pulled extra fly balls, solely 11 have hit extra dwelling runs on such balls, together with teammates Choose (20) and Anthony Rizzo (21). Solely Choose has a better wRC+ on such balls:

No one with not less than 20 pulled fly balls has turned a better share of them into homers than Carpenter (60%); Choose is second at 56%, with Alvarez (55%), Hoskins (53%), and Riley (52%) rounding out the highest 5.

Right here’s a have a look at Carpenter’s spray chart, through Statcast (you’ll be able to see the FanGraphs interactive model here):

Carpenter owes a few of that to Yankee Stadium, with its inviting quick porch in proper subject, the place the gap is 314 toes down the road and 385 toes to proper heart, and the place he’s hit 9 homers (together with seven doubles) in 63 PA; in the meantime, he has simply three singles at dwelling en path to a .388/.524/1.082 line. At a 60-PA cutoff, his 329 wRC+ at house is 101 factors larger than that of the second-ranked Trout, with Goldschmidt (226), Choose (205), and Tyler Stephenson (183) the others feasting most on dwelling cooking. Carpenter’s .253/.333/.506 line in 91 PA on the highway clearly isn’t as potent, but it surely’s nonetheless good for a 138 wRC+. Whereas his 387-foot common dwelling run distance locations him within the eighth percentile amongst gamers with not less than 10 homers, his complete of 15 is true in step with his Statcast expected total of 14.8; eight of the 15 had been no-doubters, out in all 30 parks primarily based upon their specs, whereas just one was a doubter, out in seven or fewer parks.

Shedding Carpenter is a blow to the Yankees, who beat the Mariners on Monday night time however entered Tuesday having misplaced 16 of their previous 26 video games, a skid that whittled their AL East lead from 15.5 video games to 10.5 (they misplaced final night time’s recreation on a Thirteenth-inning walk-off RBI single by Luis Torrens). Stanton is again on the IL attributable to Achilles tendinitis, and was solely lately cleared to renew baseball actions; he’s possible not less than every week away from returning. To interchange Carpenter on the roster, the group recalled Miguel Andújar from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The 27-year-old Andújar has hit simply .245/.269/.286 (56 wRC+) in 52 PA this yr, after batting .253/.284/.383 (81 wRC+) with six homers in 162 PA final yr. He owns only a 58 wRC+ and 7 dwelling runs in 328 PA since his 2018 rookie season, when he hit 27 homers and produced a 129 wRC+ and three.7 WAR. A torn labrum in his proper shoulder in 2019 and a left wrist sprain final yr have turned him into an afterthought within the group. He requested a commerce in June, when he was despatched down; at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre he’s hit .293/.337/.498 (118 wRC+) with 12 homers in 267 PA.

The lack of Carpenter isn’t more likely to value the Yankees a division title. However as they scramble to get better their early-season momentum and maintain off the Astros — who at 70-40 are only one recreation behind the Yankees — for the AL’s prime seed, they might actually use a number of extra swings from their 36-year-old comeback child.