Trades for aggressive steadiness spherical picks happen a few occasions every year. Usually, there are a lot of various moving parts concerned, which might make it slightly tougher to nail down what groups suppose a comp decide is value — there are such a lot of variables related to every participant that it turns into laborious to isolate the burden that the decide is carrying within the commerce. Each as soon as in a while, we get trades the place one aspect of the deal is solely the comp decide, which makes it slightly simpler to get a really feel for decide’s worth. Yesterday, when the Braves acquired the thirty fifth total decide from the Royals for prospects Drew Waters, Andrew Hoffmann, and CJ Alexander, we had a kind of cases.
The decide is probably the most important side of this commerce, but it surely’s worth is extra summary because it not solely represents a participant, but in addition the draft flexibility it affords the Braves, as they add the bonus pool area related to the decide (a shade over $2.2 million) to their pool. Whereas it may appear counterintuitive for the Braves, who’ve a comparatively skinny system, to maneuver three items for one, this commerce feels nice for them (not that it’s dangerous for KC). Atlanta doesn’t want Waters, who is probably going carrying probably the most weight within the deal for the Royals. With everybody now wholesome, the crew has an on a regular basis proper fielder in Ronald Acuña Jr., an on a regular basis heart fielder in Michael Harris II, and a left subject platoon in Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall, whereas Guillermo Heredia, the Platonic splendid of a fifth outfielder, can pinch run, make the occasional begin for Harris towards a lefty, or function a late-game defensive improve for Duvall/Rosario/Marcell Ozuna. If damage happens, Atlanta has different methods of shifting items round to create a greater lineup than one that might in any other case closely function Waters. Even when you suppose he’ll finally be good (extra on that in a minute), he was a superfluous in Atlanta.
If they only draft straight up, the participant the Braves decide thirty fifth is prone to be the perfect prospect of the 4 who’re technically concerned on this deal, partly as a result of this draft class is deeper than typical. Choosing twentieth and thirty fifth total, the Braves are actually the one crew within the again third of the primary spherical that additionally has a comp decide. They could see a possibility to get inventive and blend over- and under-slot gamers at these picks, and so they’re now in place to choose somebody’s pocket if a crew is making an attempt to drift a participant to the comp/early second spherical with an over-slot bonus.
In the meantime, the Royals add a proficient, enigmatic participant in Waters, who was as soon as a top 100 prospect. Waters is on the 40-man, and with Andrew Benintendi probably on his method out the door earlier than the commerce deadline, there might all of a sudden be outfield reps out there in Kansas Metropolis. Whereas Nick Pratto has performed some left and proper subject this 12 months, he has performed solely first base since June 22, and Waters is the one different participant on the 40-man within the minors with outfield expertise. Right here’s what I wrote about Waters a few weeks ago. All of it nonetheless applies:
Waters was a tooled-up second spherical decide who signed a barely below-slot deal and coasted by way of the low minors, incomes a Double-A task to begin 2019 when he was nonetheless solely 20. He hit .319/.366/.481 there, was promoted to Triple-A late that 12 months, and was a unanimous prime 100 prospect the next offseason. Waters’ plate self-discipline, and his normal baseball acumen, turned out to be in a crimson flag space, and since that season, upper-level pitching has exploited his free-swinging strategy; Waters’ efficiency has not solely plateaued, however taken a dive into the 90 wRC+ vary throughout his multi-year Triple-A tenure.
The age-related adjustment one might have arguably made (actually, for a time, I made it) throughout the early a part of his stretch in Gwinnett is much less relevant now, and the 23-year-old Waters continues to chase pitches that he both misses or that restrict the standard of his contact. He nonetheless has uncommon uncooked energy for a switch-hitter who can play a viable heart subject, and though he’s prone to find yourself with a effectively below-average hit instrument such that he’s not an on a regular basis participant, up-the-middle defenders who can injury errors from each side of the plate are likely to carve out a giant league position.
Waters’ lengthy pace, athleticism and arm power permit him to make the occasional spectacular defensive play, whereas his arms and balls abilities are extra of a combined bag. His toolset is just like that of a diluted Aaron Hicks (with out the plate self-discipline), and Kevin Pillar’s batting line offers a good preview of what Waters’ may seem like if he performed every single day, although he doesn’t play protection at Pillar’s stage. Most up to date fourth outfielders are actually simply a part of a platoon someplace and have a tendency to return from the a part of the prospect pool with extra steady hit instruments. As a substitute, Waters looks like an abnormally harmful fifth outfielder.
Briefly, I feel it’s unlikely that Waters turns into an impression huge leaguer, however a change of surroundings seemingly offers him his finest shot to carve that path. A swing-happy prospect like Waters is strictly the sort of prospect basket by which you don’t wish to put your whole commerce eggs, so having Hoffman and (to a lesser extent) Alexander helps to make sure that the Royals will get one thing out of this deal even when Waters goes completely bust. From the Braves listing:
Hoffmann had a nomadic novice profession, beginning at Oakland College in Michigan earlier than a JUCO stint at John Logan CC (IL) and finally a transfer to the College of Illinois, the place he had some dominant begins and a few epic clunkers amid the occasional week or two off. A few of his fastballs had been dipping down into the mid-80s at Illinois, however Hoffmann confirmed a capability to overlook bats with all three of his pitches and the Braves used a twelfth rounder on him.
After he signed, Hoffmann’s velocity stabilized, and he sat 92-93 mph for the remainder of 2021, and has been within the 93-95 vary this 12 months. For a 6-foot-5 man, his levers and arm motion are literally fairly quick, and this, mixed with how effectively he will get down the mound, offers his fastball flat angle that performs on the prime of the zone. His slider isn’t all that tough, residing within the low-80s, but it surely has an enormous quantity of lateral motion and initiatives as a plus pitch, whereas he often turns over a dandy changeup. Mixing all three choices fairly evenly and attacking the zone to date in professional ball, Hoffmann already seems to be like a high-probability back-of-the-rotation starter lower than a 12 months after he was a Day Three decide.
Hoffmann turns into one other quick-moving pitching prospect in a system that’s already stuffed with notable upper-level arms. He and Waters have been added to the Royals prospect listing, which could be discovered here.
Alexander has been taking part in his second full season at Double-A (he truly completed the 2019 season there) and has been on the prospect radar for about four years now. As he’s reached the higher ranges, a giant swing-and-miss gap on the prime of the zone has develop into evident, however he nonetheless has large low-ball energy and might play each nook infield spots. Assuming 1B/DH can be occupied by Vinnie Pasquantino and Pratto for the foreseeable future, there are a selection of different nook bats forward of Alexander on the roster at this stage (Hunter Dozier, Ryan O’Hearn, Emmanuel Rivera, and possibly Nate Eaton), and whereas a few of that group may fall off the roster, it’s unlikely that sufficient of it’s going to for taking part in time to be imminent for Alexander. As a substitute, he seems to be like upper-level depth between now and minor league free company.
From a commerce worth standpoint, this deal is a wash. My prospect grades are subjective, however Waters’ 40+ FV grade (valued at roughly $4 million) mixed with Hoffman’s (a 40 FV pitcher, roughly $1 million) is in keeping with the worth of the 45 FV prospects ($4 million – $6 million, relying on hitter/pitcher) who’re in that late first/comp spherical space. These valuations are much less about placing a greenback signal on anybody and extra about discovering a technique to consider offers like this the place there aren’t simply gamers concerned. Whereas I’d somewhat have Atlanta’s finish of this deal as a result of Waters scares me and I’m significantly enthusiastic about this draft class, the maths round this commerce is fairly balanced.
