Franmil Reyes Gets a Fresh Start With the Cubs

The Cubs added a supply of potential energy Monday afternoon, claiming designated hitter Franmil Reyes off waivers from the Guardians. After hitting a stable .254/.324/.522 for Cleveland in 2021, his second season eclipsing 30 homers, Reyes has had a catastrophe of a 2022, with an OPS barely above .600, simply his worst skilled season.

When you had instructed me initially of the season that Cleveland could be in an actual battle for the AL Central title, I’d have assumed that Reyes could be one of many causes. The Guardians would in all probability really feel equally about him, a fixture in the midst of the lineup since his acquisition from the Padres in that 2019 three-way commerce that included Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig.

It will be inaccurate to name Reyes a well-rounded participant. He’s not quick, doesn’t hit for contact, isn’t significantly selective on the plate, and his protection can greatest be described as “adventurous.” However what Reyes does very properly is weaponizing aggression on the plate into hitting baseballs a really, very great distance. Even in an age throughout which we closely scrutinize the extra scientific points of batter versus pitcher confrontations, a giant dude crushing pitches a mile is a delicacy that ought to by no means utterly fall off the menu. Of Cleveland’s 14 homers of not less than 450 toes for the reason that begin of 2019, Reyes owns 5 of them.

Reyes’ uncooked bodily instruments had been why the Padres had been so eager about signing him as a 16-year-old for $700,000 in 2012, and whereas it took 4 years for him to interrupt out within the minors and switch his physicality into efficiency, the staff didn’t thoughts being affected person. The facility ultimately got here, although with out the common designated hitter within the Nationwide League, his weaknesses with the glove diminished his worth in San Diego.

It’s Cleveland’s very actual playoff hopes that made being affected person with Reyes troublesome. With Nolan Jones now within the majors, solidifying an outfield of him, Steven Kwan, and Myles Straw, the staff’s depth at designated hitter all of a sudden improved. Even in the event you’re assured that Reyes will ultimately bounce again to a level and be a greater long-term hitter than Oscar Gonzalez, it’s exhausting to bench somebody in the midst of a divisional race for somebody with an OPS 150 factors lighter. And if he’s not the DH, Reyes has restricted worth as a task participant, given the shortage of defensive contributions.

ZiPS is, for fairly apparent causes, an amazing deal much less optimistic about Reyes than initially of the season. Previous to 2022, it noticed him persevering with to place up wRC+ numbers within the excessive 120s for a number of years earlier than beginning a reasonably fast decline round age 29/30. And whereas ZiPS does see a considerably higher 2023 forward, it nonetheless represents a major lessening of expectations:

These are the numbers of a roughly common designated hitter, and since common gamers have worth, getting one who has two years of value management remaining on a waiver wire declare is a stable transfer, particularly for a staff just like the Cubs who’re rebuilding.

Now, there’s the issue of the baseballs, an unanswered query that no person outdoors of baseball’s central “mind belief” appears to know, with even entrance places of work probably not understanding what the gear can be like a 12 months from now. The problems Reyes has involving selectivity on the plate and make contact with go far past useless baseballs, however I believe they should be a contributing issue to the collapse in his numbers. His ability in commerce is pummeling fly balls into the stands, and something that makes baseballs much less more likely to go over the fence goes to have larger penalties right here than with a extra diversified kind of hitter. Regardless of no collapse in his exit velocity numbers or bizarre alterations in his launch angle, his flyballs are solely going a median of 328 toes this 12 months, in comparison with 351 final season.

I’m additionally not satisfied it’s his plate self-discipline that’s the reason for the issues. He’s by no means going to be Juan Soto or Barry Bonds by way of pitch choice, however his out-of-zone swing share was commonplace for him within the early a part of the season, floating round 30% as regular. His tendency to chase issues has solely gone uncontrolled pretty lately, lengthy after he had already established that he was having a wretched season. I believe some have gotten the causality arrow backwards; he could also be reacting to his struggles as an influence hitter who all of a sudden isn’t hitting like a serious leaguer.

Can the Cubs repair Reyes? I’m undecided, however he’s proven sufficient that he’s well worth the threat, and nothing ventured, nothing gained. Within the worst-case situation, in the event that they don’t suppose they may also help him flip it round, there’s no extra funding than two months of wage earlier than a non-tender within the fall. But when he reveals some glimmer of a turnaround, he could also be Chicago’s main DH in 2023 and ’24. Hopefully by subsequent 12 months, La Mole can be feasting on pitchers’ errors as soon as once more.